BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

2018 it's just the appetizers for the 2019 big feast! IW2, Lion King, Aladdin, Toy Story 4, Frozen 2 and Ep9 ... i can see 5-6 500M+ dom here.

 

Ughhhhhh

Edited February 17, 2018 by That One Guy

[Brainbug]

The only movie in 2019 that i seriously cant wait to see is Godzilla 2.

[Lordmandeep]

I am gonna say 60 million Saturday is happening + 

[NCsoft]

36 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

I don't think any movie can get near TFA levels of hype again. Maybe if Star Wars takes a 10 year wait for the next episode and cancels all the spin offs.

If we're talking worldwide Avatar 2 will be easily more hyped. Nobody in China was hyped for TFA.

Also, Furious 7 OS > TFA OS.

[Water Bottle]

8 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Well, we'll disagree here.

You can have all the great marketing you want these days but if quality isn't there then the movie isn't leggy, marketing is great for a strong start but quality is important if you want your movie to hold well after the OW. Quality can also be a factor to have a breakthrough in markets that could be hostile/indifferent to your product.

 

I think it's a bit early to talk about BP legs when we are still in a 4 day OW. So if it has great legs you can say quality. But right now it's just the open.

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

 

I'm interested in A Wrinkle In Time because I see it as a welcoming break from the usual movies/blockbusters we have most of the time, it could be a trump card somehow.

The novel was quite popular when it first came out. It was still popular when I was growing up as well. I definitely think the film will do better then a lot of people expect. The budget is only around 91m, and it's got a decent release date as well. 

[MaxAggressor]

NATM legs from here on out gets Jumanji 2 to 407.43 million.   

 

J2 has been steadily gaining against NATM and growing further ahead in full steam in terms of legs since I started the 'NATM Legs' gimmick.

 

After 6th Weekend: 395.4 million

After 7th Weekend: 396.8 million

After 8th Weekend: 398.5 million

After 9th Weekend: 407.4 million

 

The only way J2 doesn't achieve 'NATM legs' is if the former starts losing theaters at a fast clip. A rapid decline in theater counts is the only way J2 fails to clear 400 million because J2 will still finish north of 400 million even if it collapses 20% against NATM from 9th weekend on-wards which is highly unlikely (read 'nigh impossible') atm. So yeah, 400 million is locked for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle.      

[Brainbug]

Just now, NCsoft said:

If we're talking worldwide Avatar 2 will be easily more hyped. Nobody in China was hyped for TFA.

Also, Furious 7 OS > TFA OS.

 

Ehhh. TFA was the most hyped movie of this decade both in North America and Europe and also got decent amounts of hype in Japan. China was hyped till they saw it since they werent familiar with SW. Cut Chinas BO from both movies and Furious 7 OS run is still very impressive, but cant hold up to TFA.

As for Avatar 2, it remains to be seen. At the moment, i dont think anyone feels the need for that movies existence.

[Thrylos 7]

20 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Black Panther didn't just gross more than I expected DOM, it completely went beyond my most optimistic expectations in OS markets, that's incredible.

It also shows that a black cast is not an issue in today's world if quality and good marketing are there

 

Great job T'Challa

 

 

 

I wrote that it had great hype in the os markets when many people were predominantly starting to insult people outside the u,s for being...racist, in the BP thread.

[B D Joe]

Trump card?

[ThomasNicole]

18 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

The hype is certainly there for The Incredibles 2, unless it's somehow considered an underwhelming sequel (possible I suppose), then it should do over 400m.

 

Poppins has the potential to win the Christmas movie season, even with the massive competition, so yeah it should be a great year for Disney. I could also see A Wrinkle in Time doing decent business if it gets good reviews. The book is fairly popular. 

I think Incredibles 2 will be great... i see some people saying the last sneak peak is underwhelming, but i imagine they just hiding the plot, this seems to be norm in Disney marketing these days

 

I also think Wrinkle in Time could do around $ 150M if is good, Ant-Man should do $ 230 - 250M too

 

16 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

2018 it's just the appetizers for the 2019 big feast! IW2, Lion King, Aladdin, Toy Story 4, Frozen 2 and Ep9 ... i can see 5-6 500M+ dom here.

Yeah, they calendar next year is mind blowing, the best i ever seen 

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Ehhh. TFA was the most hyped movie of this decade both in North America and Europe and also got decent amounts of hype in Japan. China was hyped till they saw it since they werent familiar with SW. Cut Chinas BO from both movies and Furious 7 OS run is still very impressive, but cant hold up to TFA.

As for Avatar 2, it remains to be seen. At the moment, i dont think anyone feels the need for that movies existence.

 

Pretty much, I was excited about seeing Avatar thanks to 3D and great CGI but the rest was pretty basic and it was 8 years ago, I don't care much about it now...People expecting records for Avatar 2 could be VERY disappointed, the hype is pretty limited.

The sequel should've come several years ago, the hype faded...or at least I feel that way.

[Fullbuster]

6 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

I think it's a bit early to talk about BP legs when we are still in a 4 day OW. So if it has great legs you can say quality. But right now it's just the open.

 

OK, fair enough

 

4 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

I wrote that it had great hype in the os markets when many people were predominantly starting to insult people outside the u,s for being...racist, in the BP thread.

 

Saying the rest of the world is racist when the US elected Trump, it's.... LOL

[Avatree]

7 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

@Treeing Me Apart thoughts?

I still believe Black Panther domestic gross will be less than dr strange.... Definitely

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Ehhh. TFA was the most hyped movie of this decade both in North America and Europe and also got decent amounts of hype in Japan. China was hyped till they saw it since they werent familiar with SW. Cut Chinas BO from both movies and Furious 7 OS run is still very impressive, but cant hold up to TFA.

As for Avatar 2, it remains to be seen. At the moment, i dont think anyone feels the need for that movies existence.

Why would anyone want to cut China's box office away from Furious 7, when China has more population than Europe combined, just because Europe is technically different countries? China is massive and will soon become the number 1 market in the world, and what China is hyped for counts at least as much as what Europe or NA is hyped for.

TFA was hyped by a small group of people in China sure, but a lot of people simply rushed out to see it, because of the headline "surpassing Avatar in North America", it's really more curiosity than actual hype because they don't even know who princess Leia and Luke is.

TFA is the sequel to ROTJ while Avatar 2 is the sequel to the highest grossing film worldwide ever, trust me, the world will feel Avatar 2's presence when it finally arrives. The entire developing world, led by 1.4 Billion people in China, are eagerly waiting, Europe and NA too, admittedly maybe to lesser extent.

[Lordmandeep]

My local theatres are idiots and put this on only 4 screens...

 

They put CW Ultron and such on 5-6 screens.

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think Incredibles 2 will be great... i see some people saying the last sneak peak is underwhelming, but i imagine they just hiding the plot, this seems to be norm in Disney marketing these days

 

I also think Wrinkle in Time could do around $ 150M if is good, Ant-Man should do $ 230 - 250M too

Disney's marketing has been pretty consistent. They've done a good job of not spoiling the main plot / last act in their films, which sometimes turns out to the best part of their films. The Incredibles 2 will probably no different.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

My local theatres are idiots and put this on only 4 screens...

 

They put CW Ultron and such on 5-6 screens.

Could be worse; it could be on only one screen like one of the theaters here  

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, NCsoft said:

Why would anyone want to cut China's box office away from Furious 7, when China has more population than Europe combined, just because Europe is technically different countries? China is massive and will soon become the number 1 market in the world, and what China is hyped for counts at least as much as what Europe or NA is hyped for.

TFA was hyped by a small group of people in China sure, but a lot of people simply rushed out to see it, because of the headline "surpassing Avatar in North America", it's really more curiosity than actual hype because they don't even know who princess Leia and Luke is.

TFA is the sequel to ROTJ while Avatar 2 is the sequel to the highest grossing film worldwide ever, trust me, the world will feel Avatar 2's presence when it finally arrives. The entire developing world, led by 1.4 Billion people in China, are eagerly waiting, Europe and NA too, admittedly maybe to lesser extent.

 

It makes the OS numbers for the movies a lot easier to compare. I personally count China as the 3rd big metric for BO numbers, besides DOM and OS (in that case OS-C). Nobodys denying that China plays a more important role with every year that passes by, but its numbers can really inflate the actual Worldwide reception of a movie. For example Warcraft: Flopped practically everywhere besides China but BOM lists it at 386M OS. 213M from that is from China alone. You see my point?

 

As for Avatar 2, predicting a movies run before we havent seen anything from the marketing is always very tricky. There were tons of people who said "Trust me, Justice League will outgross Wonder Woman" and you saw what happened. With BO, aynthing can happen. Like the implosion of the Avatar films.

[Jandrew]

Forgot about Jumanji. Called it being the next NATM, but goodness, not the next Frozen.

 

What an amazing run.