Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

It looks quite possible that 4/5 May weekends will outperform board expectations (not end of April expectations, mind — couple of months ago expectations),

Next weekend will be a fun one with potentially $110M+ worth of openers landing.

[UserHN]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

There are critics dinging it for not being original, but most critical complaints seem more to do with execution.   Change too much and then you lose the nostalgia the audience is looking for.  

But it seems like the audience is liking the film. I can actually now trust RT's revamped audience score because those giving the ratings are verified to have seen the movie. And 90% of them liked Aladdin.

[YM!]

On 2/7/2019 at 10:14 AM, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Aladdin runthrough: 

 

This is my middle of the road prediction. The average OW for a live action Disney remake is about $76M, though Aladdin is a popular property, it faces an uphill battle, it faces a plethora of family competition, and I’d imagine by the time it’s opened, Pikachu and Uglydolls probably together combined to $230M ($50M from Uglydolls, let’s say $60M-$65M total, $180M from Pikachu so I’m thinking around $230M-$235M total). Not to mention, Disney has two huge tentpoles in the upcoming months they have to market, so it’s not hard to imagine Aladdin gets the short end of the stick.

 

I’m guessing it recieved okay reviews, around 55%-65%, and audiences enjoy it, say A- CinemaScore. Aladdin should follow the OW pattern of BATB and Disney’s own Tomorrowland in terms of jumps, the previews should be around 10% of the OW, say $9M as it’s the summer and should have some frontloadedness due to the fanbase and the time (likely at 5 or 6 pm), and the OD brings us a $31M, Saturday is flat and 5% drop Sunday gives us about $91.45M. Add $25M (-15% drop), boom $116M 4 day.

 

Using live action family skewing movies like Tomorrowland, NATM2, and Alice 2, as well as Pirates 5 and Solo, it should have about 14% of it’s 7 day in dailies so you get about $132.35M total. Using the same comparisons for second weekend drops, you get a 59.78% drop, if we factor out Pirates and Solo, you get 56.36%. Either of them seem right on the money, as it has a fanbase and will likely lose it’s PLFs and IMAX to Godzilla 2, which I’m guessing does $65M-$80M OW, though we should note Godzilla and Aladdin appeal to different demographics. My guess is a 58% drop, so about $38M weekend and a $170.75M total. 

 

Third weekend should drop around the high 40s to low 50s ($18M-$20M) as Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix opens, Aladdin will be around $200M-$210M by then.

 

It will pocket around $35M for the rest of June and will tapper off around July. The multiple for the total using the 4 day should be around 2.268 using the comps (2.35 if we exclude Pirates and Solo), so you’d wind up with a $263M-$273M total.

 

#notacurse

Edited May 25, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Porthos]

TOG "Not Cool"ing me for my last post, I get, as he's upset about Aladdin doing well.  But @Nova??  I specifically said I found it sad that Pika Pika isn't performing to some folks expectations so I wouldn't upset Pika fans when I made the Aladdin half of my comment.  

 

I mean it, BTW.  I wanted Pikachu to do very well as well.  It's just the whole irony of the situation as it's played out that I find amusing.

[Nova]

 No one has brought up Disney sabotaging WB and no one is going to bring that up. In fact, most people have said that maybe WB should have planned their releases better ie with Shazam or possibly switching some of their releases. Either way not sure what WB or any other studio is supposed to do. Move all their films away from disney releases? Can’t wait until Disney officially starts making and distributing Fox movies. But at least they own the rights to the X-Men now. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

TOG "Not Cool"ing me for my last post, I get, as he's upset about Aladdin doing well.  But @Nova??  I specifically said I found it sad that Pika Pika isn't performing to some folks expectations so I wouldn't upset Pika fans when I made the Aladdin half of my comment.  

 

I mean it, BTW.  I wanted Pikachu to do very well as well.  It's just the whole irony of the situation as it's played out that I find amusing.

Did I “Not Cool” you? I’m on mobile and thought I hit the “Thanks” reaction. Now I wonder how many times this has happened to me while on my phone 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I don't think Disney Live Action Remakes need that much sympathy but considering Aladdin was the punching bag by BOT (including me) for much of the first half of this year it's nice to see it do well. Audiences seem to be enjoying it too.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

TOG "Not Cool"ing me for my last post, I get, as he's upset about Aladdin doing well.  But @Nova??  I specifically said I found it sad that Pika Pika isn't performing to some folks expectations so I wouldn't upset Pika fans when I made the Aladdin half of my comment.  

 

I mean it, BTW.  I wanted Pikachu to do very well as well.  It's just the whole irony of the situation as it's played out that I find amusing.

I'm pretty sure the real conspiracy isn't between Disney and WB (or other studios), but the universe and BOT. 

 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Did I “Not Cool” you? I’m on mobile and thought I hit the “Thanks” reaction. Now I wonder how many times this has happened to me while on my phone 

Well it showed up as "Not Cool" originally on my end at least.   It's showing as "Thanks" now, FWIW.

 

(And, yes, leaving reactions on mobile is a PITA)

 

Anyway, thanks for the clarification.

 

 

 

Edited May 25, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

 No one has brought up Disney sabotaging WB and no one is going to bring that up. In fact, most people have said that maybe WB should have planned their releases better ie with Shazam or possibly switching some of their releases. Either way not sure what WB or any other studio is supposed to do. Move all their films away from disney releases? Can’t wait until Disney officially starts making and distributing Fox movies. But at least they own the rights to the X-Men now. 

Also I know how this looks...but just remember I’m a big fan of the MCU and Disney films in general....I’m just worried at how the future of the movie industry is going to look. It seems like unless you’re a well known property, it’s hard to do much at the box office unless you’ve got everything going for you. I’m just frustrated that two really good comedies in May in The Long Shot and Booksmart are looking to be duds at the box office. And with Disney being the king of known properties...I don’t know. I just hope that movies like Long Shot and Booksmart don’t stop being sent to theaters. Or that other studios can start being smarter about their release dates *Cough WB releasing Shazam! Between CM and End Game Cough* 

Edited May 25, 2019 by Nova

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

 No one has brought up Disney sabotaging WB and no one is going to bring that up.

Sadly I can name like at least 2 users who seriously think that.

[MrPink]

I can't believe Disney has sabotaged WB and messed with the Sun Is Also A Star's potential

Edited May 25, 2019 by MrPink

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Also I know how this looks...but just remember I’m a big fan of the MCU....I’m just worried at how the future of the movie industry is going to look. It seems like unless you’re a well known property, it’s hard to do much at the box office unless you’ve got everything going for you. I’m just frustrated that two really good comedies in May in The Long Shot and Booksmart are looking to be duds at the box office. And with Disney being the king of known properties...I don’t know. I just hope that movies like Long Shot and Booksmart don’t stop being sent to theaters. 

I don't get how people can root for Disney. I mean remakes aside I like-love their movies, but I don't get how people can root for the company as it is slowly becoming a monopoly. And the effects they have effect the industry as a whole, I mean why else are getting all of these nostalgia based reboots/remakes like Men In Black International or ID:R.

 

I have a lot of hope for 2020 though as it seems like a solid ground for New films to kick off as there's a lack of big movies.

Edited May 25, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

I can't believe Disney has sabotaged WB and messed with the Sun Is Also A Star's potential

Finally someone said it.

[charlie Jatinder]

ALADDIN

Edited May 25, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[That One Girl]

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Edited May 25, 2019 by That One Guy

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

.

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Edited May 25, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I don't get how people can root for Disney. I mean remakes aside I like-love their movies, but I don't get how people can root for the company as it is slowly becoming a monopoly. And the effects they have effect the industry as a whole, I mean why else are getting all of these nostalgia based reboots/remakes like Men In Black International or ID:R.

 

I have a lot of hope for 2020 though as it seems like a solid ground for New films to kick off as there's a lack of big movies.

I mean people can like what they like. If that’s live action remakes then that’s live action remakes. I enjoyed a movie about a talking Pokémon so I have no room to judge  

 

But in accessing how the box office this year has gone and what’s to come, it seems inevitable that 7-8 of the top 10 films WW this year will be Disney movies....unless something really breaks out of course. And that’s not including Aladdin possibly squeezing in there depending on legs/OW. And I’m just not sure how good that is for the box office industry when one studio own 7-8 of the top 10 spots at the box office while you’ve got a studio like Lionsgate who finally managed a hit with Wick (which by the way that franchise...there are no words to describe its growth in the movie industry climate we are in), Annapurna who don’t know how to release a movie period, Paramount....god knows what the hell theyre up to and WB who typically has a good year but ugh I feel like their movies could have so much more potential  

[YM!]

I wonder if $300M DOM is happening?

[Yandereprime101189]

Could you imagine if they released Lion King on Memorial Day instead?