Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

[Porthos]

Just now, Maggie said:

They are probably meaning reactions after the premiere. You can't really stop these. I don't know when the review embargo stops

 

Actually I think I answered my own question as after re-reading I think "so it's no surprise of the embargo is dropped early" was a typo for "so it's no surprise if the embargo is dropped early"

 

Just people started to run with the idea that the embargo might be lifted early and whether or not that would matter, and I wanted to nip that in the bud before it took too deep of a root.

[hw64]

16 hours ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Literally the only reason people use inflation is so they have an excuse to dog on a movie they hate/want to fail even further.

 

This is an absurd stance — inflation is not merely a fanboy 'gotcha' or an agenda-driven tool for unnecessary negativity as you seem to want to claim. It has nothing to do with those things: ticket price inflation is a fact, and taking it into consideration is an absolute necessity if you want to attempt to objectively evaluate and compare the performances of movies released more than a few years apart, or predict the performance of an upcoming movie based on past comparables. The idea that its sole purpose is for fanboy argument-winning or for dogging on a particular movie's performance is no more credible than if you'd have made that same claim about any other factor that affects box office gross, like competition, critical or audience reception, exchange rates, which countries a movie releases in, etc.

 

And the idea that inflation is "literally" only brought up to paint a certain movie's performance in a negative light is ridiculous — case in point, ticket price inflation is often brought up in the Avatar thread, because again it's an imperative consideration when trying to predict Avatar 2's performance given the decade between it and the original film. And if Avatar 2 makes more than Avatar, then I'll be the first to say that it probably wasn't as big as the original film, because its run will have been helped significantly by over a decade of ticket price inflation and overseas market expansion. Neither of these things have anything to do with fanboyism or dogging on a particular movie; inflation consideration is merely being used as a tool to assist with accurate prediction, or in the pursuit of an objective analysis of a box office run.

 

I mean, exchange rates are often brought up in fanboy arguments — especially Endgame vs. Avatar ones — but I'm not ringing the alarm and claiming that exchange rate considerations are bad because they're "literally" only used to disparage Avatar's performance, like I could based on the same line of reasoning as your own. Because much like ticket price inflation, exchange rate differences between movies are simply a fact, and they cannot simply be ignored or argued away because it's inconvenient or not to your liking, or because they're used to (correctly) contextualize a certain movie's run in a way that doesn't suit you.

 

In fact, you haven't actually made any logical arguments against inflation considerations in your post, you've just tried to paint those that bring it up as being agenda-driven, and the implication that you seemingly want people to draw from that is that the consideration of inflation itself is a bad thing (if not, then what on Earth are you trying to say?) Again, inflation considerations are perfectly valid and indeed necessary for comparing the performances of movies released more than a few years apart, because ticket prices domestically have doubled over the past 20 to 25 years, tripled over the past 30 to 35, and increased by somewhere around 20% over the past few years alone, and it is therefore an indisputable fact that ticket price inflation has an extremely significant impact on unadjusted box office gross.

 

Your position on this is so misguided that I'm very surprised that it's coming from someone with over 28,000 posts on a dedicated box office forum. Anyway, this is getting quite off topic, so this is the last post I'll make on the subject in this thread — I think I've made my point.

Edited October 6, 2022 by hw64

[dudalb]

4 hours ago, expensiveho said:

People do realize that inflation + recession isn't good for box-office, right? 

A lot of people don't beleive it or not.

Has to do with demos; if you are young and single (ie most of the posters here), you are hurt by inflation, yes, but not to the extent people with famalies are.

And the entertainment budget if the first thing that gets cut back on.

Thing ab out inflation is it's not just higher ticket prices, it's that the cost of  necessities is going mean you have lass to spend on entertaiment. People are going to be a lot more choosy.

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by dudalb

[jedijake]

I go back and forth about whether I think T'Challa should have been recast. Sure, John David Washington (and others) could have made a great T'challa, depending on whether he or someone else could do the voice. However, I understand and am good with the decision not to do it. It's a tough call. They could have waited a few more years and then recast him. I also fully understand that there will be a LOT of people who just won't see the movie because Black Panther and T'Challa are synonomous (despite that others have had the mantle including Shuri). It's going to be tough. I hope that people who honestly and genuinely review the movie do so for its own merit and not for what they would want them to do about casting.

 

As for all this inflation stuff, let's hope we don't look at a $450 million domestic and say "oh that is really a 45-50% drop from the first one, not a 36% drop". If we factor in inflation for adjusted money, we HAVE to consider that less people can actually afford to go to the movies. That's why I find issue with too much emphasis on it.

 

And profit? That's for the studios to deal with.

Edited October 5, 2022 by jedijake

[Grebacio]

8 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Early embargo drop and premiere don't mean shit. There were other movies that did that and BOT said "it's sign of confidence" and it didn't work out all that well. 

*cough* cough* Eternals

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

*cough* cough* Eternals

 

Right? I wasn't sure if it was Eternals that had "confidence" (according to fans not the studio) early embargo drop and/or premiere but now that you confirmed it, yep. 

 

In opposite case, if my mmemory is correct Candyman had super late embargo drop yet it got strong reviews and boxoffice.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Valonqar

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Right? I wasn't sure if it was Eternals that had "confidence" (according to fans not the studio) early embargo drop and/or premiere but now that you confirmed it, yep. 

 

In opposite case, if my mmemory is correct Candyman had super late embargo drop yet it got strong reviews and boxoffice.

 

 

Outliers don't disprove general trends, usually earlier embargo drops mean stronger reviews. Although it's not clear to me that the embargo will actually drop early, Thor 4 had its premiere two weeks before release but didn't allow full reviews until 3 days before. 

[Nikostar]

14 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

*cough* cough* Eternals

Cough cough Black Panther.  If I'm not mistaking No Way Home and Shang Chi released reviews early as well. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Nikostar

[dudalb]

AH, fanboy logic.

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

Outliers don't disprove general trends, usually earlier embargo drops mean stronger reviews. Although it's not clear to me that the embargo will actually drop early, Thor 4 had its premiere two weeks before release but didn't allow full reviews until 3 days before. 

 

I'm sure that the movie isn't a dud (I wasn't impressed with reliable leaks but they are not like watching a movie) but fans go overboard with reading tea from premiere and embargo dates which are still mostly schedule driven. 

[Nikostar]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Outliers don't disprove general trends, usually earlier embargo drops mean stronger reviews. Although it's not clear to me that the embargo will actually drop early, Thor 4 had its premiere two weeks before release but didn't allow full reviews until 3 days before. 

Right and we see why reviews for Thor was held. If Disney drops the embargo early for this film it's because they know they have a winner like the first film.

[dudalb]

20 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I go back and forth about whether I think T'Challa should have been recast. Sure, John David Washington (and others) could have made a great T'challa, depending on whether he or someone else could do the voice. However, I understand and am good with the decision not to do it. It's a tough call. They could have waited a few more years and then recast him. I also fully understand that there will be a LOT of people who just won't see the movie because Black Panther and T'Challa are synonomous (despite that others have had the mantle including Shuri). It's going to be tough. I hope that people who honestly and genuinely review the movie do so for its own merit and not for what they would want them to do about casting.

 

As for all this inflation stuff, let's hope we don't look at a $450 million domestic and say "oh that is really a 45-50% drop from the first one, not a 36% drop". If we factor in inflation for adjusted money, we HAVE to consider that less people can actually afford to go to the movies. That's why I find issue with too much emphasis on it.

 

And profit? That's for the studios to deal with.

And if Marvel had recast Tchalla they would have gotten hell for "disrespecting" CHadwick.

Folks, Marvel was just dealt a horrible hand with the Death of  Boseman, and there were really no good solution.

I have no idea of what the movie will be like. I will show up , of course. have not missed a Marvel Studiio movie yet..

But  I always thought a Wakanda based movie without The Black Panther was always iffy at the box office. That is the iriony; it could be a really good movie and sitll underperfrom because no Boseman.

Don't know any profound c omment on this except "SHit Happens".

 

 

[dudalb]

8 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Right and we see why reviews for Thor was held. If Disney drops the embargo early for this film it's because they know they have a winner like the first film.

Sorry, still  think even if the film gets a good reception, the abscence of Boseman will hurt it a lot .

[WittyUsername]

13 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Cough cough Black Panther.  If I'm not mistaking No Way Home and Shang Chi released reviews early as well. 

Nah, NWH had its reviews posted a day or two before release. Sony was trying to keep the movie under wraps as much as possible. It’s the same strategy Disney did with TFA and EG. 

[Valonqar]

Indeed and their reasonsing was that they didn't want spoilers out, not lack of faith. Heck, TFA even forfeit awards run to protect spoilers so they didn't send out screeners. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Valonqar

[Cooper Legion]

7 hours ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Literally the only reason people use inflation is so they have an excuse to dog on a movie they hate/want to fail even further.

Jesus man, this is so far off the mark. The reason many people use inflation is TO BE MORE FUCKING ACCURATE 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Legion By Night

[ChipDerby]

I'd imagine embargo dates are decided primarily on when the studio actually schedules a premiere + intl release dates + if they know it's REAL bad + spoilers.

 

As for the newest trailer, it was fine. Seems like the first two trailers give off a real heavy vibe, and since it's Marvel I know it's not going to be that. So idk how to feel besides I'd love to see Aquaman show up other water dude.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

20 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Jesus man, this is so far off the mark. The reason many people use inflation is TO BE MORE FUCKING ACCURATE 

Keep in mind that he doesn’t have time to pay attention to that.

[keysersoze123]

When we used to post long back threads in box office forums is for BO prediction and there would be separate threads to argue other things elsewhere. We should have inflation based threads as well to see if Movie BO is keeping up with inflation :-)

 

That said with 3 days of presales I am predicting 27m previews/160-170 / 390-430 domestic / 475-500m OS / 865-930m WW. Let us see how presales go and I will update my prediction. :-)

Edited October 6, 2022 by keysersoze123

[Factcheck]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

When we used to post long back threads in box office forums is for BO prediction and there would be separate threads to argue other things elsewhere. We should have inflation based threads as well to see if Movie BO is keeping up with inflation 🙂

 

That said with 3 days of presales I am predicting 27m previews/160-170 / 390-430 domestic / 475-500m OS / 865-930m WW. Let us see how presales go and I will update my prediction. 🙂

3 days presales are on par with L&T or under L&T? With 170M OW I predict 475M-500M dom total as WOM will be much better than L&T.