BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[Johnny Tran]

Don't be surprised if IW is under BP's total.  I said it before this weekend happened,  it's not Monday morning quarterbacking. 

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

I'm still trying to understand how this is surprising?  And why is it a comparison?  BP is going to beat every team up movie except maybe the first Avengers.   This is about much more than just another super hero movie.  I see some here are still failing to realize the momentum BP had going for it and the difference between this which is a real film and most CBMs that have nothing to say..  

I wonder...had Wonder Woman been released under the Marvel brand (the exact same film but with brand recognition and goodwill) what it would make then?

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Yeah, 235M is a joke.  It's going to easily be mid 240s

 

So you think a sub-29% drop on Monday is locked to happen? It's possible but not a lock. Gitesh's 235 prediction seems pretty reasonable to me. Here is what happened on February 19, 2007 for Presidents Day:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2007-02-19&p=.htm

[Johnny Tran]

Team up movies don't equal more box office automatically.  How many times are people going to fall for that. Adding BP to IW and putting him front and center doesn't mean more box office.   Black Panther is the Wonder Woman.  

Edited February 19, 2018 by Johnny Tran

[titanic2187]

the success of hidden figure, get out and moonlight were all set up for the foundation for more black-centric film commercially !!

[peludo]

9 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Infinity War should open bigger, but I think it will be a lot more frontloaded. Black Panther has a great chance to finish with the bigger domestic total.

I agree with this. We could see a x2.5 multiplier for BP, reaching $550m (and beating TDK as the biggest solo SH film ever). And on the other side, IW opening, let's say, to 225-230 and with a multiplier of x2.2-x2.25, making something about 505-515.

[Alexiswills12]

Good God, I can’t wrap my head around this. The only movie that did better is Star. Wars.

 

Star Wars! Not Avengers. It grossed more than Avengers.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Alexiswills12

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

So you think a sub-29% drop on Monday is locked to happen? It's possible but not a lock. Gitesh's 235 prediction seems pretty reasonable to me. Here is what happened on February 19, 2007 for Presidents Day:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2007-02-19&p=.htm

I think last year president day is much more relevant and predictive as calendar effect wasn't strong like CD or NY

[Johnny Tran]

3 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

I wonder...had Wonder Woman been released under the Marvel brand (the exact same film but with brand recognition and goodwill) what it would make then?

It probably could have made near $600M because I know a lot of people who were worried,   they didn't realize that Patty was given the keys and the studio didn't really interfere with her 

[Valonqar]

So I wake up and see no one is tagging me to congratulate me on my BP 4 Day Over Doctor Strange Total Club? Boo. 

 

But, I'm a positive guy, so yes, Strange went down today! 

 

And my BP Over TLJ Total Club keeps looking

 

 

 

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Yeah, 235M is a joke.  It's going to easily be mid 240s

Would need just 32.8M Monday for that. I think 41M is max, slightly above TFA.

If it does 40M on Monday. It could have a Tuesday above 20M and a Wednesday of 15 and a Thursday of 12.

That would be an Opening Week of $288.8M (TFA: $390.9M, TLJ: $296.6M, JW: $296.2M) that would be above Avengers by 18.8M!!!! (Avengers: $)270M

And $87M on the four Weekdays, would be similar to JW so either 5th or 6th biggest, behind:

Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	142.889.379	21.12.2015 – 24.12.2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	111.908.355	28.12.2015 – 31.12.2015
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	96.530.374	25.12.2017 – 28.12.2017
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	89.345.263	26.12.2016 – 29.12.2016
Jurassic World	UNI	87.405.385	15.06.2015 – 18.06.2015

 

 

That's impressive.

 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think last year president day is much more relevant and predictive as calendar effect wasn't strong like CD or NY

 

Here are those numbers:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2017-02-20&order=DESC&p=.htm

[Johnny Tran]

I think all other Presidents Days are out the window for comparisons.  BP has a head of steam that we've only seen once before. 

[fabiopazzo2]

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

Monday AM writethru after 12:05AM post: Disney has verified this morning what we saw in the middle of the night, that T’Challa recorded the second-best Sunday ever at the domestic B.O., however with $60.1M (higher than the industry’s $59.55M estimate last night), ranking behind the all-time record held by Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($60.5M on Dec. 20, 2015). This now pushes Black Panther to a 3-day of $201.8M; still the 5th best domestic opening of all-time after 2012’s Avengers ($207.4M)

 

Disney does see Black Panther making $235M over four-days which means it will beat the Friday-Monday hauls of of Avengers ($226.3M) and Jurassic World ($234.1M). But there are those in the industry who believe that T’Challa has a shot to be the second-highest 4-day opener ever with as much as $242M-$245M behind Star Wars: Force Awakens ($288M) and taking out Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($241.6M).

In order for Black Panther to claw his way to that height, it would mean that Monday’s ease from Sunday would range between -30% to -32% or $40.3M to $41.75M. Disney’s projections this morning figure today will decline -45% from Sunday, in which case Presidents Day would yield $33.2M for a $235M  FSSM.

Edited February 19, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Here are those numbers:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2017-02-20&order=DESC&p=.htm

They all dropped more than 19% on Sunday.

 

I wouldn't say a single one of them is a good comparison.

 

[grey ghost]

10 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I'm still trying to understand how this is surprising?  And why is it a comparison?  BP is going to beat every team up movie except maybe the first Avengers.   This is about much more than just another super hero movie.  I see some here are still failing to realize the momentum BP had going for it and the difference between this which is a real film and most CBMs that have nothing to say..  

Alot of popular and successful superhero movies make the most money because they're fun.

 

But yes, BP and WW struck a chord with audiences on a much deeper level which doubles or triples their domestic take.

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

Monday AM writethru after 12:05AM post: Disney has verified this morning what we saw in the middle of the night, that T’Challa recorded the second-best Sunday ever at the domestic B.O., however with $60.1M (higher than the industry’s $59.55M estimate last night), ranking behind the all-time record held by Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($60.5M on Dec. 20, 2015). This now pushes Black Panther to a 3-day of $201.8M; still the 5th best domestic opening of all-time after 2012’s Avengers ($207.4M)

Once again Asgard was right.

 

Way before anyone else, I might add.

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

Monday AM writethru after 12:05AM post: Disney has verified this morning what we saw in the middle of the night, that T’Challa recorded the second-best Sunday ever at the domestic B.O., however with $60.1M (higher than the industry’s $59.55M estimate last night), ranking behind the all-time record held by Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($60.5M on Dec. 20, 2015). This now pushes Black Panther to a 3-day of $201.8M; still the 5th best domestic opening of all-time after 2012’s Avengers ($207.4M)

Lawd almighty. FUCKIN' LAWD ALMIGHTY.

 

With or without holiday Monday boosting Sunday's numbers, it's hard not to say that, w/Panther opening to these numbers (for admitedly very exclusive reasons), all bets are off for Infinity War. We shall see when May comes around.

[Valonqar]

Guys, stop talking boxoffice, lets go see BP again! C'mon, c'mon, lets get it to over 240M! 

[WrathOfHan]

So close!