Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[WorkingonaName]

watch it get TLJ legs. 

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, WorkingonaName said:

watch it get TLJ legs. 

No that's basically impossible unless it's like 10% RT/C- CinemaScore levels of awful

[BadOlCatSylvester]

6 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I know what you're trying to say by putting the Mortal Engines gif (holidays do not guarantee good legs if the movie is bad) BUT 4.0x-ish is the floor unless it's Morbius level bad purely because this calendar placement specifically is really over-powered for legs. Basically the OW itself is deflated by Christmas eve and every day from Christmas to New Year's is a basically a weekend day. It is functionally impossible to collapse with this release date.

 

Also. . so what's your prediction OW DOM and WW for Aquaman 2 if it's good and if it's bad? I remember back in September you were like "going under The Flash is possible" and that looks quite likely now. 

If it's good or at least gets positive word of mouth, then I can see it opening to around $30M and reaching the $150M mark domestically, with a $450M finish worldwide. But if it's poorly received then it'll open to around $25M and finish at around $70M to $75M domestically, with a worldwide finish of around $300M at the most. Even in the best case scenario I don't see it making even half as much money as the first one did, as that one was released during a completely different era.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

If it's good or at least gets positive word of mouth, then I can see it opening to around $30M and reaching the $150M mark domestically, with a $450M finish worldwide. But if it's poorly received then it'll open to around $25M and finish at around $70M to $75M domestically, with a worldwide finish of around $300M at the most. Even in the best case scenario I don't see it making even half as much money as the first one did, as that one was released during a completely different era.

At this point they would probably be happy or at least content with a  150/450 split. 

[Super]

18 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Again:

Mortal Engines didn’t even get to benefit from the holidays, it was out of the top 10 in its second weekend and out of the top 15 by Christmas Day, it’s clearly an anomaly more than being close to being replicated at the box office. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Super
Omitted a word

[Bob Train]

18 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Again:

Mortal Engines was out of theaters by the time the true peak of the Holidays hit. Aquaman 2, no matter how low it goes, will still be the biggest actioner of the holidays and have most PLFs locked in, so there is no way it can lose as many screens, it's not like 2018 where there was Aquaman, Spider-Verse, Mary Poppins, Bumblebee etc. 

[TigerPaw]

43 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Mortal Engines was out of theaters by the time the true peak of the Holidays hit. Aquaman 2, no matter how low it goes, will still be the biggest actioner of the holidays and have most PLFs locked in, so there is no way it can lose as many screens, it's not like 2018 where there was Aquaman, Spider-Verse, Mary Poppins, Bumblebee etc. 

Am still not sure why WB dated Wonka just 1 week before Aquaman. Wonka could have opened this weekend and have 2 weeks of PLFs..

 

[Mojoguy]

21 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Am still not sure why WB dated Wonka just 1 week before Aquaman. Wonka could have opened this weekend and have 2 weeks of PLFs..

 

3 movies are opening wide on Christmas day, and they will take all the screens that don't belong to Aquaman and Wonka.

 

WB wants Wonka to have full theater count for Christmas week. Films keep maximum amount of screens for 2 weeks, so Wonka is being protected with that date.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Mojoguy

[MovieMan89]

I think maybe it’s more possible for this to bomb like TM despite holiday than I thought if TCP, Migration, and Wonka are all going to pull nice numbers. I was only banking on Wonka before, but now seems all 3 have potential. None are direct comp necessarily, but still all doing well would be a good amount of butts in seats for this to then Mortal Engines so to speak.

[Super]

9 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think maybe it’s more possible for this to bomb like TM despite holiday than I thought if TCP, Migration, and Wonka are all going to pull nice numbers. I was only banking on Wonka before, but now seems all 3 have potential. None are direct comp necessarily, but still all doing well would be a good amount of butts in seats for this to then Mortal Engines so to speak.

What potential is Migration showing? 

[Issac Newton]

China

 

Well, I can't say about WOM, but even if does, "Aquaman &The Lost Kingdom" have 10-Days of free run. A local release "Shining For One Thing" scheduled for 12/30 (New Year Release), is patching PS so strong just next to "Detective Chinatown 3".

 

FYI, "Detective Chinatown 3" debuted with $400M back in 2021 Spring Festival, defeating "Avengers: Endgame" record of $357M (April 2019)

Edited December 5, 2023 by Issac Newton

[MovieMan89]

9 hours ago, Super said:

What potential is Migration showing? 

Mostly the early rumblings it might be a quality high mark from them. Plus never count out Illumination to start with. Basically the only time their animated movies haven’t been a big box office hit was Sing 2 during the pandemic, which also still did really well considering the circumstances. 

[HummingLemon496]

9 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

China

 

Well, I can't say about WOM, but even if does, "Aquaman &The Lost Kingdom" have 10-Days of free run. A local release "Shining For One Thing" scheduled for 12/30 (New Year Release), is patching PS so strong just next to "Detective Chinatown 3".

 

FYI, "Detective Chinatown 3" debuted with $400M back in 2021 Spring Festival, defeating "Avengers: Endgame" record of $357M (April 2019)

[toutvabien]

Did WB forgot they have this coming out on the 22nd?

[Arlborn]

49 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

Did WB forgot they have this coming out on the 22nd?

They're probably focusing more on Wonka as their biggest possible hit of this season to be honest.

 

But also, I imagine it isn't easy to organize press stuff for this movie considering the whole Amber Heard thing, as well as awkward questions about the death of this cinematic universe and the future of Aquaman himself.

 

But I imagine we'll soon see some stuff with Jason Momoa and Patrick Wilson together.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

4 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

They're probably focusing more on Wonka as their biggest possible hit of this season to be honest.

 

But also, I imagine it isn't easy to organize press stuff for this movie considering the whole Amber Heard thing, as well as awkward questions about the death of this cinematic universe and the future of Aquaman himself.

 

But I imagine we'll soon see some stuff with Jason Momoa and Patrick Wilson together.

I doubt they'll even bother with a press tour. At most you'll see Jason Momoa appear in talkshows since he's got Minecraft coming up for Warner and I imagine they want to still have a relationship with him, especially in the event the Lobo rumours are true.

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, toutvabien said:

Did WB forgot they have this coming out on the 22nd?

 

The Marvels redux. Both studios completely abandoned their CBMs.

[filmlover]

Both this and The Marvels actually began filming in the summer of 2021 for holiday 2022 release dates that they would both end up missing by a year in the end. One of those "they made sense at the time they began filming but no longer did by the time they were released" situations. Still gonna sting that these characters went from box office titans to afterthoughts within the span of five years (that feel a lot longer due to everything that's happened in the world since their theatrical runs) but that's the unpredictable nature of showbiz for ya.

[ChipDerby]

This is why nobody should show any loyalty to their employer/any company. The creatives that worked on these films made Disney/WB billions, were tasked to make a sequel, and the companies just abandoned them. These suits don't care about anyone but themselves and their own bottom line.

[TMP]

26 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

This is why nobody should show any loyalty to their employer/any company. The creatives that worked on these films made Disney/WB billions, were tasked to make a sequel, and the companies just abandoned them. These suits don't care about anyone but themselves and their own bottom line.

I was talking to someone yesterday who did finance at WB during the Tsujihara years and he said the corporate culture from the top-down was just appalling. Sometimes team composition is more important than the quality of each team member, so I think it's more-so a case-by-case basis - telling someone to not show loyalty to any employer is an easy way to kneecap their growth lol