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[LonePirate]

41 minutes ago, john2000 said:

depends, with that ow it was expected and still its leggy for a 357 opener

Correct. It has the best legs of any film to open north of $258M. Who knows when those legs will be matched or exceeded.

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

So, I’m generally a fan of not giving excessively narrow ranges early in a run, but excessively broad ranges aren’t good either. This isn’t possible outside of a meteor or other huge external shock.

you understand that it was an example i wanted to give that was saying we dont know how the movie will end up yet ? it wasnt meant to be something that will likely happen

[keysersoze123]

Its not a great increase considering IW increased 29% and even with bigger iMax/PLF it should have at least increased 25%(my prediction in tuesday thread). Its not as if number of iMAX and PLF have doubled over past year.

The bigger factor is Endgame has been so HUGE that it has started to run out of audience. I would say around 8.7m wednesday and 8.1m Thursday(Pikachu is taking 7PM PLF show in several cities) and around 65m 3rd weekend. I would say it will start to show late legs starting Memorial weekend. That plus stronger weekdays could still take it to 900m Domestic as it should run all the way till labor day and later.

[Legion Again]

47 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

CW 644.5+217.5*1.01=864M

IM3 644.5+217.5*1.17=899M

IW 644.5+217.5*1.24=914M

AoU 644.5+217.5*1.25=916M

TA 644.5+217.5*1.61=995M  

There was a slight arithmetic error earlier, now corrected. I’d mostly ignore the lowest and highest, should probably do somewhere between IM3 and a bit above AoU.

[Zakiyyah6]

Saying that the film is showing signs of frontloading is not acting like the sky is falling. The film will still pass Avatar worldwide and is doing great but people should be allowed to analyze the numbers without being accused of overreacting. 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its not a great increase considering IW increased 29% and even with bigger iMax/PLF it should have at least increased 25%(my prediction in tuesday thread). Its not as if number of iMAX and PLF have doubled over past year.

The bigger factor is Endgame has been so HUGE that it has started to run out of audience. I would say around 8.7m wednesday and 8.1m Thursday(Pikachu is taking 7PM PLF show in several cities) and around 65m 3rd weekend. I would say it will start to show late legs starting Memorial weekend. That plus stronger weekdays could still take it to 900m Domestic as it should run all the way till labor day and later.

the movie should start to stabylise in the next week

[john2000]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

Saying that the film is showing signs of frontloading is not acting like the sky is falling. The film will still pass Avatar worldwide and is doing great but people should be allowed to analyze the numbers without being accused of overreacting. 

to say that every day this thing all the time it becomes annoying, you said it once you said it  2, now just wait and see, goes both ways no need to for analyze everything either good thing or a bad thing  , and the more analyze comes the  more we have people that have meltdowns

[SpiderByte]

People need to realize that Endgame is in completely uncharted territory. There's no comparable metric to run something like this on because no movie has ever done it.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

you understand that it was an example i wanted to give that was saying we dont know how the movie will end up yet ? it wasnt meant to be something that will likely happen

It’s just odd to chose a low end figure that can’t actually happen. Like you could say “it’s still early, we don’t know how it will go, could finish as low as 700 or as high as 1.1” but that isn’t really true. There’s a happy medium between not portraying things as less uncertain than they are while also not portraying them as more uncertain than they are  

[john2000]

Just now, SpiderByte said:

People need to realize that Endgame is in completely uncharted territory. There's no comparable metric to run something like this on because no movie has ever done it.

agreed

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

People need to realize that Endgame is in completely uncharted territory. There's no comparable metric to run something like this on because no movie has ever done it.

Oh come now. Is Endgame is uncharted waters? Yes, indubitably. But is breaking the OW record by 38% so different from breaking it by 20% that we can’t get any useful predictions out of carefully comparing runs? No.

[john2000]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

It’s just odd to chose a low end figure that can’t actually happen. Like you could say “it’s still early, we don’t know how it will go, could finish as low as 700 or as high as 1.1” but that isn’t really true. There’s a happy medium between not portraying things as less uncertain than they are while also not portraying them as more uncertain than they are  

yeah i mean the movie will probaly be  around 800 by next  weekend already , i just sometimes use extreme example to give my point, i dont do a very good job though even in my native language 

[Zakiyyah6]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

to say that every day this thing all the time it becomes annoying, you said it once you said it  2, now just wait and see, goes both ways no need to for analyze everything either good thing or a bad thing  , and the more analyze comes the  more we have people that have meltdowns

If you don't like my posts then block me. 

[cdsacken]

Watch Wednesday be like 9.9 million and and everyone will reverse course on this crumbling narrative

[john2000]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

If you don't like my posts then block me. 

? what ? i like your post even if i disagree a little , there is a middle ground 

[john2000]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Watch Wednesday be like 9.9 million and and everyone will reverse course on this crumbling narrative

that can bet that will happen ( i expect/hope a softer drop than usual)

[Zakiyyah6]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Watch Wednesday be like 9.9 million and and everyone will reverse course on this crumbling narrative

Everyone is not saying that it is crumbling. I don't think that it is crumbling at all and I don't use silly buzz words like that. I analyze the numbers one day at a time. I will not rule out any number for Wednesday, including 9.9mil. Obviously I doubt it will drop hard with such a weak increase.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[terrestrial]

Not sure if that is new or of interest

 

IMAX‏Verified account @IMAX 3m3 minutes ago

More

Experience the end of IT in IMAX. Trailer drops tomorrow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqUopiAYdRg …

[john2000]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

Everyone is not saying that it is crumbling. I don't think that it is crumbling at all and I don't use silly buzz words like that.

why you take everything personal ? not every comment is about you, you know

[Nakamura]

12 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Saying that the film is showing signs of frontloading is not acting like the sky is falling. The film will still pass Avatar worldwide and is doing great but people should be allowed to analyze the numbers without being accused of overreacting. 

It can pass avatar???