BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[Ithil]

What I can say about Infinity War is I guarantee that Black Panther will be a large portion of the poster.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Oh Tele...

 

You don't think it’ll make a lot of money?  

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

For every IT, you have a no1curr like Unfriended. It's never been a reliable way of gauging potential.

Is that true, did you really find out it balance out to a correlation of zero ? I always have really impressive result everytime I tried to look between a link between youtube views and box office.

 

Unfriended was giant success that made like 64 time it's budget with a low P&A and extremely frontloadded, not sure how it discount the predictive value of trailer views.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Is that true, did you really find out it balance out to a correlation of zero ? I always have really impressive result everytime I tried to look between a link between youtube views and box office.

 

Unfriended was giant success that made like 64 time it's budget with a low P&A and extremely frontloadded, not sure how it discount the predictive value of trailer views.

What about The Mummy? It majorly flopped in the us

[Ethan Hunt]

YouTube view are probably a better way of assessing awareness than assessing actual interest

[dudalb]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Trailer views will always be a useless way of measuring box office potential.

Not exactly useless...they can be useful for showing public interest in a movie...but agree they are not as a reliable an indicator as a lot of people here believe.

Most of the people who predict huge box office based pretty much upon trailer views...are fans of the movie who are looking for good news anyway.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Is that true, did you really find out it balance out to a correlation of zero ? I always have really impressive result everytime I tried to look between a link between youtube views and box office.

 

Unfriended was giant success that made like 64 time it's budget with a low P&A and extremely frontloadded, not sure how it discount the predictive value of trailer views.

Unfriended had like $30M+ trailer views and ended up not making a dent at the box office. Granted, the trailer for it was clickbait of the highest order.

[MJL]

10 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Trailer views is a stupid argument. Not a valid metric. I’ve probably watched IW 50-100 times. Maybe more. It’s the same people watching the trailer over and over again 

And your 50-100 times watching the video counts for 1 view if it was from the same IP address and google account.  So, no it’s actually not a stupid argument if you know how YouTube’s algorithms work.

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 You're aware half or more of those are generated by feeds that automatically play when you scroll past, right?

He probably is, but that is true for all of them.

 

I am not sure why having such an open non-data conversation about a subject like that at all, people can take 200 movies look the R², if it give result without even having to do any work to just compare apple to apple (genre, mpaa rating, release date, theater count, views in general or just 4 weeks before release) it make it obvious that it is an interesting metric, if the R² is below .5, than it need work to look if there is something there.

 

I mean there is a extremelly strong correlation between views and OW, the biggest I have ever seen in public data, and people are talking about Rotten tomatoes on this site when predicting when it never shown statistically to be a factor of OW (really low R² and it require work to not have one of about 0).

 

[Noctis]

53 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Yeah my best comp is DHP2.  That had a 2.25x in the middle of summer 7 years ago.  It also didn't have huge competition (its biggest was Captain America and Rise of the Planet of the Apes), while Infinity War has to face Dead2ool and Solo (both gonna have 100M+ OW's)

How was Captain America a week after and PotA the next week not big competition?

[Lordmandeep]

The simple question I would ask everyone was the reaction and attention that the Infinity War Trailer generated..,

 

- more then expected 

- As expected 

- Less than expected.

[MrGlass2]

35 minutes ago, Telehilation said:

 

Nope, I think there’s a chance it doesn’t. Everyone who’s stoked about the 10 year buildup already went to ULTRON. 

But it's THANOS!!!

[That One Girl]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 You're aware half or more of those are generated by feeds that automatically play when you scroll past, right?

 

You're aware that it's still fucking 191M views, right?

[Thrylos 7]

How this thread became a “let’s downplay IW” , I have no idea.

[Noctis]

I still don't feel like it's impossible for IW to finish below BP. Black Panther has hit the zeitgeist in a way IW can never hope to achieve. I also don't think it will be anywhere near as acclaimed as BP.

 

 

[Jandrew]

2 minutes ago, MJL said:

And your 50-100 times watching the video counts for 1 view if it was from the same IP address and google account.  So, no it’s actually not a stupid argument if you know how YouTube’s algorithms work.

Wait, so youre telling me half of the worlds population watched Despacito on Youtube? Not sure about that.

 

5 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

YouTube view are probably a better way of assessing awareness than assessing actual interest

 

This.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

How was Captain America a week after and PotA the next week not big competition?

 

It's competition, but not as big compared to what Infinity War will face (plus PotA was 2 weeks after Captain America)

[Barnack]

Just now, filmlover said:

Unfriended had like $30M+ trailer views and ended up not making a dent at the box office. Granted, the trailer for it was clickbait of the highest order.

It made 64 times it's budget at the box office, it opened very well with this low amount of tv ads:

 

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/7eal/unfriended-movie-trailer

 

1) Are we really cherry picking example on a message board called box office theory ? we should be way above that, we should be talking about a large sample set and look what is going on.

 

2) Unfriended did extremely well at the box office

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

But it's THANOS!!! movies 

Ah yes the big ugly purple guy who had done effectively nothing in these movies

[Maxmoser3]

This is an amazing weekend! This is even more exciting than The Last Jedi to be honest. February 2018 should match February 2012’s record if not pass it. 

 

March won’t be like last year since the first weekend will have a so-so hit with Red Sparrow, and Death Wish could open modest. A Wrinkle In Time could have a solid debut. Tomb Raider is a toss-up it needs a $30-$35 million debut. Pacific Rim 2 will bomb. Ready Player One should do pretty good.

 

April will be more modest budget profits like A Quiet Place, Blockers, I Feel Pretty. Truth Or Dare, and Overboard. Rampage is 50/50, should do sucessful but it’s facing a huge May, two weeks later. 

 

May should Infinity War, Solo(yeah I know it’s a dud), and Deadpool 2. Life Of The Party will play like Hot Pursuit.

 

June’s big stackers will be Incredibles 2, Jurassic World 2, and to a smaller extent Ocean’s 8. Everything else should be ok or duds.

 

July is insanely packed. Antman 2 should do Thor 2 numbers. Purge 4 should either do Anarchy or Election Year numbers. HT3 will make Cars 3 numbers. Skyscraper will be a hit and do maybe San Andreas numbers if good. Equalizer 2 needs a damn trailer for me to decide. MI6 should do Star Trek Beyond numbers. Mamá Mía 2 is My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 2.0. 

 

August is DOA, let’s decide as it gets closer. 

 

September has The Nun which should do Annabelle 2 or Conjuring 2 numbers. The Predator will have overseas that’s it. House With The Clock In It’s Walls needs a trailer. Night School should do well for counter programming in an adult October coming its way. 

 

October at this point is a mixed bag. Venom could be like Blade Runner 2049 or The Martian. First Man should be a word of mouth and possibly play the same way as comparable adult dramas such as Argo, Bridge Of Spies, or even Captain Phillips. Halloween should PA3 level numbers or Happy Death Day. 

 

Novemver and December is TBD