BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[MCKillswitch123]

I can safely say that big trailer views mean that at least 1 person saw a trailer and possibly will see the movie.

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Sam]

42 minutes ago, Telehilation said:

I don’t think IW is locked for 200m, let alone 210m. No question it’ll make a lot of money, though. 

@Chewy Need an obligatory link to that TA under IM1 club

[Alli]

8 minutes ago, MJL said:

And your 50-100 times watching the video counts for 1 view if it was from the same IP address and google account.  So, no it’s actually not a stupid argument if you know how YouTube’s algorithms work.

I dont think this is true. Watch a less  viewed video and you’ll see every view counts... doesnt matter if its from the same IP

Edited February 17, 2018 by Alli

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Unfriended had like $30M+ trailer views and ended up not making a dent at the box office. Granted, the trailer for it was clickbait of the highest order.

 

Unfriended made $32M domestically/$64M worldwide on a $1M budget and likely made a lot of money from rentals and home video market (I know a lot of people at my school who've seen it and imagine it's similar at other schools)

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

@Chewy Need an obligatory link to that TA under IM1 club

 

I'm not Chewy but here it is

 

 

[Ethan Hunt]

Speaking of Avengers movies going under Iron Man

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Valonqar]

BP is going to be the first MCU movie to cross 1B WW w/o RDJ. It has insane WOM everywhere, it's super rewatchable (if you can find tickets that is, ha, ha) looks different which excites people, and then there's Kendrick Lamar. Popular songs are known to boost the boxoffice (Furious 7, Skyfall). It's a perfect storm, people. 500M milestone dom will happen plus 500M milestone OS. Anything over is a gravy train. Believe!

 

P.S. Disney's gonna lowball estimates to claim even bigger actuals. Watch!

Edited February 17, 2018 by Valonqar

[DAR]

Is it a bad thing I don’t remember what Unfriended was?

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Alli said:

I dont think this is true. Watch a less  viewed video and you’ll see every view counts... doesnt matter if its from the same IP

You are right I think:

https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/2991785?hl=en

https://www.quora.com/If-one-person-watches-the-same-YouTube-video-twice-does-it-count-it-as-one-or-two-views

 

It is just if it detect you are a machine (by watching a trailer over 300 times for example) that it will stop counting them.

[The Panda]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

For every IT, you have a no1curr like Unfriended. It's never been a reliable way of gauging potential.

Definitely disagree here.  There’s some outliers, and there’s not a solid view to ticket correlation, however the trend is there.

 

Id be curious to revisit it for the 2017 releases like I did for 2016. Came out as a statistically significant relationship.  The main 2017 outlier was The Mummy.

 

Also, most those outliers you can deduce by looking to see if there’s another explanation for the viewcount.

 

Many times, when a blockbuster underperforms, you can spot it beforehand by seeing how its viewcounts are relating to previous movies in its franchise and movies similar to it.  War for the Planet of the Apes for example was sub-7m views or so pre-release as one anecdotal point.

 

It’s not the only thing you should look at, but you’d be a fool to discount a movie like IT or IW for Breaking trailer view records because you think trailer views don’t matter.  They are one of the few public quantative datapoints that we have for BO pre-release.

[filmlover]

Just now, DAR said:

Is it a bad thing I don’t remember what Unfriended was?

It was actually one of the better movies in the "found footage" genre. No easy feat considering how littered with bad movies that particular genre is (or was, since it's now passé).

[That One Girl]

I'm sorry I started up the trailer views debate again btw.  I really am.

[Alli]

The argument that BP is in IW so the bo will increse, doesnt make sense. WW was in JL and the BO still sucked

[DAR]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

It was actually one of the better movies in the "found footage" genre. No easy feat considering how littered with bad movies that particular genre is (or was, since it's now passé).

Found footage that’s a phrase where DAR exits stage left 

[Deep Wang]

19 minutes ago, Telehilation said:

 

You don't think it’ll make a lot of money?  

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, Alli said:

What about The Mummy? It majorly flopped in the us

Very international title and youtube is a bit of an international metric, that movie still opened close to 100m ww minus China and went over 300m WW minus China, not bad at all for a movie with a first trailer with 40m and a second trailer down to 13M views (or I am missing something ?).

[Lordmandeep]

To me all the trailer views for IW mean is that, the under 400 million dollar predictions are just troll predictions

[Alli]

Just now, Barnack said:

Very international title and youtube is a bit of an international metric, that movie still opened close to 100m ww minus China and went over 300m WW minus China, not bad at all for a movie with a first trailer with 40m and a second trailer down to 13M views (or I am missing something ?).

Thats the thing that sucks about youtube. We dont know where does views come from. A movie trailer may play better internationally. 

[DAR]

For all we know BP could have the same amount of screen time he had in Civil War in IW.  Plus I don’t think they’re going to put him front and center in any type of effort to save the movie

[fabiopazzo2]

the hype for IW is at the same level as TFA