Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[JohnnyGossamer]

24 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

All of that plus the Vader factor makes it less likely to continue the "traditional" pattern of the 3rd Star Wars movies. Let's say TLJ finishes at $625m. I think Episode 9 will finish within 5% of this number in either direction, so a range of $594m to $656m. I don't think $650m is locked by any means. 

This is where I am but my range is more 575 to 625 DOM. Could go lower. I don't see it going higher.

[MCKillswitch123]

40 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

pro.boxoffice explains why business is down this weekend http://pro.boxoffice.com/mlk-weekend-the-post-paddington2-commuter-proud-mary-jumanji-star-wars-winter-storm-hunter/

 

Winter Storm Hunter appears to be having a larger-than-expected impact across areas of the midwest, southeast, and northeast to begin this holiday weekend as Friday estimates for a number of key titles came in well below expectations. The hope is that much of the weather in these often-overlooked areas of the country — which are less equipped to deal with winter weather than major northern cities — will clear up throughout the weekend, but for now projections are even more volatile than usual as a significant portion of the middle-to-eastern United States has been immobilized by snow and ice.

Here's hoping that this unfortunate situation is true. If yes, then it would be very similar to what happened last year when Hidden Figures had a very backloaded opening due to a winter storm; also similar to two years ago for the openings of Dirty Grandpa, The 5th Wave and The Boy, all of which had a backloaded OW through bad weather and ended up with over 3x multipliers despite bad to horrible wom.

 

And FUCK that Paddington 2 number. Fuck it to hard pieces. I'm especially hopeful that this weekend is deathly backloaded for its sake (as well as The Post's). Seriously, with everything going for it.... it makes no sense that it would perform that poorly.

 

Although I'm happy for Blumhouse that Insidious got revised up. Would be hilarious if it actually outgrossed the 3rd one's DOM total in 2 weeks. It's also gonna near the DOM totals of Happy Death Day and the 1st Insidious. Unbelievable for a movie with expectations as low as Insidious 4.

Edited January 13, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

This is where I am but my range is more 575 to 625 DOM. Could go lower. I don't see it going higher.

I think JJ returning matters to a degree. If the movie is as pleasing to the GA as TFA I think it can grow from SW8. A Sith like jump (20-22%) can be ruled out but would not rule out closer to 10%. If SW8 does 620 then a 10% bump gives 680+. On the lower side again using 10% gives 560.

[WrathOfHan]

34 minutes ago, Jandrew said:

Shouldnt be surprised that America is dumb enough to give Paddington only $2.4, look at out current state.

 

At the same time it is disappointing that we still have a hard time breaking out and embracing things that arent American. Hell Despacito didnt break out until they slapped  Americanly-marketable Bieber on it after all.

Bieber isn't even American :hahaha: 

[KeepItU25071906]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Trashmerica.

[Krissykins]

I feel bad for Taraji P Henson.

 

This is her first wide release flop since 2006. And even then she’s really only had one. 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

For curiosity's sake, I checked the multipliers of the previous Insidious flicks (since Insidious is one of the few things about this weekend that isn't whole heartedly disappointing) and GODDAMN, the original had a fucking 4.06x multiplier. That's ri-di-cu-lous for an original horror. Although, it "only" did 59M adjusted for inflation, so even adjusted, Last Key will outgross it.

 

Insidious 2 had a gigantic drop-off in legs, only getting a 2.07x multiplier (its legs were effectively cut in half for the sequel... YIKES). Insidious 3 managed a 2.3x multiplier, which isn't bad for a horror threequel.

 

With these multipliers, Insidious 4 - which is already looking higher than all of them, except 2:

 

Insidious 1 multiplier (IMPOSSIBLE) - 120.2M

Insidious 3 multiplier (PROBABLE) - 68.1M

Insidious 2 multiplier (POSSIBLE) - 61.3M

 

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I feel bad for Taraji P Henson.

 

This is her first wide release flop since 2006. And even then she’s really only had one. 

 

Proud Mary only cost 14M, tho. If it makes around 30M, it's not really a flop anymore.

[Barnack]

48 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think it's unfair to blame american, american critics have done their part to fuel the movie, and the theaters across nation are welcoming its release....

 

It's competition after all i think, too many family friendly movie in play.....and meanwhile even the live action movies now are greatly family-friendly.....

That make 2 "excuse" americans do not have, it does seem that Americans need their animated stuff to be Minions/Secret Life of Pets colorful and very close to the proven and known formula look wise (pixar/dreamworks), anything else like Kubo and the 2 strings will have an hard time.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That make 2 "excuse" americans do not have, it does seem that Americans need their animated stuff to be Minions/Secret Life of Pets colorful and very close to the proven and known formula look wise (pixar/dreamworks), anything else like Kubo and the 2 strings will have an hard time.

I don't buy that it's specific to US.

Kubo did 48 dom and only 22 OS. So US did good in comparison.

 

Minions/SLOP did 820+/500+ OS and Minions especially was huge in many countries and beat less formulaic films in most countries.

[DAJK]

I'm stillness mad about that Paddington number. My theatre, which is only a little 5-plex in a small town, made way more than the PTA. Not really a shock, but this little theatre doesn't reach the PTA's that a lot of movies do, for example, we just don't qui quite have the capacity/audience for a movie to make 50k here in one weekend like Last Jedi. 

 

But i remember Monster Trucks did it last year, and now Paddington, both actually made more money than the PTA, which is sad considering how small of a market we're supposed to be.

 

Curious if Asgard of EC will post Canada's top 5, if Paddington can rank well in there for the weekend.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

I'm stillness mad about that Paddington number. My theatre, which is only a little 5-plex in a small town, made way more than the PTA. Not really a shock, but this little theatre doesn't reach the PTA's that a lot of movies do, for example, we just don't qui quite have the capacity/audience for a movie to make 50k here in one weekend like Last Jedi. 

 

But i remember Monster Trucks did it last year, and now Paddington, both actually made more money than the PTA, which is sad considering how small of a market we're supposed to be.

 

Curious if Asgard of EC will post Canada's top 5, if Paddington can rank well in there for the weekend.

I reckon Paddington 2 would play much better in Canada than the US.

 

Paddington should pretty much be Canada’s mascot.

[Blaze Heatnix]

19 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

For curiosity's sake, I checked the multipliers of the previous Insidious flicks (since Insidious is one of the few things about this weekend that isn't whole heartedly disappointing) and GODDAMN, the original had a fucking 4.06x multiplier. That's ri-di-cu-lous for an original horror. Although, it "only" did 59M adjusted for inflation, so even adjusted, Last Key will outgross it.

 

Insidious 2 had a gigantic drop-off in legs, only getting a 2.07x multiplier (its legs were effectively cut in half for the sequel... YIKES). Insidious 3 managed a 2.3x multiplier, which isn't bad for a horror threequel.

 

With these multipliers, Insidious 4 - which is already looking higher than all of them, except 2:

 

Insidious 1 multiplier (IMPOSSIBLE) - 120.2M

Insidious 3 multiplier (PROBABLE) - 68.1M

Insidious 2 multiplier (POSSIBLE) - 61.3M

 

Proud Mary only cost 14M, tho. If it makes around 30M, it's not really a flop anymore.

 

Proud Mary has a 30 million budget, updated on deadline's page. 

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, New Year New Panda said:

I reckon Paddington 2 would play much better in Canada than the US.

 

Paddington should pretty much be Canada’s mascot.

 

A close second, but I will never betray our true silly old bear

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

Proud Mary has a 30 million budget, updated on deadline's page. 

Oh.

 

Well, bye bye, profit.

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Proud Mary only cost 14M, tho. If it makes around 30M, it's not really a flop anymore.

 

Deadline article mentioned they heard rumors that the real budget was more around 30M.

 

Even then if it reach 30M domestic, it is not a flop at all, but if the legs are really bad and that budget rumors true....

 

Will probably have some idea when the state of Massachusetts will release it's 2017 tax credit transparency report, the filming location being all there according to imdb.

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I don't buy that it's specific to US.

Kubo did 48 dom and only 22 OS. So US did good in comparison.

 

Minions/SLOP did 820+/500+ OS and Minions especially was huge in many countries and beat less formulaic films in most countries.

I really do not think it is specific to the US either.

[Noctis]

BaTB's run really is incredible. Its Saturday gross on OW was insane.

[Blaze Heatnix]

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Oh.

 

Well, bye bye, profit.

 

It might perform well overseas. Don't give up, yet. XD

[DAJK]

Oh yea I didn't even mention about last night cause I was so high on Paddington and so low on numbers...

 

There's this old guy who comes to the movies every few months and sees all the typical action movies. And he loves most of them, but how he Ellen us he loves them gets more hyperbolic with each time he sees them... with big arm gestures and weird comparisons etc. 

Anyway he comes out of the Commuter last night and I'm hanging out in box office with this one girl and he walks past us on the other side of the glass and is like

"I AM 80 YEARS OLD AND THE COMMUTER WAS IN THE TOP 5 I HAVE EVER SEEN IN MY LIFETIME! THE TENSION BUILDS AND BUILDS AND BUILDS UNTIL YOU JUST CANT TAKE IT ANYMORE!!"

 

I have to give the guy credit, he does actually justify why he likes a movie.

[MCKillswitch123]

12 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Deadline article mentioned they heard rumors that the real budget was more around 30M.

 

Even then if it reach 30M domestic, it is not a flop at all, but if the legs are really bad and that budget rumors true....

 

Will probably have some idea when the state of Massachusetts will release it's 2017 tax credit transparency report, the filming location being all there according to imdb.

Yeah, I saw that already. And if the production budget is 30M, then the movie would be a flop if it only made 30M DOM. This is a Screen Gems African American-audience skewing thriller, and those are never money makers internationally. I went and checked what kind of OS business they tend to do, and out of the three "big" ones from the last few years, The Perfect Guy made the "most" with 3M OS. No Good Deed made around 1.7M, and When The Bough Breaks made less than 1M. I don't see Proud Mary doing much better than any of those just because it's an action movie (best case scenario, maybe 10-15M?), it still wouldn't be enough to cover marketing spends, even if they probably weren't very large for this movie.

 

And even actually good African American-skewing films like Hidden Figures and Get Out didn't have massive OS business anyway... not compared to their DOM incomes (HF did 66M OS vs. 169M DOM, GO did 78M vs. 175M DOM). Proud Mary supposedly not being good is only a bigger sinker for it.

 

@Blaze Heatnix Oh I don't care about PM flopping, no need to try lighten me up (though I appreciate it)  And like I explained, I don't think it's gonna do anything OS, so... yup.

Edited January 13, 2018 by MCKillswitch123