CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[cdsacken]

19 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

7.4 isn’t crazy frontloaded or anything considering the Endgame factor. I think the appetite was there for 165+ if it was widely received as being in the top third of MCU movies compared to the “good, but 40th-50th percentile” reactions I’ve seen a lot of.      

 

In the end this is a very strong debut for a new character, and it really went bonkers overseas. Can’t complain too much about being some % short of sky high hopes.

Yep. Good film could have been way better but not mediocre either. 

[tawasal]

24 minutes ago, LouisianaArkansasGeorgia said:

Is there any list that collects MCU films' percentage/numerical rise from OW estimates to actuals? How would CM rank there?

Black Panther

BV

$192,023,000

$202,003,951

$+9,980,951

+5.2%

 

Marvel's The Avengers

BV

$200,300,000

$207,438,708

$+7,138,708

+3.6%

 

Avengers: Infinity War

BV

$250,000,000

$257,698,183

$+7,698,183

+3.1%

 

Avengers: Age of Ultron

BV

$187,656,000

$191,271,109

$+3,615,109

+1.9%

 

The Incredible Hulk

Uni.

$54,538,000

$55,414,050

$+876,050

+1.6%

 

Thor: Ragnarok

BV

$121,005,000

$122,744,989

$+1,739,989

+1.4%

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

BV

$145,049,000

$146,510,104

$+1,461,104

+1.0%

 

Captain Marvel

BV

$153,000,000     $153,433,423    $+433,423   +0.3%

 

Guardians of the Galaxy

BV

$94,000,000

$94,320,883

$+320,883

+0.3%

 

Doctor Strange

BV

$84,989,000

$85,058,311

$+69,311

+0.1%

 

Spider-Man: Homecoming

Sony

$117,015,000

$117,027,503

$+12,503

+0.0%

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp

BV

$76,030,000

$75,812,205

$-217,795

-0.3%

 

Thor: The Dark World

BV

$86,109,000

$85,737,841

$-371,159

-0.4%

 

Thor

Par.

$66,000,000

$65,723,338

$-276,662

-0.4%

 

Iron Man 3

BV

$175,300,000

$174,144,585

$-1,155,415

-0.7%

 

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

BV

$96,200,000

$95,023,721

$-1,176,279

-1.2%

 

Captain America: The First Avenger

Par.

$65,827,000

$65,058,524

$-768,476

-1.2%

 

Ant-Man

BV

$58,040,000

$57,225,526

$-814,474

-1.4%

 

Captain America: Civil War

BV

$181,791,000

$179,139,142

$-2,651,858

-1.5%

 

Iron Man

Par.

$100,750,000

$98,618,668

$-2,131,332

-2.1%

 

Iron Man 2

Par.

$133,600,000

$128,122,480

$-5,477,520

-4.1%

[john2000]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Probably normal just such a drastic change from Saturday. Black panther barely even dropped. Infinity war dropped 15.7%,  Antman and the Wasp dropped 21.3% with a much weaker opening.

 

Thor 3: 27.4%

Spiderman HC: 21.2% again a lot smaller open

Gotg3: 23.7% with a smaller opening

 

If it was 40.0 it wouldn't look that big despite that really being a relatively insignificant difference.

 

 

 

 

ant man 2 had  w worst multi same iw  so there is that and black pantehr was an anomally have you see many movie drop just 6% ?

[tawasal]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Probably normal just such a drastic change from Saturday. Black panther barely even dropped. Infinity war dropped 15.7%,  Antman and the Wasp dropped 21.3% with a much weaker opening.

 

Thor 3: 27.4%

Spiderman HC: 21.2% again a lot smaller open

Gotg3: 23.7% with a smaller opening

 

If it was 40.0 it wouldn't look that big despite that really being a relatively insignificant difference.

 

 

 

 

Black Panther was on a holiday weekend so the Sunday drop was softer than normal. 

 

AntMan 2 was on July. 

 

Thor 3 was on a holiday period. 

 

GOTG2 was on the first weekend of official summer period. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Probably normal just such a drastic change from Saturday. Black panther barely even dropped. Infinity war dropped 15.7%,  Antman and the Wasp dropped 21.3% with a much weaker opening.

 

Thor 3: 27.4%

Spiderman HC: 21.2% again a lot smaller open

Gotg3: 23.7% with a smaller opening

 

If it was 40.0 it wouldn't look that big despite that really being a relatively insignificant difference.

 

 

 

 

Thor 3 and GotG 2 are probably the best comps. Spider-Man was in the heart of summer which dampens Sunday drops. Ant-Man is the same as Spidey... July release. Black Panther's first Sunday immediately preceded a holiday.

Edited March 11, 2019 by JohnnyGossamer

[Taruseth]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Probably normal just such a drastic change from Saturday. Black panther barely even dropped. Infinity war dropped 15.7%,  Antman and the Wasp dropped 21.3% with a much weaker opening.

 

Thor 3: 27.4%

Spiderman HC: 21.2% again a lot smaller open

Gotg3: 23.7% with a smaller opening

 

If it was 40.0 it wouldn't look that big despite that really being a relatively insignificant difference.

 

 

 

 

Black Panther doesn't count, that opened over President's day (just a 33.2% drop from Sunday to Monday!)

Infinity War was absolutely gigantic (that normally lessens Sunday and Monday drops)

Antman and the Wasp was in Summer.

Thor 3 had a higher drop.

HC opened in Summer.

And GotG 2 wasn't that much better.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Thor 3 and GotG 2 are probably the best comps. Spider-Man was in the heart of summer which dampens Sunday drops. Ant-Man is the same as Spidey... July release. Black Panther's first Sunday immediately preceded a holiday.

thor 3 was also in holidays if i reacll correctly

[ZeeSoh]

The average prediction for Captain Marvel in the Derby (+mine) was 158 which is just 2.9% off. That is a remarkably close average

[cdsacken]

Of course I was adding those simply because they were marvel films which recently came out. I hope it does well the next 2 weeks. I'd love to see 400+/1.15B+. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Of course I was adding those simply because they were marvel films which recently came out. I hope it does well the next 2 weeks. I'd love to see 400+/1.15B+. 

it could hit this numbers if it plays like the typical marvel movie we will see

Edited March 11, 2019 by john2000

[tawasal]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Of course I was adding those simply because they were marvel films which recently came out. I hope it does well the next 2 weeks. I'd love to see 400+/1.15B+. 

I was just clarifying it for you, not meant to be mean or anything. 

[sfran43]

 

[Valonqar]

I think that Us could bite into CM audience somewhat cause horror attracts couples and teenagers (I know it's R but that never stopped teens from seeing them and I don't mean buy ticket for CM but sneak into Us) and I believe it'll open higher than current projection (35-40M). Reviews are super strong so far (not just 100% RT but when you actually read them) so that should help spread the buzz at least for OW. This is why I hesitate to predict no competition til Shazam or Dumbo whichever comes first. Us will be #1 movie that weekend. still, I stand by my opinion that over 400M dom total and 1.1B WW are happening. 

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I think that Us could bite into CM audience somewhat cause horror attracts couples and teenagers (I know it's R but that never stopped teens from seeing them and I don't mean buy ticket for CM but sneak into Us) and I believe it'll open higher than current projection (35-40M). Reviews are super strong so far (not just 100% RT but when you actually read them) so that should help spread the buzz at least for OW. This is why I hesitate to predict no competition til Shazam or Dumbo whichever comes first. Us will be #1 movie that weekend. still, I stand by my opinion that over 400M dom total and 1.1B WW are happening. 

we will have a better idea this weekend

[cdsacken]

10 minutes ago, tawasal said:

I was just clarifying it for you, not meant to be mean or anything. 

 

Figured as much, no worries at all. That weekend figure was incredible, no one can even pretend otherwise. Can't wait for End Game.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

Figured as much, no worries at all. That weekend figure was incredible, no one can even pretend otherwise. Can't wait for End Game.

yeah the tracking for endgame will be pain in the ass  in a good way

[sfran43]

 

[LouisianaArkansasGeorgia]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

 

Ever since she got booted out from marvel/disney she has been largely anti disney/MCU. She even led or spread conspiracies regarding bias against DC and towards Marvel. Hence her audience largely comprise of such fans and she panders to them. 

 

 

Really? I don't recall what was the last MCU film that she did not like and rave about.

 

[MikeQ]

Captain Marvel doesn't seem to be overly frontloaded so far, at least as far as the ratio of previews to weekend gross tells us. We might have expected previews to consist of a somewhat smaller percentage of the overall weekend gross for an origin film like Captain Marvel, but for such a huge weekend gross, previews tend to consist of a larger portion of that gross (perhaps due to high levels of anticipation). Additionally, preview grosses continue to grow in size, including for the MCU (which has now become a really established brand and draw in itself). Previews just 5 to 7 years ago (and earlier) consisted of a smaller proportion of the overall weekend gross, as can be seen looking at the top comic book film openings:

 

Best Opening Weekends for Comic Book Films & Share from Previews

 

Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights

1. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 257.7 million (15.1%)
2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (9.0%)
3. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (12.5%)
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (14.4%)
5. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (14.0%)
6. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (9.0%)
7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (16.7%)
8. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 160.9 million (19.0%)
9. The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (11.7%)
10. Captain Marvel (2019) — 153.4 million (13.5%)
11. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (6.6%)
12. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (11.6%)
13. Suicide Squad (2016) — 133.7 million (15.3%)
14. Deadpool (2016) — 132.4 million (9.6%)
15. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (5.9%)
16. Deadpool 2 (2018) — 125.5 million (14.8%)
17. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 121.0 million (12.0%)
18. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 117.0 million (13.2%)
19. Man of Steel (2013) — 116.6 million (7.7%)
20. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (6.1%)
21. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.1 million (10.7%)
22. X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (5.7%)
23. Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (5.1%)
24. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 95.0 million (10.7%)
25. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (11.9%)

Peace,

Mike

 

[Amorphous]

So technically Captain Marvel has the biggest opening weekend for an intro/origin film for a superhero ever, correct? Black Panther is an origin film but technically he had a big introduction in CA:CW.