Weekend Thread | Preview #s The Nun 5.4M, Peppermint 750k

[Hades]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-heats-up-but-some-studios-left-cold-1126179

 

I guess they had a plan...

[KJsooner]

2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Welcome to how box office works. 

Hey dumbass. If you’re trying to impress me with your supposed ‘box office knowledge.’ Keep on trying. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while. Stop acting like your some box office guru. You’re the farthest thing from it. 

 

I’ll make sure to jump all over your ass when you miss predictions.

 

Thanks and have a great day. 

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Hey dumbass. If you’re trying to impress me with your supposed ‘box office knowledge.’ Keep on trying. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while. Stop acting like your some box office guru. You’re the farthest thing from it. 

 

I’ll make sure to jump all over your ass when you miss predictions.

 

Thanks and have a great day. 

Don't act like you were not the one taking an aggressive tone to start with, a -38% drop is the exact same drop than The Help had for the very same weekend, it is not a blind squirrel luck.

 

If you do not want people pointing your mistake do not end your message with a : 

And I will be here next weekend. 

Or stuff like:

That dude doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

 

Implicating that you would have jump all over people ass if they would miss their prediction.

[YM!]

44 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

TBF WB still has a few weeks for Smallfoot and they've marketed better than say Storks with the giant Yeti village in LA as one example. I think if it hits the high end of tracking of $27m and has similar legs to Storks then $100m+ can happen.

 

I wonder with AQP2 now in May 2020, I wonder if WB will move Scooby to either August or September 2020? I'd be tempted to put it in the first weekend of September slot. 

My guess is probably up a week to the May 8th. Besides looking at this year 2019 and 2020, September is becoming packed with family films.

[Premium George]

Also, jake can be called a box office guru. He is a beast at bot games with unreal consistency. And, whenever he comments, there is evaluation behind prediction. Not completely blind like someone else.

I wish @Simionski commented in main threads, he is insanely consistent too.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

My guess is probably up a week to the May 8th. Besides looking at this year 2019 and 2020, September is becoming packed with family films.

I think if Detective Pikachu works in that second week of May slot then I can see WB moving Scooby up a week although it would have to face Barbie although TBH that's been stuck in development for so long, I'm not sure it'll be released by May 2020. 

[KJsooner]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Don't act like you were not the one taking an aggressive tone to start with, a -38% drop is the exact same drop than The Help had for the very same weekend, it is not a blind squirrel luck.

 

If you do not want people pointing your mistake do not end your message with a : 

And I will be here next weekend. 

Or stuff like:

That dude doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

 

Implicating that you would have jump all over people ass if they would miss their prediction.

 

Using a movie from 7 years ago(which isn’t even the same type of movie) to predict a box office drop is the dumbest thing I’ve heard in a while. There was no proof CRA was going to drop more than 30% after drops of 6% and 10% the previous regardless of Labor Day weekend. Which I don’t find Labor Day to be a big time movie going holiday. I would’ve predicted a 25-30 percent drop, but it felt a bit more then I expected probably in due to the stupid Nun movie coming out. Anybody can come up with ‘well A movie acted like this, so B movie will, based on what happened 10 years!’

 

I’ll gladly take my crow. But I’m still not going to act like Jake is some box office God. Not one bit.

[aabattery]

Dial it down, @KJsooner.

[Jake Gittes]

4 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

 

Using a movie from 7 years ago(which isn’t even the same type of movie) to predict a box office drop is the dumbest thing I’ve heard in a while. There was no proof CRA was going to drop more than 30% after drops of 6% and 10% the previous regardless of Labor Day weekend. Which I don’t find Labor Day to be a big time movie going holiday. I would’ve predicted a 25-30 percent drop, but it felt a bit more then I expected probably in due to the stupid Nun movie coming out. Anybody can come up with ‘well A movie acted like this, so B movie will, based on what happened 10 years!’

 

I’ll gladly take my crow. But I’m still not going to act like Jake is some box office God. Not one bit.

It's not about having "proof" or what you find or don't find, it's about historical precedent. If you want to predict box office, history is one of the most important things you can know. And the history of the post-Labor Day weekend is that movies drop hard on it. Always have. 

 

No, The Help is not the exact same type of movie as CRA. But that's only insofar as it's not a romcom. But genre is not the most important thing. What's important is that, like CRA, it was a massive crowdpleaser released on a Wednesday in mid-August to a mid-20's OW, and then it dropped 38% on the post-Labor Day weekend. If you look for August crowdpleasers that are comedies or have a comedic bent, there's Guardians of the Galaxy and We're the Millers, which had fantastic legs in August, then both dropped 39% on the post-LD weekend. The fucking Sixth Sense, which was leggier than even CRA could ever hope to be, dropped 28% on that weekend and that was 19 years ago. 

 

The reason CRA dropped 6% and then 10% in its first couple weekends is because WOM spread quickly and people who didn't immediately see it got interested and went a week or two later. But that never meant they were just gonna keep flocking to it over and over. This isn't Titanic and it was never going to be. This is a Get Out, which had an exceptional hold early on because it took people by surprise, and then had legs that were strong but nothing ridiculous. The fact that CRA already dropped harder on its third (and holiday!) weekend than on its second should have told you something. 

 

You're not taking your crow gladly cause you're still ranting. If you call someone a dolt and go "cocaine's a helluva drug" and then a week later they're totally right and you're wrong, you better be able to understand why they were right without them wasting 30 minutes to type it out like I'm doing right now for some reason. You're on a box office forum. Don't go around trashing strangers' box office predictions like an arrogant jerk unless you actually know what you're talking about. 

[Jake Gittes]

37 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Also, jake can be called a box office guru. He is a beast at bot games with unreal consistency. And, whenever he comments, there is evaluation behind prediction. Not completely blind like someone else.

I wish @Simionski commented in main threads, he is insanely consistent too.

Tbf I've made some embarrassing calls this summer game but thanks for sticking up for me. 

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

It's not about having "proof" or what you find or don't find, it's about historical precedent. If you want to predict box office, history is one of the most important things you can know. And the history of the post-Labor Day weekend is that movies drop hard on it. Always have. 

 

No, The Help is not the exact same type of movie as CRA. But that's only insofar as it's not a romcom. But genre is not the most important thing. What's important is that, like CRA, it was a massive crowdpleaser released on a Wednesday in mid-August to a mid-20's OW, and then it dropped 38% on the post-Labor Day weekend. If you look for August crowdpleasers that are comedies or have a comedic bent, there's Guardians of the Galaxy and We're the Millers, which had fantastic legs in August, then both dropped 39% on the post-LD weekend. The fucking Sixth Sense, which was leggier than even CRA could ever hope to be, dropped 28% on that weekend and that was 19 years ago. 

 

The reason CRA dropped 6% and then 10% in its first couple weekends is because WOM spread quickly and people who didn't immediately see it got interested and went a week or two later. But that never meant they were just gonna keep flocking to it over and over. This isn't Titanic and it was never going to be. This is a Get Out, which had an exceptional hold early on because it took people by surprise, and then had legs that were strong but nothing ridiculous. The fact that CRA already dropped harder on its third (and holiday!) weekend than on its second should have told you something. 

 

You're not taking your crow gladly cause you're still ranting. If you call someone a dolt and go "cocaine's a helluva drug" and then a week later they're totally right and you're wrong, you better be able to understand why they were right without them wasting 30 minutes to type it out like I'm doing right now for some reason. You're on a box office forum. Don't go around trashing strangers' box office predictions like an arrogant jerk unless you actually know what you're talking about. 

[KJsooner]

12 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

It's not about having "proof" or what you find or don't find, it's about historical precedent. If you want to predict box office, history is one of the most important things you can know. And the history of the post-Labor Day weekend is that movies drop hard on it. Always have. 

 

No, The Help is not the exact same type of movie as CRA. But that's only insofar as it's not a romcom. But genre is not the most important thing. What's important is that, like CRA, it was a massive crowdpleaser released on a Wednesday in mid-August to a mid-20's OW, and then it dropped 38% on the post-Labor Day weekend. If you look for August crowdpleasers that are comedies or have a comedic bent, there's Guardians of the Galaxy and We're the Millers, which had fantastic legs in August, then both dropped 39% on the post-LD weekend. The fucking Sixth Sense, which was leggier than even CRA could ever hope to be, dropped 28% on that weekend and that was 19 years ago. 

 

The reason CRA dropped 6% and then 10% in its first couple weekends is because WOM spread quickly and people who didn't immediately see it got interested and went a week or two later. But that never meant they were just gonna keep flocking to it over and over. This isn't Titanic and it was never going to be. This is a Get Out, which had an exceptional hold early on because it took people by surprise, and then had legs that were strong but nothing ridiculous. The fact that CRA already dropped harder on its third (and holiday!) weekend than on its second should have told you something. 

 

You're not taking your crow gladly cause you're still ranting. If you call someone a dolt and go "cocaine's a helluva drug" and then a week later they're totally right and you're wrong, you better be able to understand why they were right without them wasting 30 minutes to type it out like I'm doing right now for some reason. You're on a box office forum. Don't go around trashing strangers' box office predictions like an arrogant jerk unless you actually know what you're talking about. 

 

[MrPink]

23 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Tbf I've made some embarrassing calls this summer game but thanks for sticking up for me. 

 

Not even in the top 10. Sad!

[Webslinger]

The Nun killed it this weekend. Perhaps I'm letting my own lack of interest in the character color my perceptions, but I was skeptical of whether it could perform better than the Annabelle spinoffs up until the ad campaign kicked into gear. Even with the weak CinemaScore and the crowded schedule ahead, it will extend the franchise's run to four out of five entries over $100 million domestically, and a multiplier in line with the first Annabelle would put its domestic total at $121.4 million.

 

Crazy Rich Asians put up another solid hold. Its drop is about in line with that of The Help after Labor Day weekend, and the larger week-to-week drop today inflates the overall weekend drop. I see it reaching something around $175-180 million before closing.

 

Peppermint opened decently against poor reviews and Jennifer Garner's long time away from headlining an action-driven product. Legs aren't likely to be strong, but it's going to go down as a moderately respectable performer against its modest budget.

 

The Meg still appears to be on track for a total around $145 million.

 

Searching scored a nice hold, courtesy of a significant expansion. I still think it could have performed more impressively if Sony had taken it wider and given it a greater push out of the gate, but it's still a winner against what has to be a tiny budget.

 

Mission: Impossible - Fallout is now just a few million away from hitting a new domestic high mark for the series. It looks like its final numbers will match with Rogue Nation's adjusted performance almost on the dot.

 

Christopher Robin held nicely again. It will squeak past $100 million, even if it takes some time to get there.

 

As others have stated, BlacKkKlansman's number on BOM is a misprint; it actually held up fairly well. It should ultimately finish close to $50 million.

[Jonwo]

I wouldn't be surprised if the top 5 September OW will be WB/New Line horror films in a couple of years. 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2018 by Jonwo

[MOVIEGUY]

1 hour ago, KJsooner said:

 

Using a movie from 7 years ago(which isn’t even the same type of movie) to predict a box office drop is the dumbest thing I’ve heard in a while. There was no proof CRA was going to drop more than 30% after drops of 6% and 10% the previous regardless of Labor Day weekend. Which I don’t find Labor Day to be a big time movie going holiday. I would’ve predicted a 25-30 percent drop, but it felt a bit more then I expected probably in due to the stupid Nun movie coming out. Anybody can come up with ‘well A movie acted like this, so B movie will, based on what happened 10 years!’

 

I’ll gladly take my crow. But I’m still not going to act like Jake is some box office God. Not one bit.

Lol this is not how crow is eaten, this is the exact opposite

[FilmBuff]

Sub 35% drop is still really good. Especially against a juggernaut like TCU. I can’t remember many films which opened up to 50+ mil in September. Only a couple.

[aabattery]

You don't even have to treat Jake as a god here (feel free to do so tho, he's a good dude). I think most people here would have predicted a hold like that. Post-Labor Day weekends aren't exactly a mystery and, despite what KJ is saying, historical comps are generally pretty useful. Not the be all and end all, but they give you a pretty good idea of what to expect.

[CoolioD1]

1 hour ago, FilmBuff said:

Sub 35% drop is still really good. Especially against a juggernaut like TCU. I can’t remember many films which opened up to 50+ mil in September. Only a couple.

yeah this is only the second.

[sfran43]