Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, JonathanLB said:

Or - I know it’s crazy - but it could be because most (like 99% of) people have zero interest in seeing a gay movie with pretentious dialogue and absolutely no interest at all for almost anyone. The movie just sucked. Even if it wasn’t gay, it would just be a bad Nicholas Sparks novel made into a movie, that’s how it felt. It’s not like there’s any story to propel the film. It was absolutely godawful, one of the most unwatchable movies I can imagine. They won’t convince anyone outside of a major metro area to see that and even then good luck! 

[aabattery]

 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

It's gonna finish higher than every Sony movie ever except the first two Spider-Man movies from 2002/2004 (heck, it might even beat the second). Crazy run.

[La Binoche]

41 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Or - I know it’s crazy - but it could be because most (like 99% of) people have zero interest in seeing a gay movie with pretentious dialogue and absolutely no interest at all for almost anyone. The movie just sucked. Even if it wasn’t gay, it would just be a bad Nicholas Sparks novel made into a movie, that’s how it felt. It’s not like there’s any story to propel the film. It was absolutely godawful, one of the most unwatchable movies I can imagine. They won’t convince anyone outside of a major metro area to see that and even then good luck! 

Yeah, the movie had beautiful scenery, a great soundtrack, some wonderful performances...but it just meandered. It worked as a book because you were in the character's head at all times. 

[KC7]

49 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Or - I know it’s crazy - but it could be because most (like 99% of) people have zero interest in seeing a gay movie with pretentious dialogue and absolutely no interest at all for almost anyone. The movie just sucked. Even if it wasn’t gay, it would just be a bad Nicholas Sparks novel made into a movie, that’s how it felt. It’s not like there’s any story to propel the film. It was absolutely godawful, one of the most unwatchable movies I can imagine. They won’t convince anyone outside of a major metro area to see that and even then good luck! 

[aabattery]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's gonna finish higher than every Sony movie ever except the first two Spider-Man movies from 2002/2004 (heck, it might even beat the second). Crazy run.

 

It might beat both

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

It might beat both

[Apollo2xx]

50 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Yeah, the movie had beautiful scenery, a great soundtrack, some wonderful performances...but it just meandered. It worked as a book because you were in the character's head at all times. 

That's the reason I don't like to watch "Oscar" movies because a lot of them have great cinematography and acting but the story is just plain boring.

[dxmatrixdt]

14 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I feel bad about Proud Mary, although it’s PTA was best among the new films I suppose.

 

Solid but unremarkable for Communter. Dreadful for Paddington 2. 

 

Great for The Post and Jumanji. Ok for Insidious 4. 

 

I, Tonya has also managed to keep really solid PTA’s since it opened. If it gets some nominations it could end with a decent total.

 

Molly’s Game is suffering at just $20m. Social Network it ain’t. 

 

Yeah, ticket sales averaged in the 200 range per location on Saturday for Commuter, Proud Mary, and 180 range for Insidious, Showman, Star Wars, with The Post amost getting to 290.  For comparison, Insidious did about 360 last Friday without previews and 370 on Saturday.  Insidious 4's Sunday sold about as many tickets/location avg as the new releases/topperformingholders this weekend. 

[AndyK]

2 hours ago, La Binoche said:

Yeah, the movie had beautiful scenery, a great soundtrack, some wonderful performances...but it just meandered. It worked as a book because you were in the character's head at all times. 

I know some people like to read romantic novels, but by christ just the trailer to that movie was enough to tell me it was a god-dam awful load of nothingness.

[dxmatrixdt]

Hostiles takeover of 3,000 theaters next weekend will be bad news for some of the holdovers.  Jumanji will probably loose a small chunk just by default of loosing premium screens to 12 Strong.  If it holds in 3,700+ places, maybe it is because it is still adding elsewhere.  3,702 is the second most current TC's  for Paddington 2, and Jumanji could tie this number for this as most for next weekend.  -147 locations for Jumanji

 

If Jumanji retains 70% of its Saturday avg audience on 3702 locations, it might score $5k per location.  Jungle Book did 17.1, 18.5 might be maximum, 315.6 total after 5th weekend. 

J will want to compete with Maze Runner on weekend number 6.  I see 90% of its initial 3,765 locations as a solid theater count going against MR3.  That would be 3,388.5 locations, and 70% of the previous hot 5k PTA would give it 3.5k PTA for this weekend,  Gives a sixth weekend of 11.9 million, 327.5 total.

Weekend 7 for J should be good.  It should post above 10 against Maze Runner, and then have Super Bowl weekend to post another solid number.  Here are th 7th weekends.  http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/moreweekends.htm?page=7&p=.htm

Winchester will probably grab #1 and Jumanji might scratch 9 million more for this weekend in over 3,000 locations taking it to 340. 

Then weekends #8 and #9 will be heavy http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/

Take 6M for weekend #8 and 4M for weekend #9 as best bet.  Add in 10 million for weekdays, Valentines Day, Presidents Day Monday, and Feb 20-22 and the total could be 360. 

At this point, J is in its 10 weekend and the final weekend for February.  Another bombardment of films should bring its theater counts below 1,000 if it was not already.  If J is to reach $363,636,636, +10% of that reach would be 400 million.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Matrix4You

[peludo]

After this weekend, Jaws has been expelled from the top 100 unadjusted after 43 years...

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, peludo said:

After this weekend, Jaws has been expelled from the top 100 unadjusted after 43 years...

 

[a2k]

20 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Hostiles takeover of 3,000 theaters next weekend will be bad news for some of the holdovers.  Jumanji will probably loose a small chunk just by default of loosing premium screens to 12 Strong.  If it holds in 3,700+ places, maybe it is because it is still adding elsewhere.  3,702 is the second most current TC's  for Paddington 2, and Jumanji could tie this number for this as most for next weekend.  -147 locations for Jumanji

 

If Jumanji retains 70% of its Saturday avg audience on 3702 locations, it might score $5k per location.  Jungle Book did 17.1, 18.5 might be maximum, 315.6 total after 5th weekend. 

J will want to compete with Maze Runner on weekend number 6.  I see 90% of its initial 3,765 locations as a solid theater count going against MR3.  That would be 3,388.5 locations, and 70% of the previous hot 5k PTA would give it 3.5k PTA for this weekend,  Gives a sixth weekend of 11.9 million, 327.5 total.

Weekend 7 for J should be good.  It should post above 10 against Maze Runner, and then have Super Bowl weekend to post another solid number.  Here are th 7th weekends.  http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/moreweekends.htm?page=7&p=.htm

Winchester will probably grab #1 and Jumanji might scratch 9 million more for this weekend in over 3,000 locations taking it to 340. 

Then weekends #8 and #9 will be heavy http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/

Take 6M for weekend #8 and 4M for weekend #9 as best bet.  Add in 10 million for weekdays, Valentines Day, Presidents Day Monday, and Feb 20-22 and the total could be 360. 

At this point, J is in its 10 weekend and the final weekend for February.  Another bombardment of films should bring its theater counts below 1,000 if it was not already.  If J is to reach $363,636,636, +10% of that reach would be 400 million.

NATM 22 4-day, 190.5 cume + 60.5 more after Monday = 251 dom

JUM2  34 4-Day, 290.5 cume + ???

 

Looking at the above equation, a significant under-performance from now on and adding only 60.5 more like NATM despite a much bigger 34 vs 22 4-day gives JUM2 351. IMO it cannot go below that and would have to erode fast.

 

NATM like legs give 290.5 + (34/22)*60.5 = 384 dom

 

If 350 is the low-end and 385 is the realistic case, then 420-425 becomes the ceiling.

 

Edit: Fun thing is that I have considered behaving like NATM as the realistic case, while it's been trending better. So taking down GOTG2 and then 400 dom is pretty realistic at this point: adding 100-110 more to it's cume after a 27+ 3-day/34+ 4-day.

Edited January 15, 2018 by a2knet

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, peludo said:

After this weekend, Jaws has been expelled from the top 100 unadjusted after 43 years...

 

9 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

We need a bigger chart

[MovieMan89]

16 minutes ago, peludo said:

After this weekend, Jaws has been expelled from the top 100 unadjusted after 43 years...

Still nowhere near as tragic as BatB knocking ANH out of the top 10 for the first time in 40 years last year. 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Or - I know it’s crazy - but it could be because most (like 99% of) people have zero interest in seeing a gay movie with pretentious dialogue and absolutely no interest at all for almost anyone. The movie just sucked. Even if it wasn’t gay, it would just be a bad Nicholas Sparks novel made into a movie, that’s how it felt. It’s not like there’s any story to propel the film. It was absolutely godawful, one of the most unwatchable movies I can imagine. They won’t convince anyone outside of a major metro area to see that and even then good luck! 

Hmm.

 

I don’t believe this for a second. 

[aabattery]

23 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

 

I can do better than this.

 

Edit: 

Edited January 15, 2018 by aabattery

[dxmatrixdt]

Next weekend, Hostiles will probably get 3,000 locations. 

12 Strong could push to 3,000

Den of Thieves could go as high as 10% over its 2,400+ as 2,640 locations.

 

I mentioned above, Paddington 2 was second most at 3,702 this week.  It could  hold flat and tie with Jumanji next weekend.

3,702 - Paddington 2

3,702 - Jumanji

3,000 - Hostiles

3,000 - 12 Strong

2,640 - Den of Thieves

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=roadsideattractions.htm

Roadside Attractions has taken films upwards of 500 locations in 2016 and 2017.  If Phantom Thread adds 500 and gets to 562, that makes it simple to group new release 'Forever My Girl' with Phantom Thread for TC's

3,702 - Paddington 2

3,702 - Jumanji

3,000 - Hostiles

3,000 - 12 Strong

2,640 - Den of Thieves

3,702 - Paddington 2

3,702 - Jumanji

3,000 - Hostiles

3,000 - 12 Strong

2,640 - Den of Thieves

562 Phantom Thread

562 Forever My Girl

 

I, Tonya has the potential to double its 517 next weekend.  1,034 (+517).

Lady Bird should stabilize at 652.

Shape of Water should stabilize at 723.

3 Billboards saw same dense crowds in 1,000 locations as it did with 310 on Monday.  No reason it should shed too much. 

Call Me By Your Name probably doubles its TC's as a maximum.  348 (+174).

Disaster Artist might have to fight to retain 371 locations. 

Marshall's performance is bewildering right now.  It may half its 378 locations next weekend.  (-189)

Coco seems like it still has a few more weekends to perform well.  It might only loose 2/3 of its TC's next weekend.

JL, Thor, DH2, should be settling into second run theaters and so might just loose 20 locations each.

3,702 - Paddington 2 - weekend #2

3,702 - Jumanji (-147)

3,000 - Hostiles

3,000 - 12 Strong

2,892 - Commuter - weekend #2

2,819 - The Post - weekend #2

2,640 - Den of Thieves

2,125 - Proud Mary - weekend #2

1,034 - I, Tonya (+517)

922 - 3 Billboards (-100)

908 - Coco (-454)

723 - Shape of Water

562 - Phantom Thread +500

562 - Forever My Girl - new

371 - Disaster Artist

348 - Call Me By Your Name +174

222 - Thor (-20)

206 - Justice League (-20)

206 - Downsizing (-206)

189 - Marshall (-189)

181 - Daddy's Home 2 (-20)

101 - Father Figures (-100)

 

This should 22 movies and 30,415 theater counts.  Next weekend should see at least 45,000.  10,393 TC's of new product are shown as incoming for next week.  (-1,256) TC's are shown to be marked off here.  Take this list shown above, and then see what you can get by eliiminating 7,000 more theater counts minimum to these following movies.  (adjust further TC losses for movies shown above if you would rather do the accounting there).

 

Other movies for up to 7,000 TC losses.

Insidious 4, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars, Pitch Perfect 3, Darkest Hour, Molly's Game, Ferdinand, Wonder, All the Money in the World.

That is 9 movies, 777.77 avg/movie.  just write out each of these movies.  the current theater counts they have, and try to get rid of 7,000 locations.  then add it into the rest above.  it can be fun and it is most likely to happen and shows where each movie can be headed from week to week.  then use the Jumanji ^^ analysis above to play the films (of interest) out week to week and the impact the film and studio will suffer in the weeks of February but should gain in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl .

 

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

13 minutes ago, a2knet said:

NATM 22 4-day, 190.5 cume + 60.5 more after Monday = 251 dom

JUM2  34 4-Day, 290.5 cume + ???

 

Looking at the above equation, a significant under-performance from now on and adding only 60.5 more like NATM despite a much bigger 34 vs 22 4-day gives JUM2 351. IMO it cannot go below that and would have to erode fast.

 

NATM like legs give 290.5 + (34/22)*60.5 = 384 dom

 

If 350 is the low-end and 385 is the realistic case, then 420-425 becomes the ceiling.

 

Edit: Fun thing is that I have considered behaving like NATM as the realistic case, while it's been trending better. So taking down GOTG2 and then 400 dom is pretty realistic at this point: adding 100-110 more to it's cume after a 27+ 3-day/34+ 4-day.

just watch out for the back 3 weeks of February.  It will have to rank amongst the best in weekends #6, #7 and #8 to have a shot at 425.  It is possible the way the weekends have swung out of the holidays and if the weather is good, it might hold.  i have yet to look at NATM other than its MLK Monday relationship with previous respective dailies