Weekend Thread: Rampage 34.5M, AQP 32.6M, ToD 19M, RPO 11.2M, Blockers 10.2M

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Disney has killed Dwayne.

And will resurrect him (with the help of everyone's new favorite leading lady Emily Blunt) with JUNGLE CRUISE!

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Yeah, RPO's gonna likely make over 600mww. It's doing very well. 

From WB POV, Rampage was always going to be second banana (pun intended) to RPO but I think that it was just bad timing with AQP and having to move the film up a week. Still the budget isn't crazy so it'll likely break even or eek a small profit. 

 

 

[a2k]

Quote

Dwayne Johnson’s action-fantasy “Rampage” is heading for downbeat North American opening weekend of about $27 million to $32 million at 3,950 locations, early estimates showed Friday.

 

That’s well below forecasts and signals that Paramount’s second weekend of John Krasinski’s “A Quiet Place” should repeat as the box office winner with about $34 million at 3,508 sites. Universal-Blumhouse’s debut of “Truth or Dare” will come in above expectations in third with about $18 million at 3,029 venues.

http://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/box-office-rampage-a-quiet-place-1202752940/

 

Wide range for Rampage but like with other sources it indicates a lower opening than tracking suggested.

[YM!]

IW pushing it back a week and the unexpected breakouts of RPO and AQP hurt it.

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

And will resurrect him (with the help of everyone's new favorite leading lady Emily Blunt) with JUNGLE CRUISE!

If Johnson could survive Baywatch which was less well received then he can shrug off Rampage. 

 

I suspect he'll film a post credit scene for Shazam as Black Adam, that's pretty much a given at this point.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

IW pushing it back a week and the unexpected breakouts of RPO and AQP hurt it.

AQP I can understand, but RPO wasn't unexpected, most people thought it could do well, only the vocal minority thought it would flop.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

IW pushing it back a week and the unexpected breakouts of RPO and AQP hurt it.

I wouldn't call RPO a breakout...

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

AQP I can understand, but RPO wasn't unexpected, most people thought it could do well, only the vocal minority thought it would flop.

 

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

I wouldn't call RPO a breakout...

Here I’d agrue it was especially WW.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

 

Here I’d agrue it was especially WW.

what's RPO going to end on?

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

If Johnson could survive Baywatch which was less well received then he can shrug off Rampage. 

 

I suspect he'll film a post credit scene for Shazam as Black Adam, that's pretty much a given at this point.

And Rampage has a shot at 150m in China, so that's something. Could still do 400 ww and don't think it's going below 350m : 135 China + 65 Dom + 150 OS-China is around the least it will do and that's almost 3x it's prod budget (albeit with China being a bigger % and dom smaller % than desired).

Edited April 13, 2018 by a2knet

[Jonwo]

Just now, a2knet said:

And Rampage has a shot at 150m in China, so that's something. Could still do 400 ww and don't think it's going below 350m : 135 China + 65 Dom + 150 OS-China is around the least it will do and that's almost 3x it's prod budget.

Luckily for WB/New Line, the budget is $115-120m so it'll break even at the very least, I don't expect a sequel but enough for Johnson and Peyton to team up on another project (potentially Black Adam?)

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

what's RPO going to end on?

At least,

135 dom

200 China

185 CurrentOS-China

12.5 Germany

27.5 Japan

= 560 ww

But I expect 580-590.

[MCKillswitch123]

17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

There is the direct impact of people that do not go in theater often waiting for it that could exist I imagine.

 

And other obvious direct impact was having to move the release around a bit last minute and make it quite close to RPO.

 

A less obvious impact, is I would imagine harder to get ads partnership, to have your movie on cereal box, subway menu and cars ads, Avengers must be getting all the blockbuster movie ads space on the type of product that tend to do them.

 

Looking at rampage promos:

https://www.ispot.tv/search?term=Rampage

 

Not many products deal it seem.

https://www.ispot.tv/search?term=Infinity war&qtype=full

 

Avengers has Geico, Nerf, even a house mortgage service is promoting Avengers....

https://heroichollywood.com/avengers-infinity-war-promotional-marvel/

 

Coca-Cola, Infinity cars, Quicken Loans, Ziploc, Yoplait, Duracell, etc.....

 

Rampage has Ford but that was from before the shooting started.

Infinity War is getting promotion on Star Wars scale. Even here in Portugal, one of the biggest banks in Europe - Santander Totta - is promoting IW in its local spots. Disney is REALLY going all out for it, and I think - if not know - that it's pretty much overshadowing anything remotely blockbustery within its range of release (except AQP, but that's not the same demographic).

[MovieMan89]

23 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

It's still a success though.

Need to know the official budget. Too many conflicting reports. If it’s $175m or higher it’s in a similar  boat as Justice League. Except at least that grossed its budget DOM. 

[JB33]

Seeing TRUTH OR DARE on short notice tonight, and seeing RAMPAGE tomorrow night with my movie group. There's my contribution for the weekend of April 13-15.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Need to know the official budget. Too many conflicting reports. If it’s $175m or higher it’s in a similar  boat as Justice League. Except at least that grossed its budget DOM. 

JL's prod budget was 250-300 so 656 ww was 2.2-2.6x.

RPO is looking at 560-590 imo with a 175 prod budget, so 3.2-3.4x.

[Maxmoser3]

A Quiet Place will probably more likely do closer to $35 million it’s second weekend.

 

Then Rampage will probably drop $25-$27 million in its opening weekend, so hopefully overseas helps out. 

 

Truth Or Dare may be like The Bye Bye Man last year than Happy Death Day. 

[Jonwo]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Need to know the official budget. Too many conflicting reports. If it’s $175m or higher it’s in a similar  boat as Justice League. Except at least that grossed its budget DOM. 

Spielberg's a director that keeps his budgets in check, It's probably $175m maximum because of the VFX. 

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, Thematrixfilm said:

Here is what I got.. (I will not include another hyphen with totals after next Thursday added too, because of potential variances in the weekend)

(new) - Rampage - 27.11 - 29.51

(-37%) - Quiet - 31.81 - 98.85

(new) - Truth - 16.68 - 17.43

(-44%) - Ready - 13.84 - 117.24

(-48%) - Blockers - 10.77 - 37.40

(+37%) - Isle/Dogs- 6.23 - 19.68

(-31%) - Imagine - 5.42 - 76.57

(-38%) - Panther - 5.40 - 673.86

(-38%) - Chappa - 3.55 - 11.53

(-47%) - Sherlock - 2.90 - 37.72

(-52%) - Uprising - 2.30 - 58.45

(-46%) - Miracle - 2.15 - 6.98

(new) - Sgt. Stubby - 1.78 - 1.83

(-55%) - Wrinkle/Time - 1.50 - 92.60

(new) - Beirut - 1.32 - 1.69

(-60%) - Love - 1.12 - 39.39

(-71%) - Tomb - 0.57 - 56.33

(-54%) - Peter - 0.45 - 113.93

(-64%) - Game - 0.38 - 67.92

(-87%) - GND2 - 0.14 - 5.45

(-17%) - Annihilation - 0.13 - 32.71

The 21 films listed above have approximately 39,000 combined screens.

Next weekend sees I Feel Pretty, Traffik, and Super Troopers 2. 

I am estimating them to be...

I Feel Pretty (3,300), Traffik (1,500), ST2 (2,200) which would be approximately 7k in theater counts.  

The theater count estimate below shows approximately 5k screens leaving for incoming projected 7k screens.... 41k combined.

(new) - 3,300 - I Feel Pretty

(n.c.) - 3,589 - A Quiet Place

(n.c.) - 4,101 - Rampage

(n.c.) - 3,029 - Truth or Dare

(new) - 2,200 - Super Troopers

(new) - 1,500 - Traffik

(n.c.) - 1,939 - Isle of Dogs

(n.c.) - 755 - Beirut

(n.c.) - 1,685 - Sgt. Stubby    

(-300) - 3,361 - Ready

(-150) - 3,268 - Blockers

(-300) - 1,880 - Panther

(-450) - 2,113 - Imagine

(-300) - 1,345 - Chappaq

(-600) - 1,516 - Sherlock

(-450) - 1,257 - Miracle

(-600) - 937 - Uprising

(-450) - 887 - Acrimony

(-300) - 812 - Wrinkle

(-300) - 589 - Simon

(-150) - 369 - Peter

(-250) - 252 - Tomb

(-150) - 206 - Game

(-100) - 93 - GND3

(-50) - 69 - Annihilation

 

If the above ^ combined screen total is around 40k from these 24 films, it might be looking at a 10% reduction or more next week for 36k from the same 24 films + Infinity War.  That means, 40,000 this week + 4,400 next week = 44,400.  to get 36,000, there would be a  -8,400 or more from a single movie.  maybe just double it?  If Infinity War does 4300-4500 screens, then double gives -8600 and -9000.  of course assuming next weekend sees a net increase in theater location counts

Edited April 13, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Maxmoser3]