Godzilla: King of the Monsters OS thread

[Cookson]

Needs to be at or over 300m WW after this weekend.

 

KotM is at 193 now, but does NOT include China’s weekday which has added an additional 27ish and will probably add another 20m between Saturday and Sunday there(possibly more with it being a holiday and a strong Friday hold). That alone gets it up to 240.

 

Japan we should add another 10m between weekday and this weekend. That’s 250.

 

Here domestically it’ll add a disappointing 15m over the weekend. That adds up to 265.

 

Can all other markets get us just 35m between last week and this weekend to get us to 300m? I would hope so and hopefully see over that... 

Edited June 8, 2019 by Cookson

[Sunny Max]

3 hours ago, Cookson said:

Needs to be at or over 300m WW after this weekend.

 

KotM is at 193 now, but does NOT include China’s weekday which has added an additional 27ish and will probably add another 20m between Saturday and Sunday there(possibly more with it being a holiday and a strong Friday hold). That alone gets it up to 240.

 

Japan we should add another 10m between weekday and this weekend. That’s 250.

 

Here domestically it’ll add a disappointing 15m over the weekend. That adds up to 265.

 

Can all other markets get us just 35m between last week and this weekend to get us to 300m? I would hope so and hopefully see over that... 

Yes $35 M Possible ... lets see 

[TimmyRiggins]

Should be between 350 and 400M right? let's say 110-120 from China, 35-40 from Japan, 110 domestic. 

[Sunny Max]

46 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Should be between 350 and 400M right? let's say 110-120 from China, 35-40 from Japan, 110 domestic. 

China could be $140 M .... Will see ... Yeah Life time in between $350 To $400 M 

[a2k]

21 hours ago, Cookson said:

Needs to be at or over 300m WW after this weekend.

 

KotM is at 193 now, but does NOT include China’s weekday which has added an additional 27ish and will probably add another 20m between Saturday and Sunday there(possibly more with it being a holiday and a strong Friday hold). That alone gets it up to 240.

 

Japan we should add another 10m between weekday and this weekend. That’s 250.

 

Here domestically it’ll add a disappointing 15m over the weekend. That adds up to 265.

 

Can all other markets get us just 35m between last week and this weekend to get us to 300m? I would hope so and hopefully see over that... 

dom will be adding 30 odd over 7 days after 47+ ow, so 35 from those markets is feasible after a 51+ ow.

 

i think our final ww talks are moot (but fun and i get the attachment to the final figure) as it's doing badly dom where returns are the best and over-performing in china where returns are the lowest. dom is not alita low but 100+ down from 200+ is very disappointing especially considering the budget increased.

 

plausible 400 ww scenario:

dom 105*0.55 = 58

ch 145*0.25 = 36

j 35*0.40 = 14 

os-ch-j 115*0.40 = 46

gives 154 theatrical returns approx

 

380 ww with 125 dom and 125 china would have been naturally preferable over a namesake 400 ww.

 

i really wish legs kick in dom like deadpool2 (65% 2nd weekend drop despite inflated mem day sunday) which ended up with 2.55x multiplier.

Edited June 9, 2019 by a2k
misread ur post

[Sunny Max]

7 hours ago, a2k said:

dom will be adding 30 odd over 7 days after 47+ ow, so 35 from those markets is feasible after a 51+ ow.

 

i think our final ww talks are moot (but fun and i get the attachment to the final figure) as it's doing badly dom where returns are the best and over-performing in china where returns are the lowest. dom is not alita low but 100+ down from 200+ is very disappointing especially considering the budget increased.

 

plausible 400 ww scenario:

dom 105*0.55 = 58

ch 145*0.25 = 36

j 35*0.40 = 14 

os-ch-j 115*0.40 = 46

gives 154 theatrical returns approx

 

380 ww with 125 dom and 125 china would have been naturally preferable over a namesake 400 ww.

 

i really wish legs kick in dom like deadpool2 (65% 2nd weekend drop despite inflated mem day sunday) which ended up with 2.55x multiplier.

Hmm perfect calculations .. but $380 M WW would also be fine (considering the wom & BO run) .. Still hope in domestic ... will see 

[Cookson]

Hoping we see the total over 300m WW today.

Edited June 9, 2019 by Cookson

[Sunny Max]

KOTM has crossed $110 M mark in China ...Good ..

Edited June 9, 2019 by Sunny Max

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Hoping we see the total over 300m WW today.

China & Japan turning up for the film .. Yeah hoping for good WW figure ... 

[Cookson]

4 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

China & Japan turning up for the film .. Yeah hoping for good WW figure ... 

Doesn’t seem to be holding in Japan as much as I would have like(around -45) but could be because how insane Aladdin is doing there. Would imagine 30+m should happen still. Would love 35-40 there.

[Sunny Max]

Just now, Cookson said:

Doesn’t seem to be holding in Japan as much as I would have like(around -45) but could be because how insane Aladdin is doing there. Would imagine 30+m should happen still. Would love 35-40 there.

yeah .. japan dropping ... Aladdin doing insane business with best sunday (More then TFA & TLJ) .. but still $30 M+ on cards for KOTM..

[Sunny Max]

 

[Cookson]

292 after second weekend. Needs 108 for 400m WW

 

30m more dom 

30m more china

20m more japan

=80m from main 3

Can it get 28m more from other territories? Not sure....

[MaxAggressor]

 

[Brinatico]

4 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

The problem is on the states. 

Need to improve to go to 400M ww

[RamblinRed]

I think it is likely headed to about $385M

I think you can squeeze 25M more out of DOM, not 30. it's dropping slightly faster than 2014 and 2014 drops would get you to 103M (another 25M).

 

None of the Euro or SA markets are doing well. Not much more coming. It's really on China and Japan to get it close to 400

(Aladdin went from 78 to 67M in Intl Markets, KOTM went from 130 to 47M). 

 

I think Aladdin's performance in both US and Japan are really hurting its legs. aladdin in Japan could turn out to be a killer - that just exploded there this weekend. 

 

 

 

 

[Sunny Max]

5 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I think it is likely headed to about $385M

I think you can squeeze 25M more out of DOM, not 30. it's dropping slightly faster than 2014 and 2014 drops would get you to 103M (another 25M).

 

None of the Euro or SA markets are doing well. Not much more coming. It's really on China and Japan to get it close to 400

(Aladdin went from 78 to 67M in Intl Markets, KOTM went from 130 to 47M). 

 

I think Aladdin's performance in both US and Japan are really hurting its legs. aladdin in Japan could turn out to be a killer - that just exploded there this weekend. 

 

 

 

 

Aladdin really holding well in almost all countries .. not only in japan & domestic market .. Europe/latin performing on huge level

 

KOTM is likely to headed $375 M+ WW 

 

Aladdin went from 78 to 67 .. & KOTM went from 130 to 47 .. what that mean ?? i didnt understand 

[Claudio]

2 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Aladdin went from 78 to 67 .. & KOTM went from 130 to 47 .. what that mean ?? i didnt understand 

He means that Aladdin made $78M OS last weekend and yet still making $67M this weekend while KotM who made $130M OS last weekend only making $47M this weekend.

[Sunny Max]

Just now, Claudio said:

He means that Aladdin made $78M OS last weekend and yet still making $67M this weekend while KotM who made $130M OS last weekend only making $47M this weekend.

Ohhh .. ok  thnnxx A Lot ..   

[Justin4125]

1 hour ago, Claudio said:

He means that Aladdin made $78M OS last weekend and yet still making $67M this weekend while KotM who made $130M OS last weekend only making $47M this weekend.

I mean technically Aladdin went from 78M to 54M (13.6M from new territories including Japan), but I understand your point.

 

But no one here was ever comparing KoTM to Aladdin. They are categorically two different kind of films, with KoTM skewing away from families and more fan driven, making it naturally more frontloaded  (though of course in this case its a bit excessively frontloaded). KoTM also made a bigger percentage of its revenue in fast-burn markets like China and regions in SE asia, so again, comparing 2nd weekend drops between Aladdin and KoTM is mostly apples to oranges

 

Also, about KoTM dropping faster than G14, G14's second weekend was a holiday. no doubt it would have fallen harder otherwise. So I would say KoTM may hold a bit better from here than G14 did (G14 dropped 66.8% 2nd weekend and 61.2% third weekend). Still, I dont think it has much more than 25M in the tank domestically. Internatioanlly, this 2nd weekend drop wasnt that bad, on par with most day-to-date release superhero flicks like Shazam, CM and AEG (or FotF) which are much better comparisons given the naturally frontloaded nature of these films).

 

Still, even if Godzilla drops hard from here on out, it should be able to reach 375M worldwide (thats a miserable 1.6x from its second weekend dom and an equally miserable 1.2x of its intl second weekend). With just a very slight overperformance from my perhaps overly conservative estimates, that means 400M is still very much in play, a number that really will go a long way towards saving face. This is not a bomb, its just a bit of a disappointment. 

 

For those who watched the deadline interview, they might push GvK back a bit. The tone of Emmerich's voice, however, was far from that of someone who has given up hope in the Monsterverse. As I said before, that this film can "disappoint" with close to 400M worldwide shows there is still a lot of potential in the franchise. Besides, between 1) a shitty release date (competition) 2) shitty ER 3) many people turned off from the previous film and 4) critic reviews, KoTM had the cards stacked against it. I have faith in GvK, and as long as that one merely performs well (~575M - 600M WW) you can count on these films continuing

Edited June 9, 2019 by Justin4125