US WEEKEND THREAD: Record 70.25 OW (highest grossing OW for an original horror)

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Out of reactions so thanks Porthos!

[TMP]

I'm not saying DAMN was a bad album, but it was no TPUB. That's what Us felt like compared to Get Out

[FilmBuff]

Damn the Hollywood reporter. They just had a massive spoiler in one of their Us articles. Be aware of their reviews. I was seeing tonight and got completely spoiled. 

[Lordmandeep]

So we are seeing the start of the Jordan Peele cinematic Universe? 

[BadAtGender]

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i am a simple man so i will use simple words we have no idea right now there you go but i had to bet i would say yes still we dont know there you go :d

tl;dr version: 400m is possible, but increasingly unlikely, barring some very, very good later legs.

[That One Girl]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

So we are seeing the start of the Jordan Peele cinematic Universe? 

 

No, you see, this is what is known as “a good director making two good movies that make good money”

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

tl;dr version: 400m is possible, but increasingly unlikely, barring some very, very good later legs.

i wouldnt judge base on only one weekend (who can be higher than that) i mean it will need only a 2.6 multi to hit 400 dom as of now i have see nothing to suggest that this wont have 2.6 multi its not very clever or right to judge a multi of a movie based on a weekend and ingnroring the good legs (better than guardians 2) so far ,i will agree with you if i see the movie  drop badly also remember what they were saying about homecoming or antman 2 it will never hit 200 dom or 300 dom yet here we are no i amnot saying that it will pull that kind of legs but we have see how it turns outs when we are quick to judge a movie perfomance is more than just a weekend again i am talking as of now

Edited March 22, 2019 by john2000

[Lordmandeep]

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

No, you see, this is what is known as “a good director making two good movies that make good money”

 

 

or a director making one good movie that has now created a brand that is giving a large boost to another good well made movie. 

 

If US was not a Jordan Peele movie it would not been anywhere as big of an opener. 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[That One Girl]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

or a director making one good movie that has now created a brand that is giving a large boost to another good well made movie. 

 

That’s not a cinematic universe.

[Lordmandeep]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

That’s not a cinematic universe.

 

 

IT WAS A JOKE LOL 

 

about how studious are all trying to make cinematic universes once a brand takes off lol 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[BadAtGender]

27 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i wouldnt judge base on only one weekend (who can be higher than that) i mean it will need only a 2.6 multi to hit 400 dom as of now i have see nothing to suggest that this wont have 2.6 multi its not very clever or right to judge a multi of a movie based on a weekend and ingnroring the good legs (better than guardians 2) so far ,i will agree with you if i see the movie  drop badly also remember what they were saying about homecoming or antman 2 it will never hit 200 dom or 300 dom yet here we are no i amnot saying that it will pull that kind of legs but we have see how it turns outs when we are quick to judge a movie perfomance is more than just a weekend again i am talking as of now

 

I'm not doing this based on a single weekend. I'm looking at comparable movies, all of which were either ahead of CM at the comparable time, were holding up better, or both. And then I'm looking at what sort of weekly trends it would need to get to certain levels.

 

I mean... this is a movie box office website. Analysis of the numbers is What We Do. You can't just say "well, we don't know" because sometime we're (collectively) wrong. That would obviate the entire point of these forums. 

 

This isn't a judgement of CM's performance, which is all around fantastic. It's just a look at the question "will it get to 400m" and it looks like... "maybe, but probably not", is the answer. The early projection for the weekend just means that getting there is more difficult.

[Rthmessiah]

From a while ago I was looking at CM 9m , Us 29-30m

[expensiveho]

I must say that overreaction to Deadline's early Friday numbers for Marvel movies is the most consistent thing on this site. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

 

I'm not doing this based on a single weekend. I'm looking at comparable movies, all of which were either ahead of CM at the comparable time, were holding up better, or both. And then I'm looking at what sort of weekly trends it would need to get to certain levels.

 

I mean... this is a movie box office website. Analysis of the numbers is What We Do. You can't just say "well, we don't know" because sometime we're (collectively) wrong. That would obviate the entire point of these forums. 

 

This isn't a judgement of CM's performance, which is all around fantastic. It's just a look at the question "will it get to 400m" and it looks like... "maybe, but probably not", is the answer. The early projection for the weekend just means that getting there is more difficult.

CM will be between $10M-$15M better than Hunger Games at the same point...and Hunger Games made $408M.

 

Going against CM is the enormous competition coming out the next 3 weekends (including this one), especially since one of those is also a super, BUT 

1. The Hunger Games 3rd weekend was Easter weekend, so it already had weekly day bumps prior to weekend 3...Easter is not til April 21 this year, so if CM can hold theaters, it will get 2 weeks of more nice weekdays.

2. Some of the competition are Disney films - dual showings and such always give the old Disney film a nice bump...and Endgame is certain to give it an enormous % one.

3. Disney is gonna push it if it's close...and they have so many avenues to do so.  This weekend makes it more likely it's falling towards the "push" to $400M vs the "sail" to $400M, but I definitely don't think it takes $400M off the table yet.  It will take a poor week of holds and a poor weekend hold next weekend (thus making it vulnerable to drops when Shazam opens) before I start worrying about $400M.

 

[BadAtGender]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

CM will be between $10M-$15M better than Hunger Games at the same point...and Hunger Games made $408M.

 

Going against CM is the enormous competition coming out the next 3 weekends (including this one), especially since one of those is also a super, BUT 

1. The Hunger Games 3rd weekend was Easter weekend, so it already had weekly day bumps prior to weekend 3...Easter is not til April 21 this year, so if CM can hold theaters, it will get 2 weeks of more nice weekdays.

2. Some of the competition are Disney films - dual showings and such always give the old Disney film a nice bump...and Endgame is certain to give it an enormous % one.

3. Disney is gonna push it if it's close...and they have so many avenues to do so.  This weekend makes it more likely it's falling towards the "push" to $400M vs the "sail" to $400M, but I definitely don't think it takes $400M off the table yet.  It will take a poor week of holds and a poor weekend hold next weekend (thus making it vulnerable to drops when Shazam opens) before I start worrying about $400M.

 

 

1. See earlier post about THG, but basically it's probably not realistic to expect the late legs that film got here. They were absurdly good.

 

2. While the double feature bump is real, it's not particularly huge in real dollar terms. At best, it can get a few million more. Put it this way: if CM has a 1m weekend prior to Endgame and then gets a 100% boost, it'll earn 2m the Endgame weekend. And then probably fall well over 50% the following weekend.

 

3. The realm of a realistic push is much smaller than people tend to realize. At best, a company can push for an extra couple million, but not much more. If CM is looking to end with around 395m, that's probably too much for Disney to make the effort to get it to 400m. The cost of such an effort isn't worth the marginal value of the number in most cases.

 

 

Finally, pointing out that something is unlikely doesn't mean that it's "off the table" it just means... that it's unlikely.

[Cmasterclay]

7.4  previews

21.6 Friday

24 Saturday

18 Sunday

 

71 OW from a 29m OD.

[TalismanRing]

12 minutes ago, expensiveho said:

I must say that overreaction to Deadline's early Friday numbers for Marvel movies is the most consistent thing on this site. 

[SchumacherFTW]

14 minutes ago, Rthmar-vell said:

From a while ago I was looking at CM 9m , Us 29-30m

Jesus Christ

[RealLyre]

if it's not Front-loaded (high end)

29.5M Fri

28M -5% Sat

26M -36% Sun

83.5M OW

 

 

but a more realistic number would be

29M Fri

25.5M -12% Sat

15.8M -38% Sun

~70M

 

hope it manges 70M at least

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[cdsacken]

lol. Projections this early on Friday for entire weekends and people go nuts.

 

Looks like US is a hit despite the meh ending. I will probably see it and expect worse than Get Out to not be disappointed. CM may hit 400m, may not still gonna go near 1.1 billion with zero prior introduction. That's fucking incredible.