Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[DeeCee]

I just remembered. TLJ didn’t drop 2000 theatres or whatever that ridiculous “rumour” was. 

[a2k]

TGS's 4th weekend 4-day of 14.5 will beat it's 5-day ow of 13.4

[dxmatrixdt]

6 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

 

Other movies for up to 7,000 TC losses.

Insidious 4, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars, Pitch Perfect 3, Darkest Hour, Molly's Game, Ferdinand, Wonder, All the Money in the World.

That is 9 movies, 777.77 avg/movie.  just write out each of these movies.  the current theater counts they have, and try to get rid of 7,000 locations.  then add it into the rest above.  it can be fun and it is most likely to happen and shows where each movie can be headed from week to week.  then use the Jumanji ^^ analysis above to play the films (of interest) out week to week and the impact the film and studio will suffer in the weeks of February but should gain in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl .

 

 

 

Currently, these are the 9 movies and their respective TC's...

Insidious 4 - 3,150

Star Wars - 3,090

Greatest Showman - 2,938

Pitch Perfect 3 - 2,505

Darkest Hour - 1,693

Molly's Game - 1,708

Ferdinand - 2,154

Wonder - 970

All the Money in the World - 1,408

 

With the Hostile 3,000 takeover, Molly's Game is going to be the one to probably take the biggest hit.  Places where it is not performing will give it up more likely now, maybe.  All the Money should shed a little more, but it will still find its spots.  I got Greatest Showman ceding 10% and Insidious and Star Wars dropping 500 each with Insidious on the hook for more. 

(-1,200) All the Money in the World  (208)

(-1,400) Ferdinand (754)

(-425) The Greatest Showman (2,513)

(-700) Insidious (2,450)

(-600) Star Wars (2,490)

(-900) Pitch Perfect (1,605)

(-425) Darkest Hour (1,268)

(-700) Molly's Game (1,008)

(-650) Wonder (320)

 

[dxmatrixdt]

These should suffice for next week for figuring out running totals.  Bring Jumanji's Saturday down 30% in PTA and make the next weekend out to have $5,000 PTA.  Use 3,700 theaters and get 18.5.  Use these below and change if desired.  It seems as if the Maze Runner weekend will not affect holdovers.  Previous years continued net expansion of TC's on the second weekend after MLK.  The most amount of movies being shown then should be at its peak and then hold that for the Winchester weekend during Super Bowl weekend.  It looks like during Maze Runner's weekend, you should only subtract about 4,000 due to Maze Runner only.  Then there should be a net expansion of 1,500+ which would be attributed to expansions. 

 

These 31 movies show 43,031 Theater counts.  This list shows 8,056 TC's are departing from this week to next, and 10,393 of new TC's incoming.  This gives a net +2,337 from the third weekend of January to the fourth weekend.  Then Super Bowl is on Feb 3rd with Winchester getting 3,000 and  no net gain from fourth January weekend.  that means all Academy Award expansions will have to be balanced with TC losses!   the previous weekend (maze Runner) should show highest expansion yet for Academy Award runners, and depending on how they go, will determine how they expand further over Super Bowl Weekend.  Remember, max screens because the following 3 weeks of February will be hacking and slashing TC counts.  Awards movies should be competitive, but I am sure if you follow it, you will see these films really spread around well compared to like, when Thanksgiving release TC's crumble during the 10 Days of XMAS box office. 

 

3,702 - Paddington 2 - weekend #2

3,702 - Jumanji (-147)

3,000 - Hostiles

3,000 - 12 Strong

2,892 - Commuter - weekend #2

2,819 - The Post - weekend #2

2,640 - Den of Thieves

2,513 - The Greatest Showman (-425)

2,490 - Star Wars (-600)

2,450 - Insidious 4 (-700)

2,125 - Proud Mary - weekend #2

1,605 - Pitch Perfect 3 (-900)

1,268 - Darkest Hour (-425)

1,034 - I, Tonya (+517)

1,008 - Molly's Game (-700)

922 - 3 Billboards (-100)

908 - Coco (-454)

754 - Ferdinand (-1,400)

723 - Shape of Water

562 - Phantom Thread +500

562 - Forever My Girl - new

371 - Disaster Artist

348 - Call Me By Your Name +174

320 - Wonder (-650)

222 - Thor (-20)

208 - All the Money in the World (-1,000)

206 - Justice League (-20)

206 - Downsizing (-206)

189 - Marshall (-189)

181 - Daddy's Home 2 (-20)

101 - Father Figures (-100)

Edited January 15, 2018 by Matrix4You

[dxmatrixdt]

 

Ok thanks for reading. 

 

The fourth weekend of January should stabilize with Maze Runner opening in probably 4,000 locations. 

The 2018 Academy Award nominations are set for announcement on Tuesday, January 23rd, and I am hankering to do a very brief guesstimate of the nominations.  What I mean is, which ones will get alot, do a top 7 of each category, dont stress over the song and score categories.  be back.

[weresweresweres]

11 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

 

Hm... still at 383M. 

Has it been near $400M since friday? 

 

383 is near 400 And I have no idea if Scott wanted to say that he predicts that Jumanji will be near 400 after weekend, or near 400 in day when he was writing his article.

[meriodejaneiro]

13 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

 

383 is near 400 And I have no idea if Scott wanted to say that he predicts that Jumanji will be near 400 after weekend, or near 400 in day when he was writing his article.

But if 383 was on sunday ... probably on friday was a bit further away from 400. 

 

Just saying don't trow unreal hypothetical numbers ironically to someone just to give discredit.

[weresweresweres]

42 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

But if 383 was on sunday ... probably on friday was a bit further away from 400. 

 

Just saying don't trow unreal hypothetical numbers ironically to someone just to give discredit.

Lol I didn't throw unreal hypothetical numbers I just quoted Scott Mendelson. I have no idea why you are quoting me and then you are discussing with Scott numbers. 

Edited January 15, 2018 by weresweresweres

[dxmatrixdt]

28 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

 

Ok thanks for reading. 

 

The fourth weekend of January should stabilize with Maze Runner opening in probably 4,000 locations. 

The 2018 Academy Award nominations are set for announcement on Tuesday, January 23rd, and I am hankering to do a very brief guesstimate of the nominations.  What I mean is, which ones will get alot, do a top 7 of each category, dont stress over the song and score categories.  be back.

20 minutes with http://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2018/

Looking at odds for borderline picks and just shooting from the gut here. 

Only saw Dunkirk, Get Out, Big Sick, Wonder Woman, BR2049, Beguiled, Baby Driver of the majors.

Ranking them

 

S Editing                  S Mixing                        VFX                  Animated           Song                     Score

1 Dunkirk                 1 Dunkirk                 1 - Star Wars      1- Coco              1 - Coco                 1 - Shape/Water

2 Baby Driver           2 Baby Driver           2 - Apes                                        2- Showman           2 - Dunkirk

3 Star Wars              3 BR2049                 3 - Water                                     3- Call Me By           3 - Phantom Thread

4 BR2049                 4 Shape/Water         4 - BR2049                                  4 - Marshall              4 - The Post

5 Shape/Water          5 Showman             5 - Dunkirk                                   5 - Mudbound         5 - Darkest Hour

 

Original Screenplay      Adapted Screenplay        PRODUCTION DESIGN     CINEMATOGRAPHY      Costumes

1 - Lady Bird               1 - Call Me By                 1 - Shape/Water                    1 - Dunkirk                     1 - Phantom Thread

2 - Get Out                  2 - Molly's G                  2 - Dunkirk                             2 - Shape/Water             2 - Greatest Showman

3 - 3 Billboards             3 - Disaster A                  3 - BR2049                           3 - BR2049                     3 - Darkest Hour

4 - Shape/Water          4 - Wonder                    4 - Darkest Hour                    4 - Darkest Hour              4  - Shape/Water

5 - The Big Sick           5 - Mudbound               5 - Greatest Showman             5 - Mudbound                  5 - BATB

6 - The Post                6 - All the $$                 6 - The Post                             6 - 3 Billboards                 6 - Beguiled

7 - Phantom Thread   7 - Last Flag Flying         7 - Phantom Thread                 7 - Beguiled                     7 - Victoria & Abdul

8 - I, Tonya                                                      8 - BATB                                   8 - Call Me By                   8 - Dunkirk

                                                                        9 - Beguiled                             9 - Get Out

                                                                        10 - 3 Billboards

 

Editing

1 - Dunkirk

2 - Shape/Water

3 - Baby Driver

4 - Get Out

5 - 3 Billboards

6 - BR2049

7 - The Post

8 - Lady Bird

9 - Call Me By

 

S Actress              S Actor                            Actor                       Actress                    Director                                Picture

1 - I, Tonya           1 - 3 Billboards          1 - Darkest Hour            1 - 3 Billboards          1 - Shape/Water        1 - Shape/Water

2 - Lady Bird         2 - Florida Project       2 - Phantom Thread      2 - Lady Bird             2 - Dunkirk                2 - 3 Billboards

3 - Shape/Water      3 - Shape/water      3 - Call Me By                 3 - Shape/Water        3 - Lady Bird              3 - Lady Bird

4 - Mudbound         4 - Call Me By           4 - Disaster Artist            4 - The Post               4 - 3 Billboards           4 - Call Me By

5 - The Big Sick       5- All the $$             5 - Get Out                     5 - I, Tonya                 5 - The Post             5 - Get Out

6 - Downsizing        6 - Call Me By            6 - The Post                  6 - Molly's Game           6 - Get Out                6 - Dunkirk

                              7 - 3 Billboards         7 - Stronger                     7 - All the Money         7 - Call Me by           7 - The Florida Project

                             8 - Mudbound           8 - Roman J Israel            8 - Victoria and Abdul 8 - Phantom Thread    8 - The Post

                             9 - The Beguiled        9 - Greatest Showman                                          9 - Florida Project        9 - I, Tonya

                            10 - Shape/Water                                                                                 10 - Darkest Hour         10 - Phantom Thread

                                                                                                                                                                          11 - The Big Sick

                                                                                                                                                                     12 - All the Money in the World

                                                                                                                                                                     13 - Mudbound

                                                                                                                                                                    14 - Darkest Hour

                                                                                                                                                                          15 - Wonder

 

 

 

Shape of Water - 14 nominations - 4 wins

Dunkirk - 9 nominations - 4 wins

3 Billboards - 5 nominations - 2 wins

Darkest Hour - 5 nominations - 1 win

Lady Bird - 5 nominations - 1 win

Call Me By Your Name - 4 nomination - 1 win

Phantom Thread - 4 nominations, 1 win

I, Tonya - 3 nominations - 1 win

Coco - 2 nominations - 2 wins

The Post - 4 nominations

Florida Project - 2

Blade Runner 2049 - 5

Greatest Showman - 4

Mudbound - 4

Disaster Artist - 2

Baby Driver - 3

Star Wars - 3

The Big Sick  -2

Apes - 1

Marshall - 1

Wonder - 1

All the Money - 1

Beauty and the BEast - 1

[AndyK]

25 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

20 minutes with http://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2018/

Looking at odds for borderline picks and just shooting from the gut here. 

Only saw Dunkirk, Get Out, Big Sick, Wonder Woman, BR2049, Beguiled, Baby Driver of the majors.

Ranking them

 

S Editing                  S Mixing                        VFX                  Animated           Song                     Score

1 Dunkirk                 1 Dunkirk                 1 - Star Wars      1- Coco              1 - Coco                 1 - Shape/Water

2 Baby Driver           2 Baby Driver           2 - Apes                                        2- Showman           2 - Dunkirk

3 Star Wars              3 BR2049                 3 - Water                                     3- Call Me By           3 - Phantom Thread

4 BR2049                 4 Shape/Water         4 - BR2049                                  4 - Marshall              4 - The Post

5 Shape/Water          5 Showman             5 - Dunkirk                                   5 - Mudbound         5 - Darkest Hour

 

Original Screenplay      Adapted Screenplay        PRODUCTION DESIGN     CINEMATOGRAPHY      Costumes

1 - Lady Bird               1 - Call Me By                 1 - Shape/Water                    1 - Dunkirk                     1 - Phantom Thread

2 - Get Out                  2 - Molly's G                  2 - Dunkirk                             2 - Shape/Water             2 - Greatest Showman

3 - 3 Billboards             3 - Disaster A                  3 - BR2049                           3 - BR2049                     3 - Darkest Hour

4 - Shape/Water          4 - Wonder                    4 - Darkest Hour                    4 - Darkest Hour              4  - Shape/Water

5 - The Big Sick           5 - Mudbound               5 - Greatest Showman             5 - Mudbound                  5 - BATB

6 - The Post                6 - All the $$                 6 - The Post                             6 - 3 Billboards                 6 - Beguiled

7 - Phantom Thread   7 - Last Flag Flying         7 - Phantom Thread                 7 - Beguiled                     7 - Victoria & Abdul

8 - I, Tonya                                                      8 - BATB                                   8 - Call Me By                   8 - Dunkirk

                                                                        9 - Beguiled                             9 - Get Out

                                                                        10 - 3 Billboards

 

Editing

1 - Dunkirk

2 - Shape/Water

3 - Baby Driver

4 - Get Out

5 - 3 Billboards

6 - BR2049

7 - The Post

8 - Lady Bird

9 - Call Me By

 

S Actress              S Actor                            Actor                       Actress                    Director                                Picture

1 - I, Tonya           1 - 3 Billboards          1 - Darkest Hour            1 - 3 Billboards          1 - Shape/Water        1 - Shape/Water

2 - Lady Bird         2 - Florida Project       2 - Phantom Thread      2 - Lady Bird             2 - Dunkirk                2 - 3 Billboards

3 - Shape/Water      3 - Shape/water      3 - Call Me By                 3 - Shape/Water        3 - Lady Bird              3 - Lady Bird

4 - Mudbound         4 - Call Me By           4 - Disaster Artist            4 - The Post               4 - 3 Billboards           4 - Call Me By

5 - The Big Sick       5- All the $$             5 - Get Out                     5 - I, Tonya                 5 - The Post             5 - Get Out

6 - Downsizing        6 - Call Me By            6 - The Post                  6 - Molly's Game           6 - Get Out                6 - Dunkirk

                              7 - 3 Billboards         7 - Stronger                     7 - All the Money         7 - Call Me by           7 - The Florida Project

                             8 - Mudbound           8 - Roman J Israel            8 - Victoria and Abdul 8 - Phantom Thread    8 - The Post

                             9 - The Beguiled        9 - Greatest Showman                                          9 - Florida Project        9 - I, Tonya

                            10 - Shape/Water                                                                                 10 - Darkest Hour         10 - Phantom Thread

                                                                                                                                                                          11 - The Big Sick

                                                                                                                                                                     12 - All the Money in the World

                                                                                                                                                                     13 - Mudbound

                                                                                                                                                                    14 - Darkest Hour

                                                                                                                                                                          15 - Wonder

 

 

 

Shape of Water - 14 nominations - 4 wins

Dunkirk - 9 nominations - 4 wins

3 Billboards - 5 nominations - 2 wins

Darkest Hour - 5 nominations - 1 win

Lady Bird - 5 nominations - 1 win

Call Me By Your Name - 4 nomination - 1 win

Phantom Thread - 4 nominations, 1 win

I, Tonya - 3 nominations - 1 win

Coco - 2 nominations - 2 wins

The Post - 4 nominations

Florida Project - 2

Blade Runner 2049 - 5

Greatest Showman - 4

Mudbound - 4

Disaster Artist - 2

Baby Driver - 3

Star Wars - 3

The Big Sick  -2

Apes - 1

Marshall - 1

Wonder - 1

All the Money - 1

Beauty and the BEast - 1

Lowest viewing figures ever almost guaranteed with that lineup.

[meriodejaneiro]

50 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

Lol I didn't throw unreal hypothetical numbers I just quoted Scott Mendelson. I have no idea why you are quoting me and then you are discussing with Scott numbers. 

Read the responses you gave some pages before. But don't worry ... for you the final say, i'm not even there for nonsense chatting 

[weresweresweres]

4 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Read the responses you gave some pages before. But don't worry ... for you the final say, i'm not even there for nonsense chatting 

Few pages ago I was talking about Jumanji DOM, and you're talking about Jumanji int. I honestly doesn't have idea what's your problem.

[Poseidon]

6 hours ago, aabattery said:

 

 

He is kind of right. Jumanji seems like a christmas movie, as it's lighthearted in a time, where many feel threatened by certain political movements all over the world. Maybe it's just that, an escape from all the negativity, that SW could not deliver with TLJ.

[JohnnyGossamer]

What's Jumanji looking like for a WW finish? $850M+ assuming it grosses $385M+ DOM and $465M+ OS?

[Lordmandeep]

TLJ was not escapism like TFA was. 

 

RO was harsh but it tied into a film called a New Hope.

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

These should suffice for next week for figuring out running totals.  Bring Jumanji's Saturday down 30% in PTA and make the next weekend out to have $5,000 PTA.  Use 3,700 theaters and get 18.5.  Use these below and change if desired.  It seems as if the Maze Runner weekend will not affect holdovers.  Previous years continued net expansion of TC's on the second weekend after MLK.  The most amount of movies being shown then should be at its peak and then hold that for the Winchester weekend during Super Bowl weekend.  It looks like during Maze Runner's weekend, you should only subtract about 4,000 due to Maze Runner only.  Then there should be a net expansion of 1,500+ which would be attributed to expansions. 

 

These 31 movies show 43,031 Theater counts.  This list shows 8,056 TC's are departing from this week to next, and 10,393 of new TC's incoming.  This gives a net +2,337 from the third weekend of January to the fourth weekend.  Then Super Bowl is on Feb 3rd with Winchester getting 3,000 and  no net gain from fourth January weekend.  that means all Academy Award expansions will have to be balanced with TC losses!   the previous weekend (maze Runner) should show highest expansion yet for Academy Award runners, and depending on how they go, will determine how they expand further over Super Bowl Weekend.  Remember, max screens because the following 3 weeks of February will be hacking and slashing TC counts.  Awards movies should be competitive, but I am sure if you follow it, you will see these films really spread around well compared to like, when Thanksgiving release TC's crumble during the 10 Days of XMAS box office. 

 

3,702 - Paddington 2 - weekend #2

3,702 - Jumanji (-147)

3,000 - Hostiles

3,000 - 12 Strong

2,892 - Commuter - weekend #2

2,819 - The Post - weekend #2

2,640 - Den of Thieves

2,513 - The Greatest Showman (-425)

2,490 - Star Wars (-600)

2,450 - Insidious 4 (-700)

2,125 - Proud Mary - weekend #2

1,605 - Pitch Perfect 3 (-900)

1,268 - Darkest Hour (-425)

1,034 - I, Tonya (+517)

1,008 - Molly's Game (-700)

922 - 3 Billboards (-100)

908 - Coco (-454)

754 - Ferdinand (-1,400)

723 - Shape of Water

562 - Phantom Thread +500

562 - Forever My Girl - new

371 - Disaster Artist

348 - Call Me By Your Name +174

320 - Wonder (-650)

222 - Thor (-20)

208 - All the Money in the World (-1,000)

206 - Justice League (-20)

206 - Downsizing (-206)

189 - Marshall (-189)

181 - Daddy's Home 2 (-20)

101 - Father Figures (-100)

Only place I might disagree is giving the slight edge to Insidious over TLJ (so swapping their loss counts) and/or seeing PP3 lose more (as the loser of this weekend)...but I loved all the analysis:)...

[That One Girl]

5 hours ago, peludo said:

After this weekend, Jaws has been expelled from the top 100 unadjusted after 43 years...

 

[dxmatrixdt]

I think the name 'Jumanji' is helping to sell it.  that name must be getting alot of hits right now.  check out The Founder with Michael Keaton.

Right title at right time.  Welcome to Jungle.  Jungle Book 3.  Skull Island.  too bad Terminator Genysis did not survive the countdown that was similar to Jurassic World

Edited January 15, 2018 by Matrix4You

[Valonqar]

14 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm not arguing Coco isn't a success, it absolutely is, I'm just saying it did get pretty fortunate to have a huge breakout in a few OS markets. The DOM performance is very underwhelming. Even if it beat expectations, the expectations were for it to bomb. The opening was high enough that WOM should have carried it to a much stronger total. Hard to imagine they could have made a better film. 

Coco got crushed by Jumanji as a family market's option. otherwise it would've had better holiday legs. It's simply the nature of the boxoffice. Sometimes many similar movies do great during holidays season, sometimes one is so dominant it subdues all direct competitors (TLJ, Coco, Ferdinand) while counterprogramming movies thrive (TGS, for example). 

 

That said, Coco is also a China phenom like F&F movies and Transformers but, for some reason, that fact isn't thrown around in a mocking tone unlike F&F/TF conversations. It didn't set countries outside of China/Mexico on fire. Did well but nothing out of ordinary. 

 

@Matrix4You Name Jumanji helps but it's Dwayne's global (dom + OS) boxoffice power and Kevin's domestic pull that really did wonders for the movie. Brand name alone isn't enough. Look how poorly Ghostbusters did cause they started nobodies from SNL and Melissa who has only a domestic pull in the 70M-100M range. That's too low for expensive shit that GB was. 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Valonqar

[dxmatrixdt]

predicted Sunday 9.1875 for 27.37 weekend.

Jumanji's Monday -13% = 7.7

Tues 2.7  + 1.69 + 1.69 = 297.28 million

 

predicted 5th weekend

$17,322,771 (-36.7%)

314.60 total

Edited January 15, 2018 by Matrix4You