BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[Avatree]

18 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

2018 it's just the appetizers for the 2019 big feast! IW2, Lion King, Aladdin, Toy Story 4, Frozen 2 and Ep9 ... i can see 5-6 500M+ dom here.

lmao literally none of those except star wars is gonna do 500M

[YM!]

Just now, Treeing Me Apart said:

lmao literally none of those except star wars is gonna do 500M

Lion King over IX DOM

[AniNate]

Wow, just saw how terrible Early Man's opening was. On the level of Shaun the Sheep's opening Wednesday. Even the Olympics marketing blitz couldn't get Americans interested in it.

[B D Joe]

4 minutes ago, Treeing Me Apart said:

lmao literally none of those except star wars is gonna do 500M

Lion King

[meriodejaneiro]

7 minutes ago, Treeing Me Apart said:

lmao literally none of those except star wars is gonna do 500M

Not even Lion King?

I could share your doubts on Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4 (and maybe Aladdin).

But Lion King is gonna be bigger than BATB for sure. It's the most beloved animated film ever!

 

I see:

- LK on 600M

- Aladdin on BATB numbers

- IW2 on 500M if it's well marketed as the real end after IW1.

- Ep9 there's no need to say it's above 500M

- TS4 and F2 could be on the 450M+, missing the 500 by less than 50M (F was 400M and TS3 was 415M dom)

Edited February 17, 2018 by meriodejaneiro

[NCsoft]

12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

It makes the OS numbers for the movies a lot easier to compare. I personally count China as the 3rd big metric for BO numbers, besides DOM and OS (in that case OS-C). Nobodys denying that China plays a more important role with every year that passes by, but its numbers can really inflate the actual Worldwide reception of a movie. For example Warcraft: Flopped practically everywhere besides China but BOM lists it at 386M OS. 213M from that is from China alone. You see my point?

 

As for Avatar 2, predicting a movies run before we havent seen anything from the marketing is always very tricky. There were tons of people who said "Trust me, Justice League will outgross Wonder Woman" and you saw what happened. With BO, aynthing can happen. Like the implosion of the Avatar films.

I do see your point,  I'm suggesting that China is not a market comparable to a single European country, it is comparable to Europe as a whole. Therefore, if a movie succeeds in China, it's equivalent to succeeding in Europe altogether. It's really just our definition of what counts for Overseas. While you could say Furious 7's overseas performance is massively inflated due to huge China performance. I would probably counter with, TFA's oversea performance is massively inflated by its European performance as a whole, after all, countries like France, UK, Germany, Italy are not that different in their affinity to Star Wars, and China's got more people then all of them combined anyway. 

 

I'm not predicting Avatar 2's run, I'm predicting Avatar 2's hype, which is very different, and what we're talking about here is the most hyped film ever, not the best run ever. If we're talking about the runs, then Avatar is the most successful movie of the 21st century, dwarfing TFA completely. I'm saying that judging from I've observed, Avatar 2 would be an example of a more hyped film worldwide than TFA, could it eventually flop? Sure, there is a chance, but I'm strictly talking about hype.

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by NCsoft

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I'm not predicting Avatar 2's run, I'm predicting Avatar 2's hype, which is very different, and what we're talking about here is the most hyped film ever, not the best run ever. If we're talking about the runs, then Avatar is the most successful movie of the 21st century, dwarfing TFA completely. I'm saying that judging from I've observed, Avatar 2 would be an example of a more hyped film worldwide than TFA, could it eventually flop? Sure, there is a chance, but I'm strictly talking about hype.

 

 

If we're only talking about hype, then we just cant say anything about Avatar 2 yet. Not without any teasers/trailers or marketing in general. We just have to wait till the first impressions arrive.

[MaxAggressor]

Further elaborating on my previous post, here's the percentage comp of theater count drops for J2 and NATM since the 5th Weekend

 

5th-6th -> NATM (3.57%) >> J2 (3.77%)

6th-7th -> J2 (4.08%) >> NATM (6.95%)

7th-8th -> J2 (5.66%) >> NATM (7.34%)

8th-9th -> J2 (6.44%) >> NATM (10.02%)

 

NATM suffered two back to back heavy theater count drops in it's 10th (24.43%) & 11th (34.86%) weekends. If J2 can retain at a better rate than NATM in the next 2 weekends, then it'll have a great chance at passing Spider-Man (403.7 million) to become Sony's undisputed #1 in the domestic market.   

[ThomasNicole]

Avatar 2 will make + $ 1B in China alone

And the marketing probably will revival the franchise on popular imaginary worldwide

[MCKillswitch123]

16 minutes ago, Treeing Me Apart said:

lmao literally none of those except star wars is gonna do 500M

You're right. Lion King's gonna do 600M.

[Dementeleus]

1 hour ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I'd be curious to know how many people thinking IW won't do much better than Ultron also thought Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 would play like a typical Potter movie.

 

...but it did. Aside from the 3D bump. 

[KJsooner]

If nostalgia trip jumanji does 400 million, Jurassic world does 650 million, and a shitty batb remake can make 500 million. TLK will make 500 mill easily.

 

Dont count out TS4. Finding Dory almost pulled it off. 

[That One Girl]

These huge Lion King predictions so far out are silly

[Johnny Tran]

I think a lot of people want to cut China from the equation so they can attempt to downplay the Fast series. 

[NCsoft]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

If we're only talking about hype, then we just cant say anything about Avatar 2 yet. Not without any teasers/trailers or marketing in general. We just have to wait till the first impressions arrive.

That's why I'm predicting a hype, if I wait until teasers and trailers come out, that would be observing and documenting hype. That would also be  biased, because whatever is observed would strictly be west centric, particularly NA centric. the country that would be most hyped about Avatar, won't even access YouTube to contribute to Statistics. 

Also, we can definitely have hype without promotional material, I'm been in the Chinese online community for years I know how often Avatar 2 is discussed, that probably apply to many developing markets as well. Just look at the Avatar 2 thread is this very NA centric forum, it's unprecedented this far from release. TFA was also massively hyped before the very first teaser came out, as you're certainly aware.

 

 

[dudalb]

19 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Wow, just saw how terrible Early Man's opening was. On the level of Shaun the Sheep's opening Wednesday. Even the Olympics marketing blitz couldn't get Americans interested in it.

That's the whole history of this company. They almost always make good quality movies, but have never really connected with an American audience except for Chicken Run.

This saddens me, since I am a huge Wallace and Gromet fan.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

These huge Lion King predictions so far out are silly

Lion King is gonna be my next 300M OW train, pending marketing campaign.

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

These huge Lion King predictions so far out are silly

Well, Beauty And The Beast did 174/500 in March. And BATB is no Lion King.

 

The Lion King is the most famous and beloved animated film of all time. And one of the easiest four-quadrant sells ever (while BATB skewed female).

 

The remake is hitting 200M+ OW and 600M+ DOM. Believe 'dem words.

[NCsoft]

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

You're right. Lion King's gonna do 600M.

I think that will be the film landing somewhere between Titanic/Avatar domestically, if not then EP9 I guess (if it doesn't drop from TLJ). But The Lion King should do crazy business.

 

[dudalb]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

These huge Lion King predictions so far out are silly

I agree, since out of all the Disney "live action" versions of classical cartoons,Lion King has seemed to me the most problematic.

Of course most of the Lion King remake is going to be CGI, which is why I put Live Action in parathensis.

Disney easily is the most successful studio in Hollywood at the moment, but they are not infallible and make failures on occasion. But Disney is in such good finiancial shape they can just shrug them off. Alice 2 was a huge bomb The Mouse went on as if nothing had happened, whereas with many studios heads would have rolled .