Weekend Thread | Estimates (per DHD) ~ MR:TDC 23M, J 15.8M, H 9.8M, TGS 9.3M, TP 8.7M, 12S/DoT 7.9M, TSOW 5.7M, P2 5.5M, TLJ 4M, TBOEM 3.6M

[That One Girl]

10 minutes ago, Tree Billboards said:

Black Panther will open to 75M and there's nothing you can do about it, fanboys.

 

Bookmarking this post.

[Mojoguy]

Jumanji beating SMH isn't about showing that SMH did bad but how good Jumanji is doing.

Just like how well Jumanji has been holding against TLJ has been worth talking about.

[WrathOfHan]

PTAs for the Oscar nominees:

 

Phantom Thread: $3,330

The Post: $3,259

Shape of Water: $2,913

I, Tonya: $2,896

Billboards: $2,608

Darkest Hour: $1,988

Lady Bird: $1,606

CMBYN: $1,472

 

CMBYN and Lady Bird won't be having any more expansions until maybe the weekend of the Oscars in March. Darkest Hour is probably done as well. The other four non-Post movies should continue expanding next week.

[Hiccup23]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

I'm happy to see I, Tonya have a good hold.  It probably won't get the oscar boost other films will, but with Robbie getting a best actress nom and Janney getting one as well, hopefully this gets enough people interested in the film.  It's sits with 18.7 mill right now, maybe it will have enough to get to 25 million.  Too bad it got snubbed for a best picture nod.

 

Not happy about that.

 

I was/still am holding out hope it can get a boost from the 2018 Winter Olympics.

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

PTAs for the Oscar nominees:

 

Phantom Thread: $3,330

The Post: $3,259

Shape of Water: $2,913

I, Tonya: $2,896

Billboards: $2,608

Darkest Hour: $1,988

Lady Bird: $1,606

CMBYN: $1,472

 

CMBYN and Lady Bird won't be having any more expansions until maybe the weekend of the Oscars in March. Darkest Hour is probably done as well. The other four non-Post movies should continue expanding next week.

I can't wait to hear all about them low ratings this year. 

[Ethan Hunt]

I give Black Panther a 100% chance of outgrossing Infinity War

[filmlover]

It's really bananas how Jumanji and The Greatest Showman are performing like movies from 25 years or so ago.

 

Maze Runner actually opened fine considering how little buzz there was for it plus the 2.5 year gap from its already underperforming sequel (albeit for reasons beyond their control).

[a2k]

45 minutes ago, Tree Billboards said:

Black Panther will open to 75M and there's nothing you can do about it, fanboys.

Nah, that would give like a 175 ow. I think sub 60m od for sure.

[Mojoguy]

I'm looking forward to the outrage when Panther JUST has a $110m OW.

Edited January 27, 2018 by Mojoguy

[WrathOfHan]

Forecasting:

 

Maze Runner (23M weekend):

Remainder of this week: 6M (29M Total)

Feb 2: 10.7M (3M weekdays, 42.7M Total)

Feb 9: 5.5M (1.5M weekdays, 49.7M Total)

Feb 16: 2.7M (1.2M weekdays, 53.6M Total)

Feb 23: 1.2M (400k weekdays, 55.2M Total)

Final Total: 57M (2.48x)

 

 

Hostiles (11.7M weekend):

Remainder of this week: 4.6M (18.1M Total)

Feb 2: 7.6M (3.1M weekdays, 28.8M Total)

Feb 9: 5M (2M weekdays, 35.8M Total)

Feb 16: 3M (1.8M weekdays, 40.6M Total)

Feb 23: 2.2M (900k weekdays, 43.7M Total)

Mar 2: 1.1M (400k weekdays, 45.2M Total)

Final Total: 47M (4.02x)

 

If the marketing budget is on the lower end of the 30-40M range reported by Deadline, Entertainment Studios should make their money back once home video is factored in.

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I give Black Panther a 100% chance of outgrossing Infinity War

124,262,871 views

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasting:

 

Maze Runner (23M weekend):

Remainder of this week: 6M (29M Total)

Feb 2: 10.7M (3M weekdays, 42.7M Total)

Feb 9: 5.5M (1.5M weekdays, 49.7M Total)

Feb 16: 2.7M (1.2M weekdays, 53.6M Total)

Feb 23: 1.2M (400k weekdays, 55.2M Total)

Final Total: 57M (2.48x)

 

 

Hostiles (11.7M weekend):

Remainder of this week: 4.6M (18.1M Total)

Feb 2: 7.6M (3.1M weekdays, 28.8M Total)

Feb 9: 5M (2M weekdays, 35.8M Total)

Feb 16: 3M (1.8M weekdays, 40.6M Total)

Feb 23: 2.2M (900k weekdays, 43.7M Total)

Mar 2: 1.1M (400k weekdays, 45.2M Total)

Final Total: 47M (4.02x)

 

If the marketing budget is on the lower end of the 30-40M range reported by Deadline, Entertainment Studios should make their money back once home video is factored in.

Entertainment Studios: Mastering the Art of the "Surprise, Bitch!" Hit Since 2017.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

Entertainment Studios: Mastering the Art of the "Surprise, Bitch!" Hit Since 2017.

And also the megabomb:

 

Friend Request
 

Domestic Total Gross: $3,759,078

 

 

What category will Chappaquiddick fall into?  

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

And also the megabomb:

 

Friend Request
 

Domestic Total Gross: $3,759,078

 

 

What category will Chappaquiddick fall into?  

Probably the flop department.

[WrathOfHan]

After Django Unchained and True Grit, studios should have taken the heads up 5 years ago that audiences want westerns. Mag 7 put up a respectable total back in 2016, and Hostiles should be crossing 40M from a noob studio. 

 

Edit: Forgot about The Revenant too

Edited January 27, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

After Django Unchained and True Grit, studios should have taken the heads up 5 years ago that audiences want westerns. Mag 7 put up a respectable total back in 2016, and Hostiles should be crossing 40M from a noob studio. 

 

Edit: Forgot about The Revenant too

That movie was seen as something of a significant underperformer though.

[CoolioD1]

9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

After Django Unchained and True Grit, studios should have taken the heads up 5 years ago that audiences want westerns. Mag 7 put up a respectable total back in 2016, and Hostiles should be crossing 40M from a noob studio. 

 

Edit: Forgot about The Revenant too

i think they did take the heads up so they sunk $200 mil into the lone ranger/cowboys and aliens.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Jumanji beating Spiderman homecoming.....hahaha. MCU fans must be seething in anger. Only winner in this whole thing is Tom Rothman. 

Wut? This is your livel? 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i think they did take the heads up so they sunk $200 mil into the lone ranger/cowboys and aliens.

The Lone Ranger was in active development between 2008-2010, but filming was pushed back to 2012 because of budget concerns (spoiler: Disney was right)

Likewise, Cowboys and Aliens started filming in summer 2010

[EmpireCity]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

I'm happy to see I, Tonya have a good hold.  It probably won't get the oscar boost other films will, but with Robbie getting a best actress nom and Janney getting one as well, hopefully this gets enough people interested in the film.  It's sits with 18.7 mill right now, maybe it will have enough to get to 25 million.  Too bad it got snubbed for a best picture nod.

It actually should be flat or maybe a percentage up for the weekend.  The Deadline numbers were a bit low.  

 

I would guess it should pass $20m by next Thursday 2/1 and then I would guess that Neon will give it the widest expansion.  Maybe they go 1,400+ theaters and that give it another $3m+ next weekend and is sitting around $23m by 2/5.  

 

This should have enough juice over the next month to get around $30m+ possibly.