AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[Quigley]

39 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

I didnt understand this part, including Russia Mon-Thu gross?

In Russia, the film opened last Monday. For overseas weekend figures, it is common practice for studios to report all the earnings a film has made up to its first Sunday as part of the opening weekend figure. Therefore, although Russia's traditional weekend lasts 4 days (Thu-Sun), the weekend figure that will be reported tomorrow will include all 7 days from Monday to Sunday.

[Nakamura]

2 minutes ago, Quigley said:

In Russia, the film opened last Monday. For overseas weekend figures, it is common practice for studios to report all the earnings a film has made up to its first Sunday as part of the opening weekend figure. Therefore, although Russia's traditional weekend lasts 4 days (Thu-Sun), the weekend figure that will be reported tomorrow will include all 7 days from Monday to Sunday.

Can we have 1785 + 150 (dom)+ 65 (china) + 205 (os-china) = 2.205b ? 

[Nakamura]

The total OS- China of IW at the end is $1.010B

Do you guys think EG can improve 35% from it? To become $1.363B at the end?

Any prediction? 

[fabiopazzo2]

1.850B Worldwide

850M Dom

 

or

 

1.900B Worldwide

900M DoM

 

What do you think?? 

Edited May 4, 2019 by fabiopazzo2

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

1.850B Worldwide

850M Dom

 

What do you think?? 

That’s 1.25 or less OS-C, some pretty bad legs.   

 

And really bad legs DOM, CW level 2nd weekend multi (with a 148 wknd).  

 

If you want a more realistic pessimistic I’d add 30M or so to each (this would baaaaarely miss Avatar ).

[Fake]

EG should be exactly at 2.2B acter the weekend. DOM should be 620M while OS should be 1.58B (Another 30M from China and 150M from the rest of the markets).

[fabiopazzo2]

1850-1900B will never be disappointing, a fucking monster. 

[Omni]

21 hours ago, Omni said:

Main reason for projecting a sub-2.2B total on Sunday is past evidence for highly hyped movies: it looks like most of the times something goes wrong (ex. low Friday rise)

How I hate to be always right

[Joyous Legion]

11 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

1850-1900B will never be disappointing

Just give inflation 20 years to work it’s magic 😛 

[Nakamura]

The total OS-China of EG need to be higher 35% than IW's.

Do you think it is possible? 

[john2000]

21 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

1850-1900B will never be disappointing, a fucking monster. 

i would say 1.9-2 bill for overseas

[Ledmonkey96]

7 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

The total OS-China of EG need to be higher 35% than IW's.

Do you think it is possible? 

OS-China should be around 1 billion after the weekend which is pretty close to what IW's OS-China total was.

[Nakamura]

16 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

OS-China should be around 1 billion after the weekend which is pretty close to what IW's OS-China total was.

Ok. Thats nice. But it needs to be higher than that about 35% at the end of the run

Edited May 4, 2019 by Nakamura

[Nakamura]

In vietnam, EG already hit $10M after 7 days,  (this friday and saturday are national funeral days so no entertainment activities), already passed IW (~$8M). looking for $14M+ (+75%) at the end of the run 

[ZeeSoh]

Domestic :-

 

Endgame multi till Friday - 1.44

Infinity War multi till Friday - 1.435

 

I was surprised to see Endgame's multi till now is actually slightly higher than Infinity War. It should give a pause to those freaking out over Friday's jump because Endgame more than makes up for it thanks to its stronger weekdays. 

 

Endgame's total till Sunday using same Sat/Sun drops as IW - 623.3

Endgame's total till Sunday using IW Friday to Sun multi - 625

Endgame's total till Sunday using IW total multi till Sun - 629

Endgame's total till Sunday with same IW 2nd weekend drop - 632

 

Even using the 625m number till Sunday, Endgame's multi will still be almost the same as IW. Now IW final domestic multi was 2.634. The same will get Endgame to 940.67 which is above TFA. However with earlier competition and more frontloadedness I doubt Endgame will have the same multi. 

 

But even if Endgame makes the same amount as Endgame going forward (225.7m) it will still get to 850m. That is where i think it will finish at. Unfortunately won't overtake TFA.

 

Overseas :-

 

Endgame OS-China-Russia multi till Friday - 1.539

Infinity War OS-Russia multi till Friday - 1.557

 

Endgame's multi has been slightly worse than Infinity War's so far. Even it's Thursday to Friday jump is weaker than Infinity War's (without counting China and Russia for both).

 

Infinity War 1st weekend FSS = 287

Endgame 1st weekend FSS = 387.5

 

Infinity War's 2nd weekend FSS = 147 (-49%)

Endgame's 2nd weekend FSS with same drop = 193

Endgame's total OS with above number (+33 estimate for Russia whole week) = 997

 

Infinity War's 2nd weekend - 145.6 (-62%)

Endgame's 2nd weekend with same drop = 203.7

Endgame's total OS with above number (+33 estimate for Russia whole week) = 1007

 

Note - all above numbers are without China and Russia for both IW and Endgame (unless I made a mistake)

 

Total - 

 

625 Dom + 575 China + 1000 OS = 2200

This is assuming Endgame follows Infinity War overseas and domestically. While domestically is not an issue, Endgame is more frontloaded compared to Infinity War overseas till now. It is likely to drop worse over the weekend. So overall I think it may miss 2.2b by Sunday. 

 

Last Sunday I thought it would get to 2.175b by Sunday which is where I still think it will land

Edited May 4, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[TalismanRing]

Quote

But even if Endgame makes the same amount as Endgame going forward (225.7m) it will still get to 850m. That is where i think it will finish at. Unfortunately won't overtake TFA. 

 

You really think AEG is going to make just $225m more off a near $150m w/e?  A 2.5 multi continuing on? 

 

AIW had a 2.96x multi off it's 2nd weekend which would translate to $294m more = $918m

AOU even had a 2.88x off it's second which would mean $282m more = $906m

 

It doesn't have more competition the next couple of weeks.  Pickachu + John Wick aren't as direct comp as Deadpool 2 and might not make as much combined off two different w/es.  AOU had $135m combo on it's 3rd w/e between Pitch Perfect & Mad Max.

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by TalismanRing

[ZeeSoh]

56 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

You really think AEG is going to make just $225m more off a near $150m w/e?  A 2.5 multi continuing on? 

 

AIW had a 2.96x multi off it's 2nd weekend which would translate to $294m more = $918m

AOU even had a 1.88x off it's second which would mean $282m more = $906m

 

It doesn't have more competition the next couple of weeks.  Pickachu + John Wick aren't as direct comp as Deadpool 2 and might not make as much combined off two different w/es.  AOU had $135m combo on it's 3rd w/e between Pitch Perfect & Mad Max.

 

I was trying to be conservative and looks like I was successfull seeing that Fabio like . Let's say it does 900m domestic. Looks like it will make max 40 more in China. 

As for OS, IW multi off of its second weekend was 1.8x without China. Assuming Endgame does 200m this weekend, then same multi will give it 360 more OS-China.

 

That gives a total of 2850b assuming a total of 2.175b till Sunday. Some are expecting 2.2b till Sunday which I hope it reaches because I dont think it's OS-China multi going forward will be the same as IW seeing that it is already showing signs of frontloadedness. 

[Quigley]

4 hours ago, Nakamura said:

The total OS- China of IW at the end is $1.010B

Do you guys think EG can improve 35% from it? To become $1.363B at the end?

Any prediction? 

Actual Infinity War never reached $1B in OS-Ch. The BOM figure for China is wrong. It reached $376M in China, which means that OS-Ch barely missed $1B (it topped out at $993M).

[setna]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

I was trying to be conservative and looks like I was successfull seeing that Fabio like . Let's say it does 900m domestic. Looks like it will make max 40 more in China. 

As for OS, IW multi off of its second weekend was 1.8x without China. Assuming Endgame does 200m this weekend, then same multi will give it 360 more OS-China.

 

That gives a total of 2850b assuming a total of 2.175b till Sunday. Some are expecting 2.2b till Sunday which I hope it reaches because I dont think it's OS-China multi going forward will be the same as IW seeing that it is already showing signs of frontloadedness. 

 

 

All ths story about beating or not beating Avatar is resumed in one Word, China.

Avatar made 200 million 10 years ago in a very Little market compared with today.

Now, EG Will make more tan 600 million, this is a really huge 400+ million difference.

If EG beats  Avatar with less than these 400 million difference, the thing is obvious, not counting 10 years of inflation.

 

Of course EG has an amazing run, but i think being realistic can´t eclipse Avatar unless it makes 3,2 b, that i don´t see it.

 

Avatar did 100+ million in 10 countries!!!!, this is something astonishing, that EG, don´t think Will do...

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, setna said:

 

 

All ths story about beating or not beating Avatar is resumed in one Word, China.

Avatar made 200 million 10 years ago in a very Little market compared with today.

Now, EG Will make more tan 600 million, this is a really huge 400+ million difference.

If EG beats  Avatar with less than these 400 million difference, the thing is obvious, not counting 10 years of inflation.

 

Of course EG has an amazing run, but i think being realistic can´t eclipse Avatar unless it makes 3,2 b, that i don´t see it.

 

Avatar did 100+ million in 10 countries!!!!, this is something astonishing, that EG, don´t think Will do...

it doesnt need to