jack-jack INCREDIBLES 2 Weekend |🏆| ACTUALS: 182.7M OW | O8 19M, Tag 14.9M, Solo 10M, DP2 8.7M, IW 5.4M

[Blankments]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

You can pm me.

pm'd

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

Sub 3x would mean Cars 2 legs (a 60% second weekend drop, little staying power afterwards) which naaah. I think movieman is letting every new update carry him off further into loonie land but this isn't going below 3x. 

You also thought that 160ish was the safe OW bet based on the OD. 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

Sub 3x would mean Cars 2 legs (a 60% second weekend drop, little staying power afterwards) which naaah. I think movieman is letting every new update carry him off further into loonie land but this isn't going below 3x. 

 

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Really ? I would imagine summer is still better for everything for a movie like that.

 

Both good points.  Should be interesting to follow over the summer.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

How is there a rush factor though when the movie is holding better on Sat than what's normal for Pixar? That doesn't make sense. 

Overflow ?

 

But yeah that should not go under 3.0, it is still a A+ animated movie, maybe it will not play like a normal one (around 4.0) considering how big it got OW and being a sequel, but it should still be a good one for a big OW sequel.

[baumer]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

You also thought that 160ish was the safe OW bet based on the OD. 

 

And you also make weird predictions and extrapolations from time to time, like the rest of us.  

[Ezen Baklattan]

With that number, a $180m weekend is very possible.

[Jake Gittes]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

You also thought that 160ish was the safe OW bet based on the OD. 

Well last I checked it's gonna get there so yeah

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The drop will be smaller. It is already holding significantly better than Dory on OW, and considering that's even with I2 doing over double the previews of Dory, this thing is basically screaming that it's not going to be frontloaded at all.  

The preview # is higher (and a higher % of the w/e) and it's going to have a slightly inflated w/e from it's Father's Day hold which gives it ore room to drop and JW:FK may underwhelm it's still taking PLF and IMAX and $100m+ of business next w/e.

 

We have no idea how first w/e front loaded it's going to be because of built in demand and how adult it's going to skew especially with previews being 57% no parental adult.

[MovieMan89]

Hey, you guys can quote me if this goes sub 3.5x and I'll eat lots of crow. Good luck with that though. 

[Joyous Legion]

12 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Finally, the puzzle is complete. We've got entries in the 200's, 190's, 170's, 160's and 150's etc etc. Now we have one in the 180's.

 

The next goal is to fill out the 210's and 230's.

TLK and EpIX, done by next year 

 

[narniadis]

Anyone thinking this film doesnt have intense rush needs to be reminded that it DOUBLED the previous preview numbers for an animated film and will top the adjusted OW high by 20m~

 

Anyone thinking this will collapse next weekend needs to be reminded of how Animation films play. Only thing that gives me pause are the huge previews. 

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hey, you guys can quote me if this goes sub 3.5x and I'll eat lots of crow. Good luck with that though. 

 

If it goes over 3.5 I'll be beyond shocked.  

[dxmatrixdt]

unbelievable jump.  unprecedented.  Incredibles gained over 5 million from actual Friday.  All the others would gain around 1 million or less.

 

I noticed a high volume of showings per theater when looking at Fandango on Wednesday for the Friday bookings.  Top theaters get 30-35 showings, I2 was pushing 40.  I imagine only TLJ gets that far as I have grown accustomed to seeing a certain range with like GOTG2, Secret Pets, Suicide Squad, Batman V Superman, etc. going from 30-35. 

Seeing that raised an alarm in my mind thinking 200M was possible then.  With matinees, who knows.

 

Incredibles is doing what I thought Minions was going to do from Minions initial trailer/hype response years ago.

 

 

Edited June 20, 2018 by mathemetrics

[MikeQ]

10 minutes ago, baumer said:

Is it possible that this could behave more like Beauty and the Beast instead of Finding Dory?  This is a massive opening and hence the multiplier could be less than 3.  I honestly have no idea and I'm just spit-balling here, but according to Mojo, the largest pure animated opening is Dory at 135 million.  This is going to best that by at least 45 million.  And the fact that this is going to open in BatB territory, could it mean that the multiplier could be similar?

 

Anything is possible, but it would be basically unheard of for a well-received Pixar film. Only Cars 2 and Cars 3 have sub-3 multipliers, and they are arguably the worst Pixar films (certainly the worst in terms of critical reception). All of the critically acclaimed Pixar films (90+% on RT) that opened on a Friday had 3.5+ multipliers (Wall-E with the lowest at 3.55). 

 

I still feel this will have strong Pixar legs, given the strong critical reception, apparently strong WOM (A+ Cinemascore, etc), and summer weekdays revving up. But you're right in that this is a massive opening weekend - so maybe your hunch will prove to be correct. *shrug*  

 

Peace,

Mike 

[Jake Gittes]

I'd say it drops somewhere between 46-53% next weekend. 

[Zakiyyah6]

This film is not going to behave like freaking Cars sequels or Beauty and the Bland.  It has zero chance of getting under a 3.3 multi in my not at all humble opinion.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

If it goes over 3.5 I'll be beyond shocked.  

I really don't know why though? Every single sign one could possibly ask for is there for it. Sure none of us know anything for sure about a multi, but this is equivalent to saying TFA wouldn't go sub 3.5x when that came out. All the signs are there. 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Anyone thinking this film doesnt have intense rush needs to be reminded that it DOUBLED the previous preview numbers for an animated film and will top the adjusted OW high by 20m~

 

Anyone thinking this will collapse next weekend needs to be reminded of how Animation films play. Only thing that gives me pause are the huge previews. 

 

I don't think it will collapse next weekend at all.  But it is going to have a Sunday that is probably about 20% better than a normal Sunday (if it drops softly like I think it will), and like you said, it doubled the preview number record for animation. Plus it has to deal with the opening of JWFK. The WOM is fantastic so it has that its favour....rub all of these points together and I'm just guessing that the drop will be around 53-55% next weekend.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

Anything is possible, but it would be basically unheard of for a well-received Pixar film. Only Cars 2 and Cars 3 have sub-3 multipliers, and they are arguably the worst Pixar films (certainly the worst in terms of critical reception). All of the critically acclaimed Pixar films (90+% on RT) that opened on a Friday had 3.5+ multipliers (Wall-E with the lowest at 3.55). 

 

I still feel this will have strong Pixar legs, given the strong critical reception, apparently strong WOM (A+ Cinemascore, etc), and summer weekdays revving up. But you're right in that this is a massive opening weekend - so maybe your hunch will prove to be correct. *shrug*  

 

Peace,

Mike 

 

It would be unheard of but so is opening to 180 million.  

 

And keep in mind, it's definitely not a hunch....I don't have a feel for it one way or the other....I'm just asking....basically playing devil's advocate.

[dxmatrixdt]

I have no idea what the weekdays will be.  I imagine fairly large.  Might want to get out a notepad for that one and do direct day by day comparisons of two or three varieties with Toy Story 3, Inside Out, Cars 3, and Cars 2.  Small % difference might mean the difference between 1 million per weekday.

 

Jurassic World might still eat up all kids attendance next week providing 50% weekend day-to-day drops for I2.  (30 Sat #2)  

Spoiler

*swallows* 

Spoiler

40

 

 

Jurassic World is the only one opening next week which will let the older movies not die yet.