BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

When was the last time we had two back to back $150M+ OWs?

 

Unadjusted, that never happened. 2007 was the first and only time till now that weve had two 100M back-to-back openers (Shrek 3/Pirates 3).

 

 

[La Binoche]

Sandra Bullock's career was all but dead in 2008. I never would have expected a comeback from her, especially not one this big. She wasn't as adored as Julia Roberts. She didn't have a career built on risky, interesting films like Nicole Kidman. 

[WrathOfHan]

I was one of the few people in the summer game this week who predicted Ocean’s to cross 100M. Too bad about JW fucking me

[Alli]

Surprisingly good for JW2.

 

Hereditary was awesome btw

[baumer]

-39% for O8, great hold.

-45% for Tag...pretty good second weekend drop.

[La Binoche]

Nice 

 

 

[pepsa]

16 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think presales is a horrible way to judge a film.  Unless they are so out of this world like they were for TFA, you can't really get a true gauge of what a film will do based on presales.  Take me for example, I go to maybe 70-90 films a year, and the only film in my life I have ever pre-bought for was TFA.

Tbf I do think they mean a lot for big openers. But you have to separate them.

 

Compare SH PS with SH PS, not with SW. IW barely passed RO in PS but that is because SW is PS heavy.

SW always have big PS even Solo had relative big PS for its OW.

And JW is walk up driven so you have to give a bigger PS multi to JW  movies.

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I was one of the few people in the summer game this week who predicted Ocean’s to cross 100M. Too bad about JW fucking me

 

I went all in.  I thought it would hit 200.  Here's my hilariously bad top 15

 

1) Avengers Infinity War Part 1:  595.75

2) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom:  487.5

3) The Incredibles 2:  400.25

4) Solo:  400.00

5) Deadpool 2:  349.5

 

6) Ant-man and Wasp:  205

7) Skyscraper:  204.55

😎 Ocean's 8:  190

9) Mission Impossible:  Rogue Nation:  189

10) Christopher Robin:  125

 

11) Mama Mia:  116

12) Meg:  115

13) Hotel Transylvania 3:  114

14) The Spy Who Dumped Me: 95

15) The Equalizer 2:  90

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Yeah because blue aliens is what is missing to spice up the box office . Well maybe we will see them again in this lifetime or maybe not 😀

Exactly what I was thinking, are you a mind reader?

 

Honestly speaking it would nice to see something original come out and be huge just like Avatar was, I don't see that happening again though sadly. Seems like the top flight of box office is going to be dominated by Sequels, reboots and remakes for some time to come.

 

 

 

[edmkh]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

@JB33.....I posted this a couple of hours ago, he texted me last night and said that life and work is incredibly busy right now and he doesn't have a lot of time to post.  He's good otherwise.  

Thank you, Baumer, i am also a fan of you btw, i always enjoy reading your posts

[Taruseth]

@baumer You were correct, JW2 didn't behaved like a Sequel to a gigantic film presaleswise. Because those where really low, yet it ended up why higher.

And the legs over the weekend where good too after the 15.3M Previews I thought 143.3M OW...

And I thought it would be not that far away form JW 2nd weekend😂, while I am in @Brainbug's JW2, I2 over 500M club.

So I went from one extreme to the other😂

This should make 400M needs a 2 2/3 for that quite likely. As it doesn't have anything big opening the next weekend and 4th of July is before Ant-Man opens.

 

 

I thought that I2 had a chance of surpassing JW2 next weekend, but that would mean like a 40% drop for I2 (48M Weekend) and JW2 would need to drop at least 68%.

Edited June 24, 2018 by Taruseth

[YM!]

JWFK should have solid legs, especially due to a lackluster next weekend, and the 4th Of July holiday soon. It may get to $400M, a huge drop from JW1 nonetheless but should bode well for JW3.

 

I2 had a CBM esque drop but should rebound with summer weekdays and this weekend as well, after all Homecoming had a 62% drop and 2.86x multiple, not to mention will benefit from lack of big family movies as well as double features from Ant Man and Robin. Should finish at $550M at absolute worst.

[La Binoche]

It actually increased its PTA from last week with the addition of new screens. Wom hit. Toni Collette on fire. 

 

 

[sfran43]

 

 

[John Marston]

marketing for JW3 seems to have started already

 

 

 

[La Binoche]

Before JW2 I saw a trailer for a new Spider-Man. Have some shame. Have some humility. Have some self respect. I felt embarrassed for the studio. A fucking kid dresses up as spider and fights crime. It's barely enough to sustain one movie. This is the (12th?) reboot since 2002? But he's black and a cartoon now! Anything to justify doing another one. Fuck off. 

 

Edited June 24, 2018 by La Binoche

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, edmkh said:

Thank you, Baumer, i am also a fan of you btw, i always enjoy reading your posts

 

Thank you very much.  Nice of you to say.  Just remember that if I end up saying something mean to you in the future. 

 

LOL, all kidding, thanks for the kind words.

[GraceRandolph]

LOL I2 falling with 66%. I told BOT that this movie would play like a superhero movie.  That fact that people were predicting 600-700 million in total is beyond embarrassing. Stop overhyping stuff and use your brains - that way you won’t be disappointed. Beyond tired of seeing posts with  unrealistic expectations. 

 

 

[baumer]

For @Nova

 

 

315-320 looks doable from here.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

LOL I2 falling with 66%. I told BOT that this movie would play like a superhero movie.  That fact that people were predicting 600-700 million in total is beyond embarrassing. Stop overhyping stuff and use your brains - that way you won’t be disappointed. Beyond tired of seeing posts with  unrealistic expectations. 

 

 

 

It's dropping 58%, not 66.