Godzilla: King of the Monsters OS thread

[salvador-232]

4 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

What About Latin Countries ..??

Really haven't looked much into it but at first glance seems to be doing "Meh" to "Bad" 

[Bishop54]

Earlier this week weren't reports saying GKOTM was headed for a $220M global bow? Now it's $175? That's a disaster. I thought when this was announced and we found out that there was going to be more Godzilla in this one that it was going to trounce the 2014 film with ease, now it might to reach that 2014 number...what an unmitigated disaster. So my two childhood obsessions (Godzilla and Green Lantern) are financial disasters in Hollywood...great! Makes me want to hide my face.

[Cookson]

38 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

Earlier this week weren't reports saying GKOTM was headed for a $220M global bow? Now it's $175? That's a disaster. I thought when this was announced and we found out that there was going to be more Godzilla in this one that it was going to trounce the 2014 film with ease, now it might to reach that 2014 number...what an unmitigated disaster. So my two childhood obsessions (Godzilla and Green Lantern) are financial disasters in Hollywood...great! Makes me want to hide my face.

I know we’ve had are discussions over G14 in past years, but I think you would admit this is unexpected. Could G14 have left THAT bad of a impression?

 

also, have you watched the film? A Godzilla fans dream really.

[Bishop54]

16 minutes ago, Cookson said:

I know we’ve had are discussions over G14 in past years, but I think you would admit this is unexpected. Could G14 have left THAT bad of a impression?

 

also, have you watched the film? A Godzilla fans dream really.

Perhaps they waited too long. I always thought this film would open lower ($70Mish) but still leg it out past the 2014 film if they gave us more Godzilla...so I have no clue what went wrong. 

[Cookson]

KotM is killing it in Japan again on Sunday.. even after discount day. Could be looking at 40m+ there!

[John Marston]

35 minutes ago, Cookson said:

KotM is killing it in Japan again on Sunday.. even after discount day. Could be looking at 40m+ there!

 

interesting. Guessing they might actually like the movie 

[Cookson]

8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

interesting. Guessing they might actually like the movie 

Shin Godzilla made 75m in 2016. So with that and this run by KotM, Godzilla is definitely back on the map in Japan. Monsterverse might be done after GvsKong, but Godzilla will be back in its home country again with a slew of movies I’m sure. “World of Godzilla” is what Toho will call it.

Edited June 2, 2019 by Cookson

[kaijukurt]

1 hour ago, Cookson said:

KotM is killing it in Japan again on Sunday.. even after discount day. Could be looking at 40m+ there!

Great to hear!!!

 

Btw are these nos. from World of KJ? 

Edited June 2, 2019 by kaijukurt

[Sunny Max]

6 hours ago, kaijukurt said:

Great to hear!!!

 

Btw are these nos. from World of KJ? 

 

 

3 Days OW Looking To $9 M+ Debut in Japan ... Excellent Start ... 3rd Best Western Film Start Of 2019 Year ..

[Justin4125]

51 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

 

 

3 Days OW Looking To $9 M+ Debut in Japan ... Excellent Start ... 3rd Best Western Film Start Of 2019 Year ..

This really is a fantastic OW for the market (keep in mind Pikachu opened on that super moviegoing holiday and AEG is AEG). This is a very meaningful number to me, if the Japanese are enjoying the film I think that speaks volumes about the film's quality since the GA there is in the aggregate more aware of/closer to the Godzilla franchise compared with US audiences. I firmly believe this makes them better able to understand (and even judge) the film (though of course cultural barriers and their adoration for their own versions of Godzilla may also make them more critical).

 

I had heard (not sure if this is true) that many Japanese Godzilla fans were turned off by G2014, with complaints ranging from the film's tone and story to the design of the monsters (fat Godzilla). I was fully expecting a steep drop from G2014, and that they have so embraced the film (based on online reactions and BO numbers) gives KoTM a much needed win 

 

For the record, WOM over here in Switzerland/Germany/France continues to be strong (especially compared to G2014 and KSI). Sad that it isnt breaking out, but the weak OW numbers seem to have little to do with the film itself and more with GA appetite for such films in general (which I guess is worse....)

Edited June 2, 2019 by Justin4125

[Sunny Max]

54 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

This really is a fantastic OW for the market (keep in mind Pikachu opened on that super moviegoing holiday and AEG is AEG). This is a very meaningful number to me, if the Japanese are enjoying the film I think that speaks volumes about the film's quality since the GA there is in the aggregate more aware of/closer to the Godzilla franchise compared with US audiences. I firmly believe this makes them better able to understand (and even judge) the film (though of course cultural barriers and their adoration for their own versions of Godzilla may also make them more critical).

 

I had heard (not sure if this is true) that many Japanese Godzilla fans were turned off by G2014, with complaints ranging from the film's tone and story to the design of the monsters (fat Godzilla). I was fully expecting a steep drop from G2014, and that they have so embraced the film (based on online reactions and BO numbers) gives KoTM a much needed win 

 

For the record, WOM over here in Switzerland/Germany/France continues to be strong (especially compared to G2014 and KSI). Sad that it isnt breaking out, but the weak OW numbers seem to have little to do with the film itself and more with GA appetite for such films in general (which I guess is worse....)

Europe's Condition is not That Good For KOTM ... France Is Legging Behind By 60% If We Compare It With GD-2014 ... in Russia OW Looking To $2.6 To $2.8 Million Debut ... Very Ordinary Start ... in Italy OD is Less Then 1/3 Of Godzilla ..Only Asian Markets Are Performing Well ..

Edited June 2, 2019 by Sunny Max

[Justin4125]

15 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Europe's Condition is not That Good For KOTM ... France Is Legging Behind By 60% If We Compare It With GD-2014 ... in Russia OW Looking To $2.6 To $2.8 Million Debut ... Very Ordinary Start ... in Italy OD is Less Then 1/3 Of Godzilla ..Only Asian Markets Are Performing Well ..

I know its really too bad. Again, people really seem to like the film (its very highly rated on our local cinema websites and social media from the countries I mentioned has been very positive). Purely anecdotal, but audiences at my theater were very animated (highly unusual for a Swiss audience).

 

For a franchise with plans beyond this film, building goodwill is very important. Despite the lower than expected OWs in Europe, I think this film is helping the franchise to gain momentum. This film was always facing an uphill battle between competition and reception to G2014, but I think we can put stock in those fantastic exits and various audience scores and take some comfort knowing that for audiences, this film has started to rebuild interest and trust

 

By the way, I have yet to find a film with such great exits on PostTrak and yet a B+ Cinemascore. For what its worth, KoTM's exits are in line with, or better than, those of Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman, both of which scored solid As on Cinemascore

Edited June 2, 2019 by Justin4125
Changed content

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

I wasnt talking about BO, Im talking about WOM. People really seem to like the film (its very highly rated on our local cinema websites, and social media from the countries I mentioned has been very positive).

 

My point was simply that I dont think we can blame the low OW numbers on the film itself (at least in those European countries), instead it seems like a general lack of audience appetite for Godzilla/Kaiju movies in general

Hmm Great Point ... 

[TimmyRiggins]

"Disaster", jesus, hyperbole much? Godzilla opened with 196M, this will open probably lower but still in the 160-170M range, it's not a disaster (and yes, I know it's making way more in China, but it's offset by the decrease domestically) at all. It's really puzzling that the film dropped in several significant markets, how can you explain that? I don't think you can except that Godzilla left a bad taste in some people's mouths? And that film was excellent. 

 

I thought the trailers had done the job, they are superb, Deadline's point about us having seen big monsters fighting already with Pacific Rim is DUMB as hell, there's nothing to it but there might be a cap as to how high the Monsterverse can go as we see Godzilla and Kong: SI both between 500 and 600M. 

 

The film is a pure crowdpleaser, it's superior to Zilla 14 and hell, look at the exits in the U.S, 4,5/5 from PostTrak audiences, 75% definite recommend and yet the film drops on Saturday, what the hell? It's awesome that the film is doing great in Japan and it'll probably end up between 500 and 600M in the end but this feels a bit like the Crimes Of Grindelwald drop from Fantastic Beasts, especially domestically. 

 

@Justin4125 Great post, agreed completely. It's a bummer because Edwards' approach worked, it's great, it just frustrated some folks. I'm glad that Godzilla Vs Kong is already shooting, so we got that one for sure and then hopefully more to come. The good thing though that WB also paid for 25% of the budget, this being a co-production with Legendary definitely helps if the Monsterverse has trouble going beyond 600M.

Edited June 2, 2019 by TimmyRiggins

[Mad Max]

 

[Brinatico]

1 minute ago, Mad Max said:

 

No a super opening, but certainly no a bad one either. 

This could make his way to 500M

[Mad Max]

 

[oMeriMombatti]

3 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

No a super opening, but certainly no a bad one either. 

This could make his way to 500M

0% chance of 500M, movie opened with something like 60M if we exclude China's gross, if I had to guess 130M China, 150M OS-C, 115M DOM. 

 

395M final.

[TimmyRiggins]

Wat? Ready Player One opened at 181M and went all the way to 582M. I know Dark Phoenix is coming and Aladdin is competition too, but how in the hell wouldn't it reach 450-500M at the very least?

 

Anyway, Europe disappointing, but China did well, so did Japan, hopefully it can hold well despite opening low in other markets. It's clear though that there is a cap to Kaiju films, even Kong ended at 580M+. I'm thinking maybe that Godzilla Vs Kong could perhaps get people even more excited and push to 600M+. 

[Justin4125]

14 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

0% chance of 500M, movie opened with something like 60M if we exclude China's gross, if I had to guess 130M China, 150M OS-C, 115M DOM. 

 

395M final.

Im actually seeing slightly higher base case. I think competition somewhat compressed OW (plus the crater still left by success of previous titles). Now it has summer play (and some holidays) in many markets. I see 130M China, 167M OS-China (slightly higher multiplier and adding in about ~5M from remaining territories) and 125-130M Dom, for a 422M - 427M finish. Again, with good WOM, a flat Dark Phoenix and a lucky break over Dragon Boat holiday in China, 450M - 475M is in the realm of possibility. With those numbers it might eek into breakeven, and if it builds goodwill for Godzilla v Kong, could still be chalked up as moral victory

 

500M though is a long shot, hard to see a path to it right now, but lets see how it holds up

 

EDIT: Timmy Riggins, check out Ready Player One's crazy multiple in China and solid multiples in US, Japan, UK, France, SK and Australia. KoTM will likely be more frontloaded given its fanbase. However, in general I am with you, this film could leg it out, I just don't think great legs are a reasonable assumption for a base case

Edited June 2, 2019 by Justin4125