Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[Cap]

2 hours ago, Mulder said:

>Aladdin succeeding

Aladdin succeeding is good for Godzilla in my opinion Those movies have been tracking the same in pre-sales all month from the theaters that I follow. In some cases Godzilla is ahead of Aladdin. Aladdin will get the bump from the holiday weekend, but if Godzilla can stay strong on week in pre-sales, I would not be shocked if their 3 Days looked very similar. 

 

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I meant from a theater space point of view. Theaters are definitely gonna have fun deciding what to book in what theaters (FYI Godzilla is getting the PLF auditorium here but the biggest non-PLF auditorium is going to Rocketman while Ma is getting a medium-sized theater during the day before moving to one of the bigger ones - most likely swapping with Aladdin - for the last show of the night).

One of the local theaters has 300 something seats for its largest screen/stadium. They are showing Rocketman than instead of Godzilla. 

 

And Lincoln Square has Godzilla on IMAX with Rocketman in the Dolby. 

[ScoobyDoo21]

If true then it is weird how John Wick is estimated to drop like a rock. It isn't like it shares the same demo with Aladdin.

Edited May 24, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

So the 27 mill estimate for Wick is the four day? Yuck. That kinda sucks.

Well, it did have a fanbase that rushed out last weekend (on top of Aladdin playing like a 4 quadrant movie). It's still on track for $130-135M, which is almost as much as the first two movies combined.

[Cookson]

Not sure where these worries for KotM are coming from. Kong co-existed fine with Logan and a over 170m opener that was BatB. Remember people thought Logan could actually take the n1 spot for Kong’s opening.

 

All indication is KotM is a great crowd pleaser and really has a easier road than Kong. A 60-70m opening for KotM should be fine with some much better legs than G14 percentage wise. Don’t know if it can catch G14s total though with a 60, but MAYBE a 70 it could.

[Mulder]

Just now, Cookson said:

Not sure where these worries for KotM are coming from. Kong co-existed fine with Logan and a over 170m opener that was BatB. Remember people thought Logan could actually take the n1 spot for Kong’s opening.

 

All indication is KotM is a great crowd pleaser and really has a easier road than Kong. A 60-70m opening for KotM should be fine with some much better legs than G14 percentage wise. Don’t know if it can catch G14s total though with a 60, but MAYBE a 70 it could.

It'd need a 3.4 multiplier from a 60 OW...and honestly I think KoTM could do it.

[Eric the Ape]

Runtimes w/out credits and trailer attachments for next week's releases:

 

Godzilla: King of the Monsters: 2:02. Attachments unknown (Annabelle Comes Home and Joker?)

Rocketman: 1:55. Attachments are Gemini Man and Terminator: Dark Fate (weird, because I got a Crawl trailer when I went to the Fandango Early Access show)

Ma: 1:32. Attachments are Good Boys and The Dead Don't Die

[JB33]

Deadpool 2 and Alien: Covenant, both released on the same day as John Wick: Chapter 3 in 2018 and 2017 respectively, also dropped between 60 and 70% (for the 3-day). There's a precedent for this.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

If true then it is weird how John Wick is estimated to drop like a rock. It isn't like it shares the same demo with Aladdin.

It lost a lot of its PLFs, you could see that by the Thur drop it was going to take a hit

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Deadpool 2 and Alien: Covenant, both released on the same day as John Wick: Chapter 3 in 2018 and 2017 respectively, also dropped between 60 and 70% (for the 3-day). There's a precedent for this.

I mentioned this (well the Deadpool 2 comparison) like a page or two back but for some reason people are choosing to ignore it  But I also can't talk since I had a complete meltdown last year during Deadpool 2's second weekend so Im gonna keep my mouth shut….

Edited May 25, 2019 by Nova

[Jamiem]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

The Jurassic World - Inside Out and Fallen Kingdom - Incredibles 2 weeks do give me hope and its certainly true that KOTM and Aladdin are very different films. But i cant help myself, ive been extremely nervous for weeks now lol

If it’s any consolation I think Godzilla and Aladdin will be able to coexist much better internationally were Detective Pikachu and Endgame are already winding down across most of the rest of the world and John Wick 3 didn’t take off as much as it did in the domestic market, thus I think in many markets outside of local films it’ll be a decent amount of room for both to do well. 

[MrPink]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Well, it did have a fanbase that rushed out last weekend (on top of Aladdin playing like a 4 quadrant movie). It's still on track for $130-135M, which is almost as much as the first two movies combined.

 

this day extracts a heavy toll on my summer game

[Eric the Ape]

21 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Deadpool 2 and Alien: Covenant, both released on the same day as John Wick: Chapter 3 in 2018 and 2017 respectively, also dropped between 60 and 70% (for the 3-day). There's a precedent for this.

But even then, stuff like Solo and Pirates had a bit more of an audience overlap. Wick and Aladdin, even if the latter may be "4-quad", still don't have that much audience overlap. If the 3-Day dropped in the 50s, it would still be kind of understandable, but the 60s is just really disappointing.

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

But even then, stuff like Solo and Pirates had a bit more of an audience overlap. Wick and Aladdin, even if the latter may be "4-quad", still don't have that much audience overlap. If the 3-Day dropped in the 50s, it would still be kind of understandable, but the 60s is just really disappointing.

 

maybe....the estimates will go up and it will touch 30m 4-day

 

Don't mind me, I'm bargaining

Edited May 25, 2019 by MrPink

[Nova]

I don't think you guys realize how much taking away a movie's PLF screens after the first weekend really effects a movie. Especially one like Wick which is an action film and I imagine made pretty good money off of PLF screens. 

 

Audience overlap maybe true but at the same time its not like Deadpool 2 kept dropping like a rock after Solo opened it up. It literally stabilized the week afterwards and was able to get a 2.53x which isn't mind blowing but is def better than its 65% second weekend drop would have indicated. So maybe audience overlap played a role but if it did, I don't think it was that significant as both films co-existed just fine post MDW. 

[baumer]

40 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Well, it did have a fanbase that rushed out last weekend (on top of Aladdin playing like a 4 quadrant movie). It's still on track for $130-135M, which is almost as much as the first two movies combined.

 

I realize there was way more of a rush factor to this, but I just thought it would hold a bit better.  I was hoping for a 145-150 finish.  

[charlie Jatinder]

Bit in a hurry, take these rough estimates. (+/- 5%)

 

32-32.5

6.5-6.75

4.2

Edited May 25, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[baumer]

36 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Deadpool 2 and Alien: Covenant, both released on the same day as John Wick: Chapter 3 in 2018 and 2017 respectively, also dropped between 60 and 70% (for the 3-day). There's a precedent for this.

 

You're right of course.  I just had higher hopes for Wick...then again, with DP2 falling 60% in the second weekend, it still recovered enough for a 2.6x.  So a 145-150 finish for Wick is still possible.

[Hokkaido MUTO]

So...what are we expecting Aladdin to do in the 3 day OW? 

[ScoobyDoo21]

80-85 million with a possible 110 4-day OW.

 

This movie should do better than the early Friday estimate Charlie gave out.

Edited May 25, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[MrPink]

6.75 would be a good increase for Wick I think. Pushes it closer to that 29-30m range. 

 

Excellent for Aladdin

Edited May 25, 2019 by MrPink