Official Oct 5 to Oct 7 Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Venom - 80M (205M WW OW); A Star is Born - 42.6M

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It won't. It's still looking very good for two acting noms and a couple of techs. I suspect it won't win anything other than maybe a tech category though.

I was more so talking about best picture 

 

Tech noms it's a shoe in for but I don't think studios have their films debut at film festivals just to get tech nods. 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Nova

[MattW]

I'm not buying a 22% Sunday drop for Venom. Gone girl, Martian, gravity all dropped over 30%. As a general rule October movies drop a fair bit on Sunday, exceptions are few. I think Sunday for Venom comes in 16-18m tomorrow morning.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, MattW said:

I'm not buying a 22% Sunday drop for Venom. Gone girl, Martian, gravity all dropped over 30%. As a general rule October movies drop a fair bit on Sunday, exceptions are few. I think Sunday for Venom comes in 16-18m tomorrow morning.

Columbus Day is on Monday. For example last October, Blade Runner dropped 22% on Sunday. 

 

Typically Sunday drops in October and in September are 40% but not on this weekend because of Columbus Day. 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Nova

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

I was more so talking about best picture 

 

Tech noms it's a shoe in for but I don't think studios have their films debut at film festivals just to get tech nods. 

Think it would have to really underperform to miss in Best Picture. A Captain Phillips type of run (which I'm thinking is what is in store) will be enough to keep it in the conversation.

[Eric Duncan]

12 minutes ago, Alli said:

Gosling looks to deliver another boring performance. meh

As someone who has seen the movie, that is far from the case.

[Jonwo]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I always thought it made more sense as a summer counterprogramming title but I guess they wanted those festival premieres. It'll do fine, but the next Gravity or Interstellar or The Martian it won't be.

I can see why Universal scheduled it in October but I imagine they weren't expecting Venom and ASIB to overpeform.

 

 

[KeepItU25071906]

WTF WITH "PEPPERMINT"?!

 

 

Sep 7–9	2	$13,423,255	-	2,980	-	$4,504	$13,423,255	1
Sep 14–16	6	$6,004,227	-55.3%	2,980	-	$2,015	$24,180,031	2
Sep 21–23	7	$3,684,122	-38.6%	2,680	-300	$1,375	$30,296,681	3
Sep 28–30	10	$1,766,458	-52.1%	2,002	-678	$882	$33,523,366	4
Oct 5–7	24	$45,000 (Estimate)	-97.5%	813	-1,189	$55	$34,288,394 (Estimate)	5

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

WTF WITH "PEPPERMINT"?!

 

 

Sep 7–9	2	$13,423,255	-	2,980	-	$4,504	$13,423,255	1
Sep 14–16	6	$6,004,227	-55.3%	2,980	-	$2,015	$24,180,031	2
Sep 21–23	7	$3,684,122	-38.6%	2,680	-300	$1,375	$30,296,681	3
Sep 28–30	10	$1,766,458	-52.1%	2,002	-678	$882	$33,523,366	4
Oct 5–7	24	$45,000 (Estimate)	-97.5%	813	-1,189	$55	$34,288,394 (Estimate)	5

A 0 has to be missing after the 5.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

A 0 has to be missing after the 5.

I don't think it is. Box office pro also reported it with a 97% drop 

 

*in their Friday update, they had it with a 97% drop for the limited release films 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Nova

[4815162342]

16 hours ago, CJohn said:

Only a few more hours until I fly away again until 2019.

 

Esme and Lorna will help me keep going. 👀

 

Of course the show balances that out by having worst character Andy now look like a discount Neo-Nazi

[miketheavenger]

Just got back from Venom and I have to agree with the majority here that it was quite fun. Not a great movie, but entertaining enough that I'm looking forward to a sequel. Happy to see it doing so well, though I imagine Sony is gonna learn all the wrong lessons from this (making too many other villain-based films, possibly throwing Venom in as many of those as possible). Just make Venom 2 first and then look for some other potential movies.

[Damianport1]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It won't. It's still looking very good for two acting noms and a couple of techs. I suspect it won't win anything other than maybe a tech category though.

Nah, it's getting more than that. about 10 noms including BP and BD. and i think its winning 3-4 techs; editing. sound, sound editing, score. Visual effects also possibliity.

[sfran43]

 

[Cmasterclay]

I think First Man is definitely getting a Best Picture nom but I can see a world where both Chazelle and Gosling miss. 

 

I think 30m would be a victory for it next weekend. I've never bought some of the predictions that had it doing 40m+ or 150m+. It's a dad movie biopic, not the next Interstellar as some people have said. Captain Phillips adjusted (28.5/120m domestically) would be my prediction.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think First Man is definitely getting a Best Picture nom but I can see a world where both Chazelle and Gosling miss. 

 

I think 30m would be a victory for it next weekend. I've never bought some of the predictions that had it doing 40m+ or 150m+. It's a dad movie biopic, not the next Interstellar as some people have said. Captain Phillips adjusted (28.5/120m domestically) would be my prediction.

Chazelle I can understand, but Gosling? Best Actor is beyond dead this year aside from Bale and Cooper. Don't see how he misses if his film ends up a Best Picture nominee.

Edited October 7, 2018 by filmlover

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Chazelle I can understand, but Gosling? Best Actor is beyond dead this year aside from Bale and Cooper. Don't see how he misses if his film ends up a Best Picture nominee.

Edited October 7, 2018 by Nova

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Chazelle I can understand, but Gosling? Best Actor is beyond dead this year aside from Bale and Cooper. Don't see how he misses if his film ends up a Best Picture nominee.

It's apparently not a showy performance. Right now he's number five for me. Bale and Cooper are in. Malek is apparently great in Bohemian Rhaspody, a showy role in what should be a hit. Mortensen has gotten big praise for Green Book. While not as much as Ali, he's a well-liked actor given a meaty role in a probable Best Picture nom that should make good money. I think they probably want to nominate Redford one more time, and Old Man and the Gun is their chance. And in a big upset....I think Ethan Hawke maybe makes it. There's been alot of talk about Hawke this year for being a generational icon and all that, felt like the year we really came to appreciate him. And his performance in First Reformed is probably still the most praised of the year. If that movie came out in November instead of June, he would be a mortal lock. As it stands, I think he has a puncher's chance, competing with Gosling and Redford.

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Best Actress was competitive that year. Best Actor this year isn't, especially with tepid WOM of Bohemian Rhapsody recently coming out.

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

Of course the show balances that out by having worst character Andy now look like a discount Neo-Nazi

Everytime he shows up I have to look away 

[Eric Duncan]

Also, I should mention that Gosling's performance definitely isn't showy. It's very good, but pretty underplayed. But with Bohemian Rhapsody's "eh" reception from Kyle Buchanan and Anne Thompson, as well as Old Man & The Gun's mediocre box office, the only other competitors left are Bale, Cooper, Mortensen, Eastwood, Lucas Hedges (a longshot from a movie that doesn't have a lot going for it), John David Washington (Adam Driver has gotten better ink) and Ethan Hawke (from a movie that nobody watched). I think Gosling will sneak in a la Kaluuya.

Edited October 7, 2018 by CoolEric258