Weekend Thread | Preview #s The Nun 5.4M, Peppermint 750k

[KeepItU25071906]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If you want a non-summer Conjuring comp, Annabelle dropped 57%

 

That's what I'm talking about. Also, first Annabelle jump +5% on Saturday (if count true Friday), "The Nun" - almost 18%.

 

So, maybe, MAYBE, it has a chance about the same drop (-60/58%) even with losing PLF screens.

 

 

Edited September 9, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Maybe I'm wrong, but Mouse permanently underestimates Sunday for the Pooh since the second weekend.

Not just Pooh but also BP, AIW  and I think I2 as well - week after week.  Baffling.

[KeepItU25071906]

8 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

they'll hypnotize WB honcho so that he wants to sell WB too. 

no chance. Of course, Mouse has an orange friend in the White House but...  I think Netflix will buy Mouse in the next ten years.

Edited September 9, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

no chance. Of course, Mouse has an orange friend in the White House but...  I think Netflix will buy Mouse in the next ten years.

It's not the Mouse who's the friend it's Fox and Murdoch.  

 

Disney is doing this deal precisely so they won't be bought by Netflix or Apple.  With this deal they'll own 2/3rd of Hulu in addition to starting their own streaming service.

 

Netflix's Market Cap is also vastly inflated

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/24/netflixs-market-cap-is-now-greater-than-disneys-an.aspx

 

 

Fundamental Metric	Netflix	Disney	Comcast
Revenue	$12.8 billion	$56.9 billion	$86.7 billion
Operating income	$1 billion	$14.3 billion	$18.1 billion
Net income	$670.8 million	$11.5 billion	$23.3 billion
Operating margin	8%	25%	21%
Free cash flow	($1.8 billion)	$10.7 billion	$10 billion

[YM!]

Can we talk about how strong WB has been this summer and fall? The Meg which everyone thought would flop is a $150M/$500M WW smash, CRA is the first big comedy in like forever, and The Nun has the second biggest September OW and fourth best for horror (mark my words Conjuring 3 is doing $70M+ OW. 

 

The rest of the year isn’t slouching either. Aquaman, although I don’t think it’ll reach the $300M some are screaming about due to competition will be a solid earner (Doctor Strange numbers DOM/WW), and Beasts 2 will be big as well, can see it being flat DOM but bigger WW. A Star Is Born could also break out as well.

 

The only film this year from WB that could flop is sadly Smallfoot, but who knows animated musicals do well and LeBron and Zendaya could help it (I know I’m grasping at straws but I’d like to see WB continuing the momentum of surprise hits and WAG deserves a hit).

[KeepItU25071906]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Disney is doing this deal precisely so they won't be bought by Netflix or Apple.  With this deal they'll own 2/3rd of Hulu in addition to starting their own streaming service.

1

It was a sarcasm)

[Barnack]

38 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Mouse never sleeps, Mouse plots WB acquisition. 

Should we buy AT&T stock's ?

[Valonqar]

12 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Should we buy AT&T stock's ?

buy everything!

[Eric Loves Rey]

20 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Can we talk about how strong WB has been this summer and fall? The Meg which everyone thought would flop is a $150M/$500M WW smash, CRA is the first big comedy in like forever, and The Nun has the second biggest September OW and fourth best for horror (mark my words Conjuring 3 is doing $70M+ OW. 

 

The rest of the year isn’t slouching either. Aquaman, although I don’t think it’ll reach the $300M some are screaming about due to competition will be a solid earner (Doctor Strange numbers DOM/WW), and Beasts 2 will be big as well, can see it being flat DOM but bigger WW. A Star Is Born could also break out as well.

 

The only film this year from WB that could flop is sadly Smallfoot, but who knows animated musicals do well and LeBron and Zendaya could help it (I know I’m grasping at straws but I’d like to see WB continuing the momentum of surprise hits and WAG deserves a hit).

Makes me think of the time back earlier in the year when somebody went on about how WB was in shambles and was in danger of being in a slump after Tomb Raider or some shit didn't do that well. Hilarious.

[Jonwo]

30 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Can we talk about how strong WB has been this summer and fall? The Meg which everyone thought would flop is a $150M/$500M WW smash, CRA is the first big comedy in like forever, and The Nun has the second biggest September OW and fourth best for horror (mark my words Conjuring 3 is doing $70M+ OW. 

 

The rest of the year isn’t slouching either. Aquaman, although I don’t think it’ll reach the $300M some are screaming about due to competition will be a solid earner (Doctor Strange numbers DOM/WW), and Beasts 2 will be big as well, can see it being flat DOM but bigger WW. A Star Is Born could also break out as well.

 

The only film this year from WB that could flop is sadly Smallfoot, but who knows animated musicals do well and LeBron and Zendaya could help it (I know I’m grasping at straws but I’d like to see WB continuing the momentum of surprise hits and WAG deserves a hit).

The Mule could also be a hit although that's going make most of its cash in 2019. 

 

Smallfoot is 50/50, the hook is much stronger than Storks but it does face competition from The House with a Clock on its Walls. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes WAG's most successful non Lego movie, I don't think WAG have any original films in 2019 or 2020 as 2019 is LM2 and 2020 is Scooby. 

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Makes me think of the time back earlier in the year when somebody went on about how WB was in shambles and was in danger of being in a slump after Tomb Raider or some shit didn't do that well. Hilarious.

When you consider this is a quiet year for WB, they've done quite well. 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2018 by Jonwo

[Hades]

43 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It's not the Mouse who's the friend it's Fox and Murdoch.  

 

Disney is doing this deal precisely so they won't be bought by Netflix or Apple.  With this deal they'll own 2/3rd of Hulu in addition to starting their own streaming service.

 

Netflix's Market Cap is also vastly inflated

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/24/netflixs-market-cap-is-now-greater-than-disneys-an.aspx

 

 

Fundamental Metric	Netflix	Disney	Comcast
Revenue	$12.8 billion	$56.9 billion	$86.7 billion
Operating income	$1 billion	$14.3 billion	$18.1 billion
Net income	$670.8 million	$11.5 billion	$23.3 billion
Operating margin	8%	25%	21%
Free cash flow	($1.8 billion)	$10.7 billion	$10 billion

Disney streaming is going to flop soooo bad...

[Barnack]

19 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

buy everything!

Was more in the sense AT&T just bought Time Warner last june, would be quite the surprise if they sell Warner to Disney right away (and if they do it would be because of an really nice price).

[YM!]

15 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The Mule could also be a hit although that's going make most of its cash in 2019. 

 

Smallfoot is 50/50, the hook is much stronger than Storks but it does face competition from The House with a Clock on its Walls. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes WAG's most successful non Lego movie, I don't think WAG have any original films in 2019 or 2020 as 2019 is LM2 and 2020 is Scooby. 

2019 is a big year for WB.

 

The Mule imho has a shot for $100M+.

LEGO 2 imho will benefit from the slight break of LEGO movies and is the first major family film, think $200M can still happen. 

People say Aquaman can hit $400M, but Shazam! is way more likely imo. I can easily see Homecoming numbers.

Detective Pikachu also can be a surprise hit, also thinking $200M+.

Godzilla 2 will be yuge like $100M/$250M huge

Annabelle 3 can also cross $100M as well

IT 2 will definitely continue the WB September horror win streak but it’ll fall from IT quite a bit.

The Kitchen can surprise as can Joker, the latter has potential to do $170M-$190M

WW2 will be the crown jewel and the competition for biggest fall film between Frozen 2.

 

 

If they put more effort into Smallfoot, I could’ve see it easily cross $100M as a star studded musical if they just gave it some decent marketing. Thinking $60M-$80M though.

Edited September 9, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Barnack]

Just now, Hades said:

Disney streaming is going to flop soooo bad.

Disney biggest source of operating income is by streaming stuff, their network division revenues are 3 times the movie/TV division size.

[Hades]

Apple or Amazon will buy the mouse when ready

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Was more in the sense AT&T just bought Time Warner last june, would be quite the surprise if they sell Warner to Disney right away (and if they do it would be because of an really nice price).

You are wrong. Mouse will buy all of AT&T! 

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

WB is killing it.And i was thinking that they would go quiet this year.And tgey still have Aquaman,A Star is Born and FB.Amazing.

[Valonqar]

Guys, I know I'm annoying but can someone please tell BOM and Boxoffice.com that BK number is wrong? Look, these numbers for Fri, Sat and Sun aren't just 1.56M weekend, they are 2.66M:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

 

$751,000 +149.4% / $485 $41,639,530 / 29

$1,156,000 +53.9% / $747 $42,795,530 / 30

$659,000 -43% / $426 $43,454,530 / 31

 

why keep a good movie underestimated by 1M that it earned? It didn't drop 62% c'mon. I can't contact these guys but I'm sure someone can. 

[Hades]

Disney better EASILY win every year at the box office for the next ten years . It would be beyond hilarious if another Studio causes a 2015 type upset...Its going to happen sooner rather than latter..

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Was more in the sense AT&T just bought Time Warner last june, would be quite the surprise if they sell Warner to Disney right away (and if they do it would be because of an really nice price).

WarnerMedia as a whole is very valuable to AT&T and allows them to compete with the big players like Amazon and Netflix as well as Comcast.

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

2019 is a big year for WB.

 

The Mule imho has a shot for $100M+.

LEGO 2 imho will benefit from the slight break of LEGO movies and is the first major family film, think $200M can still happen. 

People say Aquaman can hit $400M, but Shazam! is way more likely imo. I can easily see Homecoming numbers.

Detective Pikachu also can be a surprise hit, also thinking $200M+.

Godzilla 2 will be yuge like $100M/$250M huge

Annabelle 3 can also cross $100M as well

IT 2 will definitely continue the WB September horror win streak but it’ll fall from IT quite a bit.

The Kitchen can surprise as can Joker, the latter has potential to do $170M-$190M

WW2 will be the crown jewel and the competition for biggest fall film between Frozen 2.

 

 

If they put more effort into Smallfoot, I could’ve see it easily cross $100M as a star studded musical if they just gave it some decent marketing. Thinking $60M-$80M though.

TBF WB still has a few weeks for Smallfoot and they've marketed better than say Storks with the giant Yeti village in LA as one example. I think if it hits the high end of tracking of $27m and has similar legs to Storks then $100m+ can happen.

 

I wonder with AQP2 now in May 2020, I wonder if WB will move Scooby to either August or September 2020? I'd be tempted to put it in the first weekend of September slot.