Official Oct 5 to Oct 7 Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Venom - 80M (205M WW OW); A Star is Born - 42.6M

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I'll be curious to how Joker does next year, it probably won't do near Venom's OW but I think it could do over $50-60m OW if it's good.

 

 

The hype was pretty big last week, wouldn’t be surprised if it pushes that and does 60-70

[Eric Duncan]

Is Cruise really a draw though, at least in the States? The last non-MI movie he was in that made $100M was Edge of Tomorrow, and past that, it was War of the Worlds.

[Curtis1986]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Is Cruise really a draw though, at least in the States? The last non-MI movie he was in that made $100M was Edge of Tomorrow, and past that, it was War of the Worlds.

Not anymore unless its a M I film.

[lilmac]

Here we go again with Disney (AWIT and $100m, BP and $700m, Incredibles 2 and $600m) - will or won't Christopher Robin get to $100m...that is the question.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Is Cruise really a draw though, at least in the States? The last non-MI movie he was in that made $100M was Edge of Tomorrow, and past that, it was War of the Worlds.

Does a movie have to make $100M domestic in order for an actor to be a draw though? If that's the threshold you're using, then barely any actor or actress in Hollywood are draws. 

[Cmasterclay]

The way I determine whether someone is a draw is super weird: I think about I Am Legend. It was a huge hit based on Will Smith's draw power. It's sold solely on one guy, as literally as that can be, and it cuts out all the elements. A semi-original blockbuster sold out one person and one person only. It has elements of horror, action, drama, even comedy. It's a big time commercial play that originally had at least some vague award rumblings. You can alter the marketing a little based on who the star is. It's a perfect vacuum test. So I ask myself, in this strange exercise - if you replaced 2007 Will Smith with any current actor, which one takes I Am Legend to the highest gross? I go

 

1. Leo

2. Denzel

3. Rock

4. Cruise

5. Hardy

6. Jackman

7. Cooper

8. Current Will Smith

9. Michael B Jordan

10. Hmmmm.... Robert Downey Jr? Matt Damon?

 

This exercise does not work for Hanks or Kevin Hart, two definite draws who have brands completely separate from other leading man fare.

 

I think there's a chance I'm underrating RDJ. Can't really get a read on him outside Iron Man.

Edited October 7, 2018 by Cmasterclay

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The way I determine whether someone is a draw is super weird: I think about I Am Legend. It was a huge hit based on Will Smith's draw power. It's sold solely on one guy, as literally as that can be, and it cuts out all the elements. A semi-original blockbuster sold out one person and one person only. It has elements of horror, action, drama, even comedy. It's a big time commercial play that originally had at least some vague award rumblings. You can alter the marketing a little based on who the star is. It's a perfect vacuum test. So I ask myself, in this strange exercise - if you replaced 2007 Will Smith with any current actor, which one takes I Am Legend to the highest gross? I go

 

1. Leo

2. Denzel

3. Rock

4. Cruise

5. Hardy

6. Jackman

7. Cooper

8. Current Will Smith

9. Michael B Jordan

10. Hmmmm....Matt Damon?

 

This exercise does not work for Hanks or Kevin Hart, two definite draws who have brands completely separate from other leading man fare.

I'm not sure if I Am Legend would even be a major theatrical release in today's climate. Good chance it might've been a Netflix thing if it were made today.

Edited October 7, 2018 by filmlover

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm not sure if I Am Legend would even be a major theatrical release in today's climate. Good chance it might've been a Netflix thing if it were made today.

Eh, with a half-decent marketing campaign  and a better ending I could see at least Leo or Denzel taking it to 150m.

[CoolioD1]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm not sure if I Am Legend would even be a major theatrical release in today's climate. Good chance it might've been a Netflix thing if it were made today.

i wouldn't go that far. i'm really interested in how Gemini Man ends up doing.

[Jonwo]

RDJ made the Sherlock Holmes movies successful but outside of that, it's a bit of a mixed bag. 

 

Most actors need the right role or film to be successful, Will Smith has starred in films like Collateral Beauty and Concussion which did very little business. 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Jonwo

[Cmasterclay]

Next year will be a good year to test draw power for a few people.  Dr. Doolittle is a test for RDJ. Once Upon in Time in Hollywood is a test for Leo (though that is more a matter of big vs. huge). Gemini Man is a test for Will Smith. Just Mercy seems inevitable to get moved to December, and that's another test for Jordan. Ad Astra could be a test for Pitt. Jungle Cruise is another good test for the Rock. Hell, even for less starry actors in more franchise films, there's a little test. MIB breaking out would show added value for Hemsworth in non-Thor roles, potentially. 

[Nova]

Since franchises have now taken over, I think the traditional sense of a "draw" is long gone. If you need to star in franchise films in order to have successful box office results and that doesn't translate over to your non-franchise films, then to me you're not a draw. 

 

Anyways there are folks like Bullock, Leo, Denzel etc that can still have the traditional draw impact or whatever but now a days how I determine whether someone is actually a benefit box office wise to their film is simple: is their movie a box office success or is it not. And yes budget plays a role in that but in my mind a studio wouldnt spend X amount of money on a film starring X actor/actress if they didn't feel like that person could make their film money (I am talking about non-franchises btw in this case) So if the movie ends up performing badly, then X actor/actress wasn't actually worth the budget of their film. I also look at consistency in the box office for said actor, just in case they maybe benefiting from someone else in the cast or said film is an outlier. For example, Kevin Hart is always good for a $20M+ debut. I know for the most part exactly what type of box office gross a film starring Kevin Hart is gonna do. So to me Kevin Hart is a draw simply because he consistently puts butts in the theater. They may not be cinematic events or whatever but his films are for the most part are box office successes. 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Nova

[a2k]

3 hours ago, RealLyre said:

Gavin Feng said Venom could potentially hit 100M in China

That's great. And after a 125+ OS-China opening weekend it should do more than 290 OS-China I have used as that requires only 2.3x multi.

 

190 Dom + 310 OS-China + 100 China = 600 WW 

EDIT: France and Japan remaining too.

Edited October 7, 2018 by a2k

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Since franchises have now taken over, I think the traditional sense of a "draw" is long gone. Sure folks like Bullock, Leo, Denzel etc can still have the traditional draw impact or whatever but now a days how I determine whether someone is actually a benefit box office wise to their film is simple: is their movie a box office success or is it not. And yes budget plays a role in that but in my mind a studio wouldnt spend X amount of money on a film starring X actor/actress if they didn't feel like that person could make their film money (I am talking about non-franchises btw in this case) So if the movie ends up performing badly, then X actor/actress wasn't actually worth the budget of their film. I also look at consistency in the box office for said actor, just in case they maybe benefiting from someone else in the cast or said film is an outlier. For example, Kevin Hart is always good for a $20M+ debut. I know for the most part exactly what type of box office gross a film starring Kevin Hart is gonna do. So to me Kevin Hart is a draw simply because he consistently puts butts in the theater. They may not be cinematic events or whatever but his films are for the most part are box office successes. 

The Upside will be interesting because it's not a typical Kevin Hart film so whether his fanbase will turn out for it remains to be seen. 

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Next year will be a good year to test draw power for a few people.  Dr. Doolittle is a test for RDJ. Once Upon in Time in Hollywood is a test for Leo (though that is more a matter of big vs. huge). Gemini Man is a test for Will Smith. Just Mercy seems inevitable to get moved to December, and that's another test for Jordan. Ad Astra could be a test for Pitt. Jungle Cruise is another good test for the Rock. Hell, even for less starry actors in more franchise films, there's a little test. MIB breaking out would show added value for Hemsworth in non-Thor roles, potentially. 

They moved Doolittle up to 2020. With that and Holmes 3, RDJ got two tests.

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The Upside will be interesting because it's not a typical Kevin Hart film so whether his fanbase will turn out for it remains to be seen. 

 

 

I'm really curious to how Upside will do. On the one hand Cranston still has his fans (my dad really wants to see it) and Hart has his, and Les Intouchables arguably has its own as well (albiet a small group). Wonder if they'll end up showing up. 

 

As of right now I'm thinking like 16/45 but I could see it going a bit higher. 

[GraceRandolph]

In my opinion it’s about casting the right actor for the right role eg. Angelina Jolie in a action movie. 

[filmlover]

I got the trailer for The Upside before A Star is Born yesterday and heard a few seniors around me saying that they want to see it when it was over. I could see it becoming a sleeper hit in what looks to be a mostly barren January besides Glass and Oscar holdovers.

[TMP]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Granted I tend to roll with younger/more diverse/more progressive crowds but all my friends just love the dude. His posts on Instagram all catch fire and he's on every magazine cover there is. I just happen to think the dude is a draw. I'd say like pretty much every non Leo or Rock draw he's value added, where he needs the right role and part. But in terms of male draws in Hollywood, I say it is Leo, Rock, Denzel, Cruise, Hart, Cooper, Jackman, Hanks....and then Jordan is right there with the best of the rest. I think people saying that Pitt or Will Smith or George Clooney or Johnny Depp are big draws outside of certain perfect roles in the year 2018 are kinda kidding themselves. 

idk if I've ever seen a human being say they're excited to see "the new Bradley Cooper film". Dude just seems to be attached to the right projects at the right time [Limitless might be the outlier here tho]

[Firepower]

The character is too niche, they said. Trailer views/likes mean nothing, they said. History repeats itself, people never learn.

Edited October 7, 2018 by Firepower