Godzilla: King of the Monsters OS thread

[Carlangonz]

5 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Wat? Ready Player One opened at 181M and went all the way to 582M.

Yeah but that one had crazy wom in China which helped it to leg past $200M there. Won't be the case for this one.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Wat? Ready Player One opened at 181M and went all the way to 582M. I know Dark Phoenix is coming and Aladdin is competition too, but how in the hell wouldn't it reach 450-500M at the very least?

 

Anyway, Europe disappointing, but China did well, so did Japan, hopefully it can hold well despite opening low in other markets. It's clear though that there is a cap to Kaiju films, even Kong ended at 580M+. I'm thinking maybe that Godzilla Vs Kong could perhaps get people even more excited and push to 600M+. 

Ready Player One had superb legs in China to $218M. KOTM is making $150M max in China and that's being generous.

 

I'm guessing $450M WW finish which is pretty disappointing no way to spin it.

 

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Wat? Ready Player One opened at 181M and went all the way to 582M. I know Dark Phoenix is coming and Aladdin is competition too, but how in the hell wouldn't it reach 450-500M at the very least?

 

Anyway, Europe disappointing, but China did well, so did Japan, hopefully it can hold well despite opening low in other markets. It's clear though that there is a cap to Kaiju films, even Kong ended at 580M+. I'm thinking maybe that Godzilla Vs Kong could perhaps get people even more excited and push to 600M+. 

Generally European markets are the ones with long legs, like Germany, France, Italy etc... (but still nothing like Japan)

 

The fact that it's disappointed in those markets automatically reduces its legs quite a lot. 

 

iirc RPO did quite well in Europe thanks to Spielberg, therefore drawing that conclusion to be invalid.

 

Also Japan saw a much larger drop on Sunday than most other movies. Japan's Sundays are usually flat or bigger from Saturday, though with the National Discount Day on Saturday, this skews things attendance wise. But comparatively, KOTM dropped about 35% on Sunday whereas AEG dropped 20%. Pika (which skews quite young) dropped ~27% in attendance, which makes sense since family movies generally see a much bigger increase on discount days. 

 

It's clear KOTM was front loaded, whether there's WOM at all to counteract is yet to be seen.

[Brinatico]

14 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

0% chance of 500M, movie opened with something like 60M if we exclude China's gross, if I had to guess 130M China, 150M OS-C, 115M DOM. 

 

395M final.

With actuals numbers tomorrow is going to pass 180M opening. There is some markets out there to open yet. Lest say a conservative 2.5x because is summer. $450M at least 

[kaijukurt]

3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I'm guessing $450M WW finish which is pretty disappointing no way to spin it.

 

 

Ill take disappoint over bomb any day. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

With actuals numbers tomorrow is going to pass 180M opening. There is some markets out there to open yet. Lest say a conservative 2.5x because is summer. $450M at least 

It doesn't work like that. It will definitely not have 2.5x legs in China for example.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 minutes ago, kaijukurt said:

 

Ill take disappoint over bomb any day. 

Yeah not a bomb thankfully well even if it was Godzilla vs Kong is already on its way regardless. 

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

There is some markets out there to open yet.

"some markets" == basically nothing...

 

Kuwait	4 June 2019
Saudi Arabia	5 June 2019
Poland	14 June 2019
Spain	21 June 2019

 

Kuwait + Saudi + Poland < $1m

 

Spain might do a bit better, though given how rest of Western Europe has gone...

[Blaze Heatnix]

This movie has made 130 million overseas, but more than half of that comes from China/Japan. Not good.

 

Nexr week will see ugly drops.

[ZeeSoh]

23 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Wat? Ready Player One opened at 181M and went all the way to 582M. I know Dark Phoenix is coming and Aladdin is competition too, but how in the hell wouldn't it reach 450-500M at the very least?

 

Anyway, Europe disappointing, but China did well, so did Japan, hopefully it can hold well despite opening low in other markets. It's clear though that there is a cap to Kaiju films, even Kong ended at 580M+. I'm thinking maybe that Godzilla Vs Kong could perhaps get people even more excited and push to 600M+. 

Its opened lower than Detective Pikachu domestically and OS-Ch. The only territories it opened higher than DP was China and Japan. But DP had good legs in china which godzilla wont due to competition. DP is going to make at max 430-440. I dont see how Godzilla will manage much more than that despite opening lower. 

 

As for Ready Player One, it had good legs in China and a huge total there which Godzilla wont. 450 can happen but it wont be touching 500 for sure. 

Edited June 2, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[Justin4125]

14 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Ready Player One had superb legs in China to $218M. KOTM is making $150M max in China and that's being generous.

 

I'm guessing $450M WW finish which is pretty disappointing no way to spin it.

 

While disappointing, I think $450M would be a moral victory at this point, especially if the film builds some goodwill. At the very least, $450M will make any losses minimal (potential breakeven further down the road) and wont jeopardize the MonsterVerse, sub $400M and we have a bigger problem

[Cookson]

Hopefully it can leg it out for a total between 400-450

 

its got another 50m in China 

Like 60-70 domestic(hopefully legs are good to make more)

 

Thats 290-310 right there.  

 

Can it get another 90-110 for at least 400? I think so... legs in Japan might get it another 30 so that cuts it drastically to all other markets needing 60-80. I think we can get that but will need some leg help.

[TimmyRiggins]

Good points all around. Of course it's going to be frontloaded to an extent, but I'm guessing the great exits in the US might extend to some overseas markets. Then again, WB is footing only 25% of the bill, so that is certainly helping giving us this Monsterverse with Legendary. I just hope it at least gets to 400M + and Godzilla Vs Kong blows up. But once again, another sequel in a franchise that decreases from the first or previous entry, it's happened quite a lot, and really, I'm thinking only Disney are immune to this (although TLJ decreased a lot, as expected)? 

 

The film is superior to Godzilla, and the logical part of me is puzzled that it would decrease, I guess the added spectacle is not enough, who the fuck knows what audiences want really? Lots of folks complain about Godzilla not showing him enough, not having enough spectacle, then KOTM delivers on this, and significant decrease. Um. 

[Brinatico]

1 hour ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

It doesn't work like that. It will definitely not have 2.5x legs in China for example.

Dont need the China 2.5 to complete the issue. 

And by the way how work accord you

[keysersoze123]

@a2k did extrapolate in DOM. China is looking at 1.8x considering 3 openers next thursday will eat away lots of screens. its looking at 130m in China. Domestic is looking bad. its daily trend is not good and Zilla movies are anyway frontloaded. 120m domestic look likely. Japan could do 35m. Minus those markets lts looking at another 120m at best. So around $400m finish WW.

 

 

[RamblinRed]

 I'm not sure I see this getting to 400M and certainly not 450.

 

it will be gone from the US/Canada DOM market in probably 4 weeks. Every Godzilla movie in the US has suffered 60%+ 2nd weekend drops, this will be no different and with alot of movies coming out over the next month Theater owners are likely to dump it relatively quickly. I think 105M is the ceiling in the DOM market. (also its 49M DOM will go down with actuals tomorrow - WB's Sunday number is completely unrealistic).

 

it performed poorly in both European and South American Markets. I don't see good legs there either.  OS - China and Japan were basically about 50M and if you can't finish #1 in a market on opening weekend you are going to run into issues keeping your screens long term.

It will largely be up to China and Japan to provide what they can. 

 

I'm not convinced the WOM is as strong as people think. On most rating sites the ratings have declined as the weekend went on. I think the PostTrak in the DOM captured the hardcore fans being really happy with the film, but Cinemascore may have captured the GA better.

 

The biggest thing to me is I think there is a ceiling to the monster movies. i think there is a hardcore fanbase that will go to them, and I think that fanbase is largely very happy with Godzilla, but I think in some ways what makes that hardcore base happy turns off the GA. 

 

I think at most it is looking at 220 WW minus China and Japan. Can China and Japan get 180-190 to get it over 400?

 

[Sunny Max]

14 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

 I'm not sure I see this getting to 400M and certainly not 450.

 

it will be gone from the US/Canada DOM market in probably 4 weeks. Every Godzilla movie in the US has suffered 60%+ 2nd weekend drops, this will be no different and with alot of movies coming out over the next month Theater owners are likely to dump it relatively quickly. I think 105M is the ceiling in the DOM market. (also its 49M DOM will go down with actuals tomorrow - WB's Sunday number is completely unrealistic).

 

it performed poorly in both European and South American Markets. I don't see good legs there either.  OS - China and Japan were basically about 50M and if you can't finish #1 in a market on opening weekend you are going to run into issues keeping your screens long term.

It will largely be up to China and Japan to provide what they can. 

 

I'm not convinced the WOM is as strong as people think. On most rating sites the ratings have declined as the weekend went on. I think the PostTrak in the DOM captured the hardcore fans being really happy with the film, but Cinemascore may have captured the GA better.

 

The biggest thing to me is I think there is a ceiling to the monster movies. i think there is a hardcore fanbase that will go to them, and I think that fanbase is largely very happy with Godzilla, but I think in some ways what makes that hardcore base happy turns off the GA. 

 

I think at most it is looking at 220 WW minus China and Japan. Can China and Japan get 180-190 to get it over 400?

 

$140 M To $150 M in China .... & $35 M + in Japan ...  Possible ..

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I just saw the trades calling KOTM WW opening "exceptional", nice spin.

 

Even 400m WW is not safe with bad legs coming in all over the world. dunno if it even breaks evem. It's literally a flop.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

26 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

 I'm not sure I see this getting to 400M and certainly not 450.

 

it will be gone from the US/Canada DOM market in probably 4 weeks. Every Godzilla movie in the US has suffered 60%+ 2nd weekend drops, this will be no different and with alot of movies coming out over the next month Theater owners are likely to dump it relatively quickly. I think 105M is the ceiling in the DOM market. (also its 49M DOM will go down with actuals tomorrow - WB's Sunday number is completely unrealistic).

 

it performed poorly in both European and South American Markets. I don't see good legs there either.  OS - China and Japan were basically about 50M and if you can't finish #1 in a market on opening weekend you are going to run into issues keeping your screens long term.

It will largely be up to China and Japan to provide what they can. 

 

I'm not convinced the WOM is as strong as people think. On most rating sites the ratings have declined as the weekend went on. I think the PostTrak in the DOM captured the hardcore fans being really happy with the film, but Cinemascore may have captured the GA better.

 

The biggest thing to me is I think there is a ceiling to the monster movies. i think there is a hardcore fanbase that will go to them, and I think that fanbase is largely very happy with Godzilla, but I think in some ways what makes that hardcore base happy turns off the GA. 

 

I think at most it is looking at 220 WW minus China and Japan. Can China and Japan get 180-190 to get it over 400?

 

Yes even 400m looks hard.

 

Pika which has bigger openings with good legs struggles to 430m.

[Sunny Max]

16 hours ago, Stewart said:

"some markets" == basically nothing...

 

Kuwait	4 June 2019
Saudi Arabia	5 June 2019
Poland	14 June 2019
Spain	21 June 2019

 

Kuwait + Saudi + Poland < $1m

 

Spain might do a bit better, though given how rest of Western Europe has gone...

Even No Chance In Spain ... KOTM Releasing Along With Toy Story 4 ...