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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

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47 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

His 184M OW prediction itself says that he assuming movie will be more walks up heavy than previous 2 MCU movies, so 2.8x of OW is definitely possible if movie does 184M OW with 30M previews.

Ragnarok 2.58*

Dr strange 2.7*

Catching fire  2 .7ish*

 

And both those had good reception. Weekdays in November always mute the legs.

 

And it's to far from Christmas to benefit much from the period.

 

So yeah 2.8* is a little bit optimistic.

 

 

 

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a 2.8X is not far fetched at all if it has good weekend holds until Avatar and then also has decent mid-week numbers during Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Years holidays.

 

People talk about the movie being sad. Sure this will hit on a real-life nerve. But remember Infinity War, End Game, and NWH had their share of sadness as well. 

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13 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Mixed?

You may need to look at the video below. These are far from mixed.

 

https://youtu.be/wsEpCE_4W0Q

Yeah looks mixed to me. @Ericstein's Monster @Cap please make the necessary change to thread title.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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A few of the video reactions I’ve watched seem…muted. Hard to tell if it’s because the movie was sad or if it’s because their reaction isn’t actually as positive as their tweets?

 

Kristina Harloff for example sounds over the moon in his tweet and in his video looks bored and says “oh well that’s just initial thoughts, I’ll review it later”. 
 

Curious…

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3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

a 2.8X is not far fetched at all if it has good weekend holds until Avatar and then also has decent mid-week numbers during Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Years holidays.

 

People talk about the movie being sad. Sure this will hit on a real-life nerve. But remember Infinity War, End Game, and NWH had their share of sadness as well. 

The same movies I've mentioned all had the same benefit of Thanksgiving/Christmas.

 

NWH is literally a Christmas release

 

IW and EG had 2.6* and 2.4* legs respectively behave like any sequel which is always way more front loaded.

 

There is a way box office behaves in spring,summer and winter . Early nov releases  have a specific consistent behavior and not saying a movie can't change things up. Most in most cases they tend to be first movie in a franchise or an original film and ofcorse animation.

 

This is a sequel . More fan rush on OW .

 

210*2.5 is more plausible than 185*2.8.

 

Avatar is direct competition to BPWF . It's gonna be a plf monster. 

 

6 weeks is enough time for a marvel movie to make it's money ESp this being a sequel.  It's too far to benefit adequately from the Christmas window .

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TheScarecrow said:

A few of the video reactions I’ve watched seem…muted. Hard to tell if it’s because the movie was sad or if it’s because their reaction isn’t actually as positive as their tweets?

 

Kristina Harloff for example sounds over the moon in his tweet and in his video looks bored and says “oh well that’s just initial thoughts, I’ll review it later”. 
 

Curious…

I watched his video as well and he seemed pretty enthusiastic to me, the tone of the reactions isn't going to be the same as something like NWH but he spoke very positively of it.

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13 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

If this is what we call mixed every other cbm released this year would be considered shit tier garbage based on initial reactions 

 

Ummm, that wouldn't be far from the truth...it's been a bad year for supers...with (IMHO) 2 still flawed movies being the best of the bunch and the rest being below average to atrocious (hi Morbius and Thor)...

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My take from reactions:

 

Expecting BPWF to score well well on RT, from critics and audiences alike. But I do wonder if the inherent sadness, even if woven into the story beautifully (from circumstances beyond their control),  doesn't pull it more into the "like" rather than "love" range. Its just more difficult to excited/hyped over a story that - by necessity - is at least part tragedy

 

The one comment that compared it to war epic seems apt, in that like a historical story, the ending is already somewhat known. Unlike Endgame post-snap for example, we know going in there isn't going to be a triumphant return.

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