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MaxAggressor

Daily Numbers | Tuesday 27th Feb | BP 10.2m Game Night 1.9m Annihilation 1.21m

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Black Panther:

 

7.7M (-24%)

7.2M (-6%)

 

15.1M (+110%)

24.2M (+60%)

15.7M (-35%)

55M Weekend, 51% drop

 

Dunno if I'm feeling a 60M weekend anymore with that somewhat muted Tuesday. It'll be losing some PLFs to Red Sparrow, and the Oscars will lead to a bigger Sunday drop.

 

Game Night:

 

1.2M (-35%)

1.1M (-5%)

 

2.8M (+150%)

4.8M (+70%)

2.8M (-42%)

10.4M Weekend, 39% drop

 

Annihilation:

 

900k (-28%)

840K (-7%)

 

1.7M (+100%)

2.4M (+40%)

1.4M (-40%)

5.5M Weekend, 52% drop

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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Black Panther:

 

7.7M (-24%)

7.2M (-6%)

 

15.1M (+110%)

24.2M (+60%)

15.7M (-35%)

55M Weekend, 51% drop

 

Dunno if I'm feeling a 60M weekend anymore with that somewhat muted Tuesday. It'll be losing some PLFs to Red Sparrow, and the Oscars will lead to a bigger Sunday drop.

 

Game Night:

 

1.2M (-35%)

1.1M (-5%)

 

2.8M (+150%)

4.8M (+70%)

2.8M (-42%)

10.4M Weekend, 39% drop

 

Annihilation:

 

900k (-28%)

840K (-7%)

 

1.7M (+100%)

2.4M (+40%)

1.4M (-40%)

5.5M Weekend, 52% drop

I think the oscar's will have more impact for Best picture nominees than others on sunday, since the people who cares about the oscar will then watch the telecast and not going for those BP nominees in cinema.....

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Deadline's weekend prediction:

 

Moviegoers will continue to be transfixed by Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther in its third weekend shelling out between $61M-$67M.

 

On the high-end of ranges, tracking services believe Red Sparrow could go to $20M-$24M, and Death Wish to potentially $20M, but, again, Black Panther‘s big footing in the marketplace coupled with each pic’s qualities weigh down on these ambitions.

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35 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Deadpool increased 15.5% on 2nd Tuesday. So BP's 25%+ increase is very good even with the bigger discount ticket effect in 2018 (w.r.t 2016).

DP was R-rated though and held better on Monday (-72% vs -77%) too. But yeah, 25% is a solid bump for BP.

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15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Black Panther:

 

7.7M (-24%)

7.2M (-6%)

 

15.1M (+110%)

24.2M (+60%)

15.7M (-35%)

55M Weekend, 51% drop

 

Dunno if I'm feeling a 60M weekend anymore with that somewhat muted Tuesday. It'll be losing some PLFs to Red Sparrow, and the Oscars will lead to a bigger Sunday drop.

 

Game Night:

 

1.2M (-35%)

1.1M (-5%)

 

2.8M (+150%)

4.8M (+70%)

2.8M (-42%)

10.4M Weekend, 39% drop

 

Annihilation:

 

900k (-28%)

840K (-7%)

 

1.7M (+100%)

2.4M (+40%)

1.4M (-40%)

5.5M Weekend, 52% drop

 

Last week it had very similar Friday jump to Deadpool, but much stronger Saturday jump and Sunday hold compared to Deadpool. For third weekend, Deadpool increased 130% Friday, increased 60% Saturday, and dropped 43% Sunday. I'm going with your $7.2m Thursday and the following scenario...

 

FRI - $16.6m (+130%)

SAT - $28.2m (+70%)

SUN - $18.3m (-35%)

 

That's about $63m for the weekend.

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1 minute ago, a2knet said:

DP was R-rated though and held better on Monday (-72% vs -77%) too.

That's a good point. So should we assume that BP will probably hold slightly better than Deadpool on all days given the MPAA ratings disadvantage for the latter?? Or is there more nuance to it regarding different days in a week??

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19 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think the oscar's will have more impact for Best picture nominees than others on sunday, since the people who cares about the oscar will then watch the telecast and not going for those BP nominees in cinema.....

Yeah, I feel like the audience seeing Black Panther on the 3rd weekend might not exactly be the biggest Oscar broadcast viewers. I don't see it having a major impact on it's Sunday numbers.

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6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Last week it had very similar Friday jump to Deadpool, but much stronger Saturday jump and Sunday hold compared to Deadpool. For third weekend, Deadpool increased 130% Friday, increased 60% Saturday, and dropped 43% Sunday. I'm going with your $7.2m Thursday and the following scenario...

 

FRI - $16.6m (+130%)

SAT - $28.2m (+70%)

SUN - $18.3m (-35%)

 

That's about $63m for the weekend.

Deadpool also increased on the Thursday - so, there's the possibility that Black Panther's Thursday drop will be better or flat from Wednesday. Even last Thursday Black Panther only dropped 3%.

 

Peace,

Mike

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