Godzilla: King of the Monsters OS thread

[Sunny Max]

35 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

I mean technically Aladdin went from 78M to 54M (13.6M from new territories including Japan), but I understand your point.

 

But no one here was ever comparing KoTM to Aladdin. They are categorically two different kind of films, with KoTM skewing away from families and more fan driven, making it naturally more frontloaded  (though of course in this case its a bit excessively frontloaded). KoTM also made a bigger percentage of its revenue in fast-burn markets like China and regions in SE asia, so again, comparing 2nd weekend drops between Aladdin and KoTM is mostly apples to oranges

 

Also, about KoTM dropping faster than G14, G14's second weekend was a holiday. no doubt it would have fallen harder otherwise. So I would say KoTM may hold a bit better from here than G14 did (G14 dropped 66.8% 2nd weekend and 61.2% third weekend). Still, I dont think it has much more than 25M in the tank domestically. Internatioanlly, this 2nd weekend drop wasnt that bad, on par with most day-to-date release superhero flicks like Shazam, CM and AEG (or FotF) which are much better comparisons given the naturally frontloaded nature of these films).

 

Still, even if Godzilla drops hard from here on out, it should be able to reach 375M worldwide (thats a miserable 1.6x from its second weekend dom and an equally miserable 1.2x of its intl second weekend). With just a very slight overperformance from my perhaps overly conservative estimates, that means 400M is still very much in play, a number that really will go a long way towards saving face. This is not a bomb, its just a bit of a disappointment. 

 

For those who watched the deadline interview, they might push GvK back a bit. The tone of Emmerich's voice, however, was far from that of someone who has given up hope in the Monsterverse. As I said before, that this film can "disappoint" with close to 400M worldwide shows there is still a lot of potential in the franchise. Besides, between 1) a shitty release date (competition) 2) shitty ER 3) many people turned off from the previous film and 4) critic reviews, KoTM had the cards stacked against it. I have faith in GvK, and as long as that one merely performs well (~575M - 600M WW) you can count on these films continuing

Yes you are right .. we cant compare these 2 film .. both are totally different film ..

 

The issue is KOTM Opened 50% Less than GD-2014 in Almost all markets .. this is why drop in overseas looking big .. again we cant compare KOTM with any superhero film..

 

movie looking to $375 M WW finish .. (terrible 1.6x in domestic & 1.2x in Os) 

[Claudio]

59 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

I mean technically Aladdin went from 78M to 54M (13.6M from new territories including Japan), but I understand your point.

 

But no one here was ever comparing KoTM to Aladdin. They are categorically two different kind of films, with KoTM skewing away from families and more fan driven, making it naturally more frontloaded  (though of course in this case its a bit excessively frontloaded). KoTM also made a bigger percentage of its revenue in fast-burn markets like China and regions in SE asia, so again, comparing 2nd weekend drops between Aladdin and KoTM is mostly apples to oranges

 

Also, about KoTM dropping faster than G14, G14's second weekend was a holiday. no doubt it would have fallen harder otherwise. So I would say KoTM may hold a bit better from here than G14 did (G14 dropped 66.8% 2nd weekend and 61.2% third weekend). Still, I dont think it has much more than 25M in the tank domestically. Internatioanlly, this 2nd weekend drop wasnt that bad, on par with most day-to-date release superhero flicks like Shazam, CM and AEG (or FotF) which are much better comparisons given the naturally frontloaded nature of these films).

 

Still, even if Godzilla drops hard from here on out, it should be able to reach 375M worldwide (thats a miserable 1.6x from its second weekend dom and an equally miserable 1.2x of its intl second weekend). With just a very slight overperformance from my perhaps overly conservative estimates, that means 400M is still very much in play, a number that really will go a long way towards saving face. This is not a bomb, its just a bit of a disappointment. 

 

For those who watched the deadline interview, they might push GvK back a bit. The tone of Emmerich's voice, however, was far from that of someone who has given up hope in the Monsterverse. As I said before, that this film can "disappoint" with close to 400M worldwide shows there is still a lot of potential in the franchise. Besides, between 1) a shitty release date (competition) 2) shitty ER 3) many people turned off from the previous film and 4) critic reviews, KoTM had the cards stacked against it. I have faith in GvK, and as long as that one merely performs well (~575M - 600M WW) you can count on these films continuing

Hmm... Good point.

 

But anyway ICYMI , I just explained what @RamblinRedsaid to @Sunny Maxcause he didn't get it so that's not what I'm trying to say tho.

[lorddemaxus]

17 hours ago, Justin4125 said:

I mean technically Aladdin went from 78M to 54M (13.6M from new territories including Japan), but I understand your point.

 

But no one here was ever comparing KoTM to Aladdin. They are categorically two different kind of films, with KoTM skewing away from families and more fan driven, making it naturally more frontloaded  (though of course in this case its a bit excessively frontloaded). KoTM also made a bigger percentage of its revenue in fast-burn markets like China and regions in SE asia, so again, comparing 2nd weekend drops between Aladdin and KoTM is mostly apples to oranges

 

Also, about KoTM dropping faster than G14, G14's second weekend was a holiday. no doubt it would have fallen harder otherwise. So I would say KoTM may hold a bit better from here than G14 did (G14 dropped 66.8% 2nd weekend and 61.2% third weekend). Still, I dont think it has much more than 25M in the tank domestically. Internatioanlly, this 2nd weekend drop wasnt that bad, on par with most day-to-date release superhero flicks like Shazam, CM and AEG (or FotF) which are much better comparisons given the naturally frontloaded nature of these films).

 

Still, even if Godzilla drops hard from here on out, it should be able to reach 375M worldwide (thats a miserable 1.6x from its second weekend dom and an equally miserable 1.2x of its intl second weekend). With just a very slight overperformance from my perhaps overly conservative estimates, that means 400M is still very much in play, a number that really will go a long way towards saving face. This is not a bomb, its just a bit of a disappointment. 

 

For those who watched the deadline interview, they might push GvK back a bit. The tone of Emmerich's voice, however, was far from that of someone who has given up hope in the Monsterverse. As I said before, that this film can "disappoint" with close to 400M worldwide shows there is still a lot of potential in the franchise. Besides, between 1) a shitty release date (competition) 2) shitty ER 3) many people turned off from the previous film and 4) critic reviews, KoTM had the cards stacked against it. I have faith in GvK, and as long as that one merely performs well (~575M - 600M WW) you can count on these films continuing

Thanks for this comment. This movie had the most disappointing box office result so far this year for me and this comment made me feel a bit better. I too hope that GvK can undo the disappointment caused by this film.

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Thanks for this comment. This movie had the most disappointing box office result so far this year for me and this comment made me feel a bit better. I too hope that GvK can undo the disappointment caused by this film.

Gvk can Definitely Do Far better than KOTM ... i have high hopes .. this movie could change the direction of Monsterverse ...

[Cookson]

Gonna predict that it’ll have a great weekend hold domestically for 8-10 million. It lost its imax screens, so of course weekend 2 would drop hard. So week 3 compared to week 2 is what we need to look at domestically.

 

China still looks good. Let’s get that 140... if it goes over that.. great!

 

Still hoping for over 30 in Japan.

 

400 is definitely in the cards still. 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2019 by Cookson

[Sunny Max]

1 hour ago, Cookson said:

Gonna predict that it’ll have a great weekend hold domestically for 8-10 million. It lost its imax screens, so of course weekend 2 would drop hard. So week 3 compared to week 2 is what we need to look at domestically.

 

China still looks good. Let’s get that 140... if it goes over that.. great!

 

Still hoping for over 30 in Japan.

 

400 is definitely in the cards still. 

 

 

$135 m Chi + $30 M Japan ...  $115 M Domestic ..(minimum) 

 

Worldwide life time numbers could be $385 M+ ... $400 M will depend on other OS markets .. (trending is been below-average)

 

 

[a2k]

Yesterday Deadline had estimated 47.1 OS weekend for 213.7 cume.

Today Mojo says 216.0 OS so assuming that the weekend ended up a little higher at ~48.4.

 

Feel good about 400 ww. Not a lock but likely.

Dom is set for ~105 so 295 OS, meaning 79 more after 48.4 weekend required.

 

Can do 410 ww,

110 D + 145 Ch + 32.5 J + 122.5 OS-Ch-J = ~159 theatrical revenue (110*0.55 + 145*0.25 + 155*0.40)

[Sunny Max]

8 minutes ago, a2k said:

Yesterday Deadline had estimated 47.1 OS weekend for 213.7 cume.

Today Mojo says 216.0 OS so assuming that the weekend ended up a little higher at ~48.4.

 

Feel good about 400 ww. Not a lock but likely.

Dom is set for ~105 so 295 OS, meaning 79 more after 48.4 weekend required.

 

Can do 410 ww,

110 D + 145 Ch + 32.5 J + 122.5 OS-Ch-J = ~159 theatrical revenue (110*0.55 + 145*0.25 + 155*0.40)

$115 M domestic possible .. $140 M china + $30 M Japan  + $115 M OS-Ch-Ja = $400 M + WW ...   

[Cookson]

Godzilla is basically at 300 WW...

 

30 more domestic 

30 more China

10 more Japan

=370

Hopefully they can do a little more

 

that would leave 30 more from other OS territories. I believe we still have a few more openers soon... Spain being the biggest potential.

 

It really will come down to the wire with it getting to 400. Like I said.. maybe it does 35 more dom... 35 China and 12 more japan... those would add up big for a film crawling to 400 at the end.

[Sunny Max]

$385 M To $400 M .... 

[WP Kelley]

Is there anyway to follow International minus China and Japan? I can never find those numbers outside Box Office Mojo, and they don't update very often. If I'm correct, Godzilla has $85 Dom, $115 China and $15 Japan? Any idea the rest of the world? An average of only $2 mill per country would be $100. Correct?

[Sunny Max]

16 minutes ago, WP Kelley said:

Is there anyway to follow International minus China and Japan? I can never find those numbers outside Box Office Mojo, and they don't update very often. If I'm correct, Godzilla has $85 Dom, $115 China and $15 Japan? Any idea the rest of the world? An average of only $2 mill per country would be $100. Correct?

you should visit each country box office thread here in BOT .. so you can find weekend/weekly/daily box office updates    

Edited June 13, 2019 by Sunny Max

[Tower]

30 minutes ago, WP Kelley said:

Is there anyway to follow International minus China and Japan? I can never find those numbers outside Box Office Mojo, and they don't update very often. If I'm correct, Godzilla has $85 Dom, $115 China and $15 Japan? Any idea the rest of the world? An average of only $2 mill per country would be $100. Correct?

That's just a matter of taking the OS total you could find on Mojo and other places and removing the grosses from those countries which you could usually find on this forum.

 

Also, you shouldn't worry about the number of markets, even outside of China, most grosses will come from a few larger markets with a whole lot of tiny ones where 2M would make be a new record adding a small amount.

[Sunny Max]

Big drop in China & Japan ... $400 M WW is out of reach now ...

Edited June 13, 2019 by Sunny Max

[ZeeSoh]

7 hours ago, WP Kelley said:

Is there anyway to follow International minus China and Japan? I can never find those numbers outside Box Office Mojo, and they don't update very often. If I'm correct, Godzilla has $85 Dom, $115 China and $15 Japan? Any idea the rest of the world? An average of only $2 mill per country would be $100. Correct?

The @BORreport twitter handle reports OS breakdown by countries every weekend (at least for the first few weekends, more if its a huge movie). You can use their breakdown and manually calculate the OS total up to that point by subtracting the Chinese and Japanese totals till that point. 

 

Alternatively you can visit the respective countries threads on this forum to find out their recent totals and subtract that from the OS total. 

[RamblinRed]

17 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

Big drop in China & Japan ... $400 M WW is out of reach now ...

Last 24 hours have not been good. Took a big hit in theater count in the DOM market for this weekend. Lost over 900 theaters, over 20% of its total.

 

I think it is looking at an 8 to maybe 8.5 weekend even with Father's Day as in the theaters it is staying in it appears to be getting the smallest screens.

 

With TS4 coming out next week in over 4,400 theaters and probably at least twice as many screens I expect another big theater hit next week.

Thinking a 105-107 final total in the DOM market.

 

[Sunny Max]

1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

Last 24 hours have not been good. Took a big hit in theater count in the DOM market for this weekend. Lost over 900 theaters, over 20% of its total.

 

I think it is looking at an 8 to maybe 8.5 weekend even with Father's Day as in the theaters it is staying in it appears to be getting the smallest screens.

 

With TS4 coming out next week in over 4,400 theaters and probably at least twice as many screens I expect another big theater hit next week.

Thinking a 105-107 final total in the DOM market.

 

yeah max $110 M domestic ... under $130 M in china & $23 to $24 M in japan ... will be the final figure for KOTM

[RamblinRed]

Took another big Thursday drop in DOM - down 16%. Rocketman was down 4%.

Looking like it could potentially be sub 8M in DOM this weekend.

Unfortunately it is just running out of steam. Feels like it is going to end up closer to your 385 number Sunny than the 400 number.

 

 

[Sunny Max]

Yep that range ... $385 M (tragic performance in Europe & SA)

[Cookson]

23-24 is a bit low for Japan. It can still leg it to 30m there.

 

Yeah it needed another strong China hold for the weekend. Doesn’t seem like that’ll happen there. We’ll see what happens domestically this weekend.. probably another 15-25 domestically.

 

Between 350-385 unfortunately it’s looking like.