Venom | 5 OCTOBER 2018 | Sony | Tom Hardy is Venom. Social Media reactions coming in

[Premium George]

16 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

It isn't perfectly correlated but trailer views are probably the best stat we amateurs can use so far from release. Or to put it another way: it could be dangerous to make a <$100M DOM club for a film with so many views.

yes, a much stronger correlation than peaople here think.

http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/owptayoutuberatios.html

Different type of movies have different type of behavior but among similar movies, range seems to be small.

[Captain Craig]

9 minutes ago, Firepower said:

R-rated movie about Spider Man villain with much lower budget grosses more than PG-13 MCU Spider-Man movie with Tony Stark in it. I think it would be embarassing for them and wonderful for Sony.

I doubt that happens. I still don't see the embarrassment angle though.

Venom is a character that can go to greater extremes.

There would never be an R rated Spider-man film anyway.

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, Captain Craig said:

Based on what? Explain why you think this. 

Particularly Since Feige and Marvel Studios are keeping their distance from this film.

This is a SONY film,Marvel Studios is not involved.

And I think predicting this will make more then Spiderman:Homecoming is really, really, really premature.

[dudalb]

And Interent Buzz is pretty unreliable as a predictor of box office. Remember "Snakes On A Plane"?

[Firepower]

Just now, dudalb said:

Remember "Snakes On A Plane"?

Maybe you'll also recall "internet hype" of some 90s movies?

[Captain Craig]

Just now, dudalb said:

And Interent Buzz is pretty unreliable as a predictor of box office. Remember "Snakes On A Plane"?

Ah, someone else who remembers. 

I was teased/mocked for that reference earlier in the thread.

[Firepower]

10 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:

I was teased/mocked for that reference earlier in the thread.

Because it's not Snakes on Plane situation, but more like Suicide Squad.

 

Also, my belief that this movie will explode at BO is based not only on internet hype, but also on average Joe's awareness of the character and interest in the movie, which is very big.

Edited August 6, 2018 by Firepower

[MrGlass2]

25 minutes ago, dudalb said:

And Interent Buzz is pretty unreliable as a predictor of box office. Remember "Snakes On A Plane"?

Compared to what?

 

Remember It?

Remember Thor: Ragnarok?

Remember Beauty and the Beast?

Remember all the movies with zero Internet buzz that flopped?

[AndyK]

5 hours ago, Premium George said:

yes, a much stronger correlation than peaople here think.

http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/owptayoutuberatios.html

Different type of movies have different type of behavior but among similar movies, range seems to be small.

Nope, Thor Rag has double the trailer views of BP but did less than half the BO.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Nope, Thor Rag has double the trailer views of BP but did less than half the BO.

You think the correlation coefficient between trailer views and OW box office is 0 ?

[AndyK]

9 hours ago, Barnack said:

You think the correlation coefficient between trailer views and OW box office is 0 ?

There is no correlation between YT trailer views and OW box office.

[AJG]

10 hours ago, Barnack said:

You think the correlation coefficient between trailer views and OW box office is 0 ?

 

Yep. 40m views.

 

 

 

Xmen Apoc was also Fox’s biggest trailer ever (I think it still is)

[dxmatrixdt]

I wonder about the lowest grossing films with the most YT views.

also, if view counts affect where the movie will be released and have the most screenings?

Edited August 7, 2018 by dmatrixfilmdx

[MrGlass2]

14 minutes ago, AJG said:

Yep. 40m views.

You (and a few others) need to look up the definition of "correlation" before joining this discussion.

[AndyK]

4 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

You (and a few others) need to look up the definition of "correlation" before joining this discussion.

correlation

ˌkɒrəˈleɪʃ(ə)n/

noun

 

1. a mutual relationship or connection between two or more things.

[catlover]

1 hour ago, AndyK said:

correlation

ˌkɒrəˈleɪʃ(ə)n/

noun

 

1. a mutual relationship or connection between two or more things.

As a mathematician I feel like I need to step in. Especially because someone mentioned correlation coefficient, and was kinda misinterpreted.

 

Correlation in math is difined by the coefficient, a number between -1 and 1. If it's 0, that means it's completely random. The further from 0 the stronger its correlation. We know that many movies whose trailers had very high number of views, also had very high OW, and the opposite, low number of views, low OW. We also know there are exceptions and outliers, and the relation is not exactly linear. That means, the coefficient is not 1 or -1, but it's NOT 0 as well. In other words, we CANNOT say that there is no correlation.

 

Maybe if someone has enough time to construct a statistical model we can have stronger conclution. But from I've seen, there IS some kind of correlation between trailer views and OW. Maybe not strong, but enough to warrant a discussion whether a movie will open big when it has relatively high trailer views.

[AndyK]

1 hour ago, catlover said:

As a mathematician I feel like I need to step in. Especially because someone mentioned correlation coefficient, and was kinda misinterpreted.

 

Correlation in math is difined by the coefficient, a number between -1 and 1. If it's 0, that means it's completely random. The further from 0 the stronger its correlation. We know that many movies whose trailers had very high number of views, also had very high OW, and the opposite, low number of views, low OW. We also know there are exceptions and outliers, and the relation is not exactly linear. That means, the coefficient is not 1 or -1, but it's NOT 0 as well. In other words, we CANNOT say that there is no correlation.

 

Maybe if someone has enough time to construct a statistical model we can have stronger conclution. But from I've seen, there IS some kind of correlation between trailer views and OW. Maybe not strong, but enough to warrant a discussion whether a movie will open big when it has relatively high trailer views.

Let me refine what I said....

 

There is no "usable" correlation between YT trailer views and BO receipts.

 

The variation is so wide, it could just as easily be described as "Random". 

[Firepower]

13 hours ago, AndyK said:

Nope, Thor Rag has double the trailer views of BP but did less than half the BO.

Should I remind you that reasons why BP did so much, especially in US, have nothing to do with it?

Edited August 7, 2018 by Firepower

[AndyK]

31 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Should I remind you that reasons why BP did so much, especially in US, have nothing to do with it?

Every reason is a reason why YT views are unreliable.

[expensiveho]

Yes, let's use a huge breakout (3rd biggest DOM at that) to say there's not a pattern. This is so smart. This also has never been used to mock another huge hits (It, T:R), right?