Weekend Thread | Estimates (per DHD) ~ MR:TDC 23M, J 15.8M, H 9.8M, TGS 9.3M, TP 8.7M, 12S/DoT 7.9M, TSOW 5.7M, P2 5.5M, TLJ 4M, TBOEM 3.6M

[a2k]

If TGS dom-os ratio stays 50-50, wonder if it can do 350 ww with around 175 each.

 

Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic:  $119,515,232    49.9% + Foreign:  $120,176,118    50.1% = Worldwide:  $239,691,350

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Maybe it wasn't.  It was a Western and it starred Denzel and it grossed 93 million.  Maybe it did exactly what all Denzel movies do.  Maybe it was us who had unrealistic expectations for it.

This if you read Sony leaked email talking about that project, the movie overperformed a little bit according to many exec expectation, many saw 80-85m dbo and the usual Denzel intl ratio.

[WrathOfHan]

SUPERBOWL ADS: http://deadline.com/2018/01/cloverfield-sequel-dwayne-johnson-jurassic-world-black-panther-super-bowl-movie-trailers-2018-1202270304/

 

Disney: One 30 second spot and one 45 second spot

Netflix: Cloverfield 3

Paramount: Mission Impossible (Pre-game), A Quiet Place (2nd half)

Universal: Jurassic World, Skyscraper

 

Sony and Fox are airing nothing for once.

Edited January 27, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

SUPERBOWL ADS: http://deadline.com/2018/01/cloverfield-sequel-dwayne-johnson-jurassic-world-black-panther-super-bowl-movie-trailers-2018-1202270304/

 

Disney: One 30 second spot and one 45 second spot

Netflix: Cloverfield 3

Paramount: Mission Impossible (Pre-game), A Quiet Place (2nd half)

Universal: Jurassic World, Skyscraper

 

Sony and Fox are airing nothing for once.

Slim pickings this year. I'm guessing after a number of duds were given prominent placement in last year's Super Bowl they don't see the point in shelling out the money.

Edited January 27, 2018 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

Slim pickings this year. I'm guessing after a number of duds were given prominent placement in last year's Super Bowl they don't see the point in shelling out the money.

I'm surprised Universal isn't airing a few more. Maybe they'll have more pre-game?

[a2k]

20 minutes ago, Barnack said:

This if you read Sony leaked email talking about that project, the movie overperformed a little bit according to many exec expectation, many saw 80-85m dbo and the usual Denzel intl ratio.

Mag 7 's budget %-wise was bigger compared to the dom gross of Denzel films that did 75+ dom though.

It didn't do very well OS either.

 

Dom Prod-budget Movie

130 100 American Gangster

 81 100 Unstoppable

 93 90 Mag 7

126 85 Safe House

 95 80 Book of Eli

 76 61 2 Guns

102 55 Equalizer

 91 53 Crimson Tide

101 45 Pelican Brief

 89 45 Inside Man

 77 45 Training Day

 72 36 John Q

 94 31 Flight

116 30 Remember the Titans

 77 26 Philadelphia

Edited January 27, 2018 by a2knet

[75Live]

Just saw The Post.  Pretty good movie.  Not great but was worth seeing 

[TwoMisfits]

For all those discussing Black Panther's weekend BO potential, (if it's good) it's only gonna be limited by theaters and available screens.  It does open after 3 decent sized movie openings and after the big "go to the movies" Valentine's Day, so it's not likely to get the full "clear out" like It, GOTG 2, and Thor 3 did ...but that's about all that should hold it back, assuming Disney brings the normal quality...

Edited January 27, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For all those discussing Black Panther's weekend BO potential, (if it's good) it's only gonna be limited by theaters and available screens.  It does open after 3 decent sized movie openings and after the big "go to the movies" Valentine's Day, so it's not likely to get the full "clear out" like It, GOTG 2, and Thor 3 did ...but that's about all that should hold it back, assuming Disney brings the normal quality...

Everything is gonna be dead except the three February 9 releases by that point so space isn't at all an issue.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Everything is gonna be dead except the three February 9 releases by that point so space isn't at all an issue.

Oh, it will be in every theater...but will it get 5 screens at midsize local places (with practically unlimited night shows)?  Before the other 3, there was full clear out...I'm not sure with those 3 releases right before that this movie will get quite that huge a bennie...

[grim22]

39 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

SUPERBOWL ADS: http://deadline.com/2018/01/cloverfield-sequel-dwayne-johnson-jurassic-world-black-panther-super-bowl-movie-trailers-2018-1202270304/

 

Disney: One 30 second spot and one 45 second spot

Netflix: Cloverfield 3

Paramount: Mission Impossible (Pre-game), A Quiet Place (2nd half)

Universal: Jurassic World, Skyscraper

 

Sony and Fox are airing nothing for once.

The Superbowl investment is now too high for studios. For the cost of one ad during the superbowl, you can air ads during the divisional and the AFC/NFC championships and have money left over. Universal might end up having more ads in the end like they did last time they had the Superbowl but I see the number of trailers reducing every year instead of increasing due to the escalation in cost.

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

Mag 7 's budget %-wise was bigger compared to the dom gross of Denzel films that did 75+ dom though.

It didn't do very well OS either.

 

Dom Prod-budget Movie

130 100 American Gangster

 81 100 Unstoppable

 93 90 Mag 7

126 85 Safe House

 95 80 Book of Eli

 76 61 2 Guns

102 55 Equalizer

 91 53 Crimson Tide

101 45 Pelican Brief

 89 45 Inside Man

 77 45 Training Day

 72 36 John Q

 94 31 Flight

116 30 Remember the Titans

 77 26 Philadelphia

 

It's net budget was a bit lower than 90m I think (not sure what that number going around is, clearly not it's gross budget that was over 105m, and clearly not it's net budget that must be below $82m, maybe the first estimate of what the net would be of a 107m movie that was never corrected).

 

They were working into keeping it between 75 to 80m and to transfest everyone into profit participation instead of first dollar gross, even Denzel, in the leaked emails talk and being a Louisiana production we did got feedback on is gross and tax credits a year after release or so:

 

https://fastlane.louisianaeconomicdevelopment.com/Film/FilmSearchDetails.aspx?ProjNum=1Ki2apGQb7wFKtZifVR43A%3d%3d

 

Estimated Total Budget: $107,632,628

Total Granted Tax Credits: $30,318,293

 

Worst case scenario (sell the credit back to the state 85 cents to the dollar) it did cost 107.63 - 0.85 * 30.3 = $81.875m

Best case scenario it did cost (could use all of them) $77.3m

 

And maybe others jurisdiction did chip in with some incentive also a little bit.

 

It was perceived like a movie with a best case scenario of 225m WW but more likely a 85m dom with a 65m intl, from the leaked e-mails:

Could you please provide estimates for MAGNIFICENT 7.

 

DBO       $85M

IBO        $65M

 

With a studio ok with the profits with that scenario, that did a bit over that with worst than expected exchange rate (in part because they overperfomed in South Korea having cast a local star in the movie). Using a 79m net budget that movie not only doubled it at the box office for a genre that do well with home entertainment audience, but was very domestic heavy, a nice small success.

 

 

The Denzel business is a very safe one (how is movie end up doing vs what studio expect is pretty spot on) but a low margin one (those 2 things tend to go together, safer it is lower the upside people will accept to invest in it)

Edited January 27, 2018 by Barnack

[CJohn]

44 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

SUPERBOWL ADS: http://deadline.com/2018/01/cloverfield-sequel-dwayne-johnson-jurassic-world-black-panther-super-bowl-movie-trailers-2018-1202270304/

 

Disney: One 30 second spot and one 45 second spot

Netflix: Cloverfield 3

Paramount: Mission Impossible (Pre-game), A Quiet Place (2nd half)

Universal: Jurassic World, Skyscraper

 

Sony and Fox are airing nothing for once.

So which movies is Disney snubbing? I was expecting at least 3 from them. My guess is those 2 are Panther and Han Solo.

38 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm surprised Universal isn't airing a few more. Maybe they'll have more pre-game?

Universal will probably air the Fifty Shades and Pacific Rim spots during the pre-game.

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

So which movies is Disney snubbing? I was expecting at least 3 from them. My guess is those 2 are Panther and Han Solo.

Universal will probably air the Fifty Shades and Pacific Rim spots during the pre-game.

 

Solo will be snubbed in place of Infinity War 

[OdinSon2k14]

Finally someone knocked Jumanji off, tired of hearing about that :). Bad news is, Maze Runner is a frontload style release. Looking at the upcoming releases, this stupid Jumanji movie could very well be BACK on top until Black Panther snuffs it out!

Edited January 27, 2018 by OdinSon2k14

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

So which movies is Disney snubbing? I was expecting at least 3 from them. My guess is those 2 are Panther and Han Solo.

Universal will probably air the Fifty Shades and Pacific Rim spots during the pre-game.

I'm pretty sure A Wrinkle in Time is the other Disney film being promoted?

[AniNate]

If your movie's not coming out for over a month, you may as well be dumping cash into Challenger Deep with a Super Bowl ad.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, OdinSon2k14 said:

Finally someone knocked Jumanji off, tired of hearing about that :). Bad news is, Maze Runner is a frontload style release. Looking at the upcoming releases, thus stupid Jumanji movie could very well be BACK on top until Black Panther snuffs it out!

Fifty Shades Freed is assured to open at #1 (unless Peter Rabbit surprises).

[grim22]

1 minute ago, tribefan695 said:

If your movie's not coming out for over a month, you may as well be dumping cash into Challenger Deep with a Super Bowl ad.

Either that, or if it is the first look at the movie. That's the only 2 times a Superbowl ad makes sense anymore. 

[OdinSon2k14]

The first Maze Runner is a classic. The second one...did nothing for me, bit of a let down. It was filler. Seeing Death Cure in about 2 hours, might as well see the conclusion. Long movie, has an Avengers runtime.

Edited January 27, 2018 by OdinSon2k14