Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

[baumer]

8 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Based on what?

 

The Sunday number is very optimistic.  Some of the Marvel sequels have declined 33-36% on their second Sunday.  This is going for a 27% drop.  Might be too optimistic.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, eddyxx said:

About to see this for 3rd time in Imax. This time in a different theater. There's only like 10 seats left not sold!

 

Gonna see it in IMAX for the first time tomorrow. 

[baumer]

7 hours ago, GraceRandolph said:

I appreciate your analysis but the realistic numbers will be.

 

900 OS

300 China

600 US

 

total: 1,8. It might go a bit higher or lower but under no circumstances will it reach 2 billion. Don’t set yourself up for disappointment.  Also don’t forget that DeadPool and Solo are coming to cut it’s legs off 

 

It's going to crush 300 in China and will more than likely make a billion internationally. It's on pace to open higher than F7 and that finished with almost 400 million.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Only if audience reception is great. Otherwise it's going below TLJ on both fronts. 

 

Yeah, I’m not confident in the “trilogy ending” boost this time around. Needs stronger audience reception than TLJ if they want 650 or more. 

[WrathOfHan]

Taking a look on Letterboxd, Life of the Party actually has decent reactions  Granted, none of them are glowing, but it won't suffer the same fate critically as The Boss or Tammy because there's nothing really obnoxious about the film.

[baumer]

6 hours ago, REC said:

Your numbers are just insane, as is anyone else who claims this will make sub-1b minus China OS.

 

It's already done 713m OS, without China, after 12 days of release.  It's going way past your 900m, and its going past 1b.  It will keep going.  And that's not even counting China, where 4-500m is easily in play.  You are massively low balling it's OS gross.  As well as the Dom gross.

 

I really wonder if you guys are paying attention to what's happening with this movie.

 

And your zero-sum game when it comes to entertainment consumption, that's just not how this works.  Others have tried to point that out to you.  If there are 2 or 3 must-see movies going on at the same time, believe it or not people will go see those 2 or 3 movies.  If something doesn't have legs it's because of it's own merits.

 

The same thing can be said for video games, streaming video, or any general entertainment product.

 

Also the idea that Solo will be cutting off anyone's legs (under any circumstances) is ludicrous.  Solo has to prove its own worth in the market, we'll see what kind of movie it ends up being.  There are reasons to think it might do well.  There are also reasons to believe it will be the lowest grossing SW movie ever.

 

I agree with everything you said prior to the Solo stuff.  Solo won't hurt it internationally, but domestically, SW is a monster.  If you think a film that is projected to open to 170 million over the 4 days isn't going to affect IW, then you are mistaken.

[Daxtreme]

17 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

The Sunday number is very optimistic.  Some of the Marvel sequels have declined 33-36% on their second Sunday.  This is going for a 27% drop.  Might be too optimistic.

 

Maybe Sunday will compensate for the poor Friday and Saturday jumps?

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Maybe Sunday will compensate for the poor Friday and Saturday jumps?

 

I don't see how.  Back to school and work tomorrow.

[Ocho]

Deadline states the industry estimate for IW is a million higher than Disney's estimate for the weekend.

 

"Industry believes Infinity War is higher than what Disney is reporting at $113.5M."

[Lordmandeep]

SW brand is getting rather negative outside of Developed Markets

 

TLJ flat out flopped in India for example. 

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Truth be told there were special reasons for these two to do , proportionally, better in the u.s, and in black panther’s case it did amazingly well overseas

Not sure what could be the special reason for Wonder Woman (story set in Europe, not many Americans in it, etc...) outside the fact that American comic book were specially popular in Anglo-Saxon countries.

 

SH movies that have built their oversea audience with movies do very well yes.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Ocho said:

Deadline states the industry estimate for IW is a million higher than Disney's estimate for the weekend.

 

"Industry believes Infinity War is higher than what Disney is reporting at $113.5M."

 

They are speculating.  It's not even 8pm EST.  

[Jonwo]

41 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Taking a look on Letterboxd, Life of the Party actually has decent reactions  Granted, none of them are glowing, but it won't suffer the same fate critically as The Boss or Tammy because there's nothing really obnoxious about the film.

It's surprising that both McCarthy and Schumer have made PG-13 comedies, I wonder if Life of the Party might benefit from being lower rated compared to McCarthy's other films? 

[KP1025]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

SW brand is getting rather negative outside of Developed Markets

 

TLJ flat out flopped in India for example. 

 Developed markets will have to pick up the slack if Episode 9 wants to increase from TLJ OS. At this point, not even $20 million in China is guaranteed. 

[redfirebird2008]

18 minutes ago, Ocho said:

Deadline states the industry estimate for IW is a million higher than Disney's estimate for the weekend.

 

"Industry believes Infinity War is higher than what Disney is reporting at $113.5M."

 

That comment is from 9:30 in the morning. 

[WrathOfHan]

17 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

SW brand is getting rather negative outside of Developed Markets

 

TLJ flat out flopped in India for example. 

I look forward to midterms when you will latch onto something that isn't TLJ  

[NoLegMan]

midterms I'm not ready for that yet.

[Ocho]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That comment is from 9:30 in the morning. 

So was Disney's estimate........

[DAR]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I look forward to midterms when you will latch onto something that isn't TLJ  

Yeah Solo is coming up

[a2k]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That comment is from 9:30 in the morning. 

yeah, considering Fri and Sat (Rth 46.5, Official estimates 46.6...pretty much exact) won't change, Sun has to do all the lifting. 113.5 means just a 23.8% Sun drop, even better than BP which was a Sunday monster.