Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

[keysersoze123]

31 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

3 days presales are on par with L&T or under L&T? With 170M OW I predict 475M-500M dom total as WOM will be much better than L&T.

it does not matter. With a mature fan base, these movies will be frontloaded. Its a sequel after all. Plus week days in Nov/Dec sucks minus the thanksgiving week and late december holidays are too far into its run to make a big difference. 

 

Its a prediction at this point. i will update if the situations change. 

[Liiviig 1998]

November legs always muted even with Thanksgiving

 

Ragnarok did 2.5ish legs.

 

DS did 2.7

 

If this is going to explode ,it will be in presales and OW. Christmas holiday seems a little to far off and yeah avatar will dominate everything that period.

 

Thor had a good final week for 29m previews

 

Think BPWF will have the same .

 

30-35m previews . IM will depend on reception. 170-190m+ OW

 

425-500M+ Dom

 

Under 400m domestic club though definitely won't happen doesn't seem all that ridiculous as it was months ago.

 

2022 has been quite an eye opening year for mcu box office. It's not quite critic proof as I thought it would be.

 

Chadwick loss maybe hurting it more than expected. But let's wait and see how presales progress.

 

 

[Saul Goodman]

November is a bad but Marvel somehow loves sticking with it. This should have had that release date of Ant-Man 3.

[jedijake]

They NEED to start pumping up the ad campaign. Start pushing out tons of TV spots, highway banners, web browser banners, etc. Put out ads all over the place and make this REAL. Can't rely on WOM alone and an announcement on a trailer that was dropped without any real notice. Gotta make this thing an EVENT!

 

But the reason we will probably see a muted market push is because of Chapek.

 

If this gets really good reviews and falls short of $500 million, ESPECIALLY below $450 million, I blame the marketing and advertising.

Edited October 6, 2022 by jedijake

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

They NEED to start pumping up the ad campaign. Start pushing out tons of TV spots, highway banners, web browser banners, etc. Put out ads all over the place and make this REAL. Can't rely on WOM alone and an announcement on a trailer that was dropped without any real notice. Gotta make this thing an EVENT!

 

But the reason we will probably see a muted market push is because of Chapek.

 

If this gets really good reviews and falls short of $500 million, ESPECIALLY below $450 million, I blame the marketing and advertising.

It will get enough marketing. If it disappoints at the BO, it's because of a lack of excitement and interest.

[cmbbox2390]

5 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

November legs always muted even with Thanksgiving

 

Ragnarok did 2.5ish legs.

 

DS did 2.7

 

If this is going to explode ,it will be in presales and OW. Christmas holiday seems a little to far off and yeah avatar will dominate everything that period.

 

Thor had a good final week for 29m previews

 

Think BPWF will have the same .

 

30-35m previews . IM will depend on reception. 170-190m+ OW

 

425-500M+ Dom

 

Under 400m domestic club though definitely won't happen doesn't seem all that ridiculous as it was months ago.

 

2022 has been quite an eye opening year for mcu box office. It's not quite critic proof as I thought it would be.

 

Chadwick loss maybe hurting it more than expected. But let's wait and see how presales progress.

 

 

 

5 hours ago, Saul Goodman said:

November is a bad but Marvel somehow loves sticking with it. This should have had that release date of Ant-Man 3.

February was a bad month too until Deadpool and Black Panther came along.
 

This is a will probably be the biggest movie to ever come out in November. If the movie gets good word of mouth, the legs will be great no matter what. There will be virtually no competition for a whole month.

Thor: Ragnarok had to contend with Justice League in its 3rd weekend and it recovered after that with a 22% drop in its fourth weekend.

 

Doctor Strange had to compete with Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in its 3rd weekend as well and it dropped 23% the next weekend.

 

There are no big movies competing with BPWF until Avatar: The Way of Water six weeks later.

Edited October 6, 2022 by cmbbox2390

[cmbbox2390]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

They NEED to start pumping up the ad campaign. Start pushing out tons of TV spots, highway banners, web browser banners, etc. Put out ads all over the place and make this REAL. Can't rely on WOM alone and an announcement on a trailer that was dropped without any real notice. Gotta make this thing an EVENT!

 

But the reason we will probably see a muted market push is because of Chapek.

 

If this gets really good reviews and falls short of $500 million, ESPECIALLY below $450 million, I blame the marketing and advertising.

Don’t forget the Black Panther: Wakanda Forever album will get tons of coverage and create hype as well. 

[jedijake]

19 minutes ago, cmbbox2390 said:

Don’t forget the Black Panther: Wakanda Forever album will get tons of coverage and create hype as well. 

When does that come out? First day digital buy for me!

 

Thor4 had continued competition from JWD and TGM and had a "mixed" reception. BPWF really needs to destroy Thor4's OW by a good margin.

[Liiviig 1998]

26 minutes ago, cmbbox2390 said:

 

February was a bad month too until Deadpool and Black Panther came along.
 

This is a will probably be the biggest movie to ever come out in November. If the movie gets good word of mouth, the legs will be great no matter what. There will be virtually no competition for a whole month.

Thor: Ragnarok had to contend with Justice League in its 3rd weekend and it recovered after that with a 22% drop in its fourth weekend.

 

Doctor Strange had to compete with Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in its 3rd weekend as well and it dropped 23% the next weekend.

 

There are no big movies competing with BPWF until Avatar: The Way of Water six weeks later.

Traditionally blockbusters that release early November always have muted legs due to muted weekdays . It has nothing much to do with competition.

 

Ragnarok would have recovered fine with justice league.

 

Most movies that benefit from strong November legs tend to be around Thanksgiving  were there close to the festive window.

 

Adding to that this is a sequel ,it is bound to be front loaded .

 

If the hype builds up ,will see that effect on the presales and OW walk-ups.

 

 

 

First movie was a WOM cultural zeitgeist movie.

 

Only sequels I've seen replicate legs are usually animated/family films.

 

 

 

[filmlover]

Don't know if anyone else has mentioned this but this is being locked in for IMAX and most PLF screens (Strange World will be at least splitting Dolby shows for Thanksgiving weekend) for the first three weeks based on showtime schedules posted. There is a possible chance that this is #1 until Avatar comes out with how barren the schedule is unless Strange World and/or Violent Night really overperform.

[jedijake]

This should have NO problem being #1 until Avatar.

 

Btw, are mid-week numbers in November and December really any worse than mid-week numbers in early May?

[Factcheck]

I'm waiting for BOP's long range forecast coming tomorrow or next week. I'll go with its higher end projection.

[TwoMisfits]

24 minutes ago, jedijake said:

This should have NO problem being #1 until Avatar.

 

Btw, are mid-week numbers in November and December really any worse than mid-week numbers in early May?

 

Yes, b/c colleges and early K-12 departures start helping by the 2nd week of May and continue improving as things go...this doesn't happen til 3rd week of December...

Edited October 6, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[jedijake]

53 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Yes, b/c colleges and early K-12 departures start helping by the 2nd week of May and continue improving as things go...this doesn't happen til 3rd week of December...

Makes sense.

 

Next question: will Veterans Day cause an elevated proper Friday? Looking back at charts, most movies have seen a jump in Veterans Day. That alone may be enough to push it above $200 million.

[cmbbox2390]

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Traditionally blockbusters that release early November always have muted legs due to muted weekdays . It has nothing much to do with competition.

 

Ragnarok would have recovered fine with justice league.

 

Most movies that benefit from strong November legs tend to be around Thanksgiving  were there close to the festive window.

 

Adding to that this is a sequel ,it is bound to be front loaded .

 

If the hype builds up ,will see that effect on the presales and OW walk-ups.

 

 

 

First movie was a WOM cultural zeitgeist movie.

 

Only sequels I've seen replicate legs are usually animated/family films.

 

 

 

You mean to tell me if Justice League didn’t release on Thor: Ragnarok third weekend, the multiplier wouldn’t been much better?

 

Like I mentioned, T4 recovered after that 62% drop, but you can’t tell me JL didn’t hurt when it opened. I think it could’ve went pass $340M+ without JL.

[cmbbox2390]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

When does that come out? First day digital buy for me!

 

Thor4 had continued competition from JWD and TGM and had a "mixed" reception. BPWF really needs to destroy Thor4's OW by a good margin.

Not sure. Probably a week prior to release like the last one did.

[Maggie]

How much do the previews need to be for this to open to 200M?

[Saul Goodman]

5 hours ago, jedijake said:

They NEED to start pumping up the ad campaign. Start pushing out tons of TV spots, highway banners, web browser banners, etc. Put out ads all over the place and make this REAL. Can't rely on WOM alone and an announcement on a trailer that was dropped without any real notice. Gotta make this thing an EVENT!

 

But the reason we will probably see a muted market push is because of Chapek.

 

If this gets really good reviews and falls short of $500 million, ESPECIALLY below $450 million, I blame the marketing and advertising.

I know, right? Chapek era marketing has been mediocre at best. They need to get those clips and BTS features out like they used to do earlier. It seems like they took internet's complaints of "don't show too much in marketing!" a bit seriously lol.

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

How much do the previews need to be for this to open to 200M?

At least $31-32M, I would say. BP1 hit $25M for $202M OW but that was also with a holiday Monday. Add in the fact that MCU films are more front-loaded now than in 2018, and I imagine we’re looking at 6-6.5x previews for the weekend.

[Factcheck]

24 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

At least $31-32M, I would say. BP1 hit $25M for $202M OW but that was also with a holiday Monday. Add in the fact that MCU films are more front-loaded now than in 2018, and I imagine we’re looking at 6-6.5x previews for the weekend.

But NWH & MoM did 5.2x and L&T did 5x, so why WF would do 6-6.5x of Thursday previews?

Edited October 6, 2022 by Factcheck