Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[MovieMan89]

32 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Coco breaking out in Mexico was probably expected. Maybe not as much so in China and South Korea, but that's good trend, no? Will likely finish with $750M+ WW. Not bad at all. And, isn't their next release Incredibles 2? That's gonna make a killing. Pretty much locked for $1B+ WW. I think they're alright.

A huge gross was always expected (25-35m). 60m on the other hand is a whole other story. Shattered the all time record of Avatar and grossed like 30% more. That could have never been expected. 

Edited January 15, 2018 by MovieMan89

[forg]

So happy for The Greatest Showman's box office! Love seeing strong holds week to week!

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

A huge gross was always expected (25-35m). 60m on the other hand is a whole other story. Shattered the all time record of Avatar and grossed like 30% more. That could have never been expected. 

True. Just hard to find much fault in a studio that has a critically acclaimed award winning flick that's gonna do $750M to $800M WW. And, then, they follow it up with the Incredibles 2... Which will be huge. Potentially Finding Dory huge.

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, tonga said:

Of course!

 

I2 can go all the way up to 1.1B if it really speicale 

Pretty much impossible for 1.1b, imo. 450 should be the ceiling DOM, with 350-400 being most likely. The first was nowhere near as big of an OS success as Nemo, and Dory did $542m OS. Even with a huge China breakout, 600 would have to be the ceiling OS. OS markets might be pretty superhero fatigued too after IW and DP2. I'd guess 375/450 for 825m WW. 

[forg]

I'm also a little sad Coco didn't break out big time DOM (250M+) but I was also one of the people worried it will be The Good Dinosaur 2.0 but thankfully it didn't so I'm satisfied with the box office performance especially OS. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, forg said:

I'm also a little sad Coco didn't break out big time DOM (250M+) but I was also one of the people worried it will be The Good Dinosaur 2.0 but thankfully it didn't so I'm satisfied with the box office performance especially OS. 

Yeah... It didn't seem to be a flick that would resonate with the DOM GA as much as other Pixar fare. $200M+ DOM is fine, especially given the breakout OS.

Edited January 15, 2018 by JohnnyGossamer

[DAJK]

Coco's overseas performance, combined with Paddington's domestic box office, makes me like international numbers more than domestic now 

[meriodejaneiro]

26 minutes ago, tonga said:

Of course!

 

I2 can go all the way up to 1.1B if it really speicale 

 

47 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Coco breaking out in Mexico was probably expected. Maybe not as much so in China and South Korea, but that's good trend, no? Will likely finish with $750M+ WW. Not bad at all. And, isn't their next release Incredibles 2? That's gonna make a killing. Pretty much locked for $1B+ WW. I think they're alright.

Well, The Incredibles didn't even show in China, so it's a mystery how TI2 will perform there. If tagged as "from the creators of Coco" may help. Also, a limited 1 or 2 weeks release in China for The Incredibles last year, or even this year could have helped too. I'm not sure an animation movie can reach the $1B without China's push.

 

From the 6 $1B+ ww animation movies, 3 of them wouldn't be there if not for China's bo (Zootopia, Dory, DM3). And the other 3 are Frozen (easily over 1.2B without China's 48M), Minions (1.09B without China 68M) and TS3 (didn't release in China). And I don't see The Incredibles on the Toy Story level. 

 

I see TI2 missing the $1B by few, unless it over-performs in most Europe (UK, Germany, France), Japan, and dom. 

[MikeQ]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Even if 800 happens (which is really making a big assumption that it's going to be massive in Japan), you have to factor in that if it had behaved like normal Pixar in China it would have probably done 25-30m and if it hadn't been an outright phenomenon in Mexico, it probably would have done around 30m (which is still massive there). So subtract nearly 200 off the gross. 550-600 wouldn't have been a disaster, but I don't think Disney would have been thrilled with the number either with a $225m budget. That's probably really pushing it for a profit when you factor in marketing. And Coco isn't some big merch seller either. So it got very lucky to have the Mexico and China performances. 

 

The logic behind this kind of argument just doesn't hold up. If we are subtracting the grosses from the best markets for Coco, then we have to do that for every film and its best markets. Films resonate in different ways and do better in various markets for various reasons. This argument boils down to, 'If Coco hadn't done well, it wouldn't have done well." It's a strange argument to make.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by MikeQ

[KP1025]

15 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

 

Well, The Incredibles didn't even show in China, so it's a mystery how TI2 will perform there. If tagged as "from the creators of Coco" may help. 

 

I don't think this would help. Moana was marketed in China by having Zootopia characters in the ads, but it didn't work well at all. Moana only made $33 million compared to $235 million of Zootopia. The good news is that superheroes play better in China, with BH6 making $84 million. I wouldn't expect much more than that for Incredibles 2, maybe $100 million optimistically for now. 

[MovieMan89]

It's unrealistic to expect more than 900 WW for I2. 800 is already good. 

[MovieMan89]

32 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

The logic behind this kind of argument just doesn't hold up. If we are subtracting the grosses from the best markets for Coco, then we have to do that for every film and its best markets. Films resonate in different ways and do better in various markets for various reasons. This argument boils down to, 'If Coco hadn't done well, it wouldn't have done well." It's a strange argument to make.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

That's not really what I was saying though. I was saying it IS a success, but got lucky that it overperformed expectations so much in Mexico and some Asian countries to be that success. 

[MrGamer]

[75Live]

Just now, Boxofficerules said:

Wtf?

 

he obviously has issues.  Shame, hope he gets help

Edited January 15, 2018 by 75Live

[MrGamer]

I've changed my mind. Raegr and his alts should stay. This shit's hilarious. 

[John Marston]

Coco did great overseas. Domestic it opened great but legs were surprisingly average

[WrathOfHan]

I have to wonder if piracy is affecting CMBYN at all. I just took a look at what screeners have leaked so far, and CMBYN has been leaked since December 21. SPC is taking forever to expand it, and given the nature of the film, it won't hit many areas.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I have to wonder if piracy is affecting CMBYN at all. I just took a look at what screeners have leaked so far, and CMBYN has been leaked since December 21. SPC is taking forever to expand it, and given the nature of the film, it won't hit many areas.

Or maybe, ya know, they're waiting until they can piggyback on the Oscar nominations because it isn't the kind of movie that'll do well beyond the metropolitan areas without them? Just a thought.

 

FWIW SPC has now begun running TV spots for it (they weren't before). CNN also did a segment with Timothee and Armie about the movie last week too.

Edited January 15, 2018 by filmlover

[JonathanLB]

Or - I know it’s crazy - but it could be because most (like 99% of) people have zero interest in seeing a gay movie with pretentious dialogue and absolutely no interest at all for almost anyone. The movie just sucked. Even if it wasn’t gay, it would just be a bad Nicholas Sparks novel made into a movie, that’s how it felt. It’s not like there’s any story to propel the film. It was absolutely godawful, one of the most unwatchable movies I can imagine. They won’t convince anyone outside of a major metro area to see that and even then good luck! 

[filmlover]

Just now, JonathanLB said:

Or - I know it’s crazy - but it could be because most (like 99% of) people have zero interest in seeing a gay movie with pretentious dialogue and absolutely no interest at all for almost anyone. The movie just sucked. Even if it wasn’t gay, it would just be a bad Nicholas Sparks novel made into a movie, that’s how it felt. It’s not like there’s any story to propel the film. It was absolutely godawful, one of the most unwatchable movies I can imagine. They won’t convince anyone outside of a major metro area to see that and even then good luck!