charlie Jatinder Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 If NWH does 95M+, Avatar 2 shall be 100M easily 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildphantom Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 hours ago, Stewart said: You might want to first wonder if it will even release at all! I mean, we're 10 months out and we having gotten anything yet, and Cameron is notorious for delays... i know right! I won’t even believe we’re getting it at Xmas until at least October! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: If NWH does 95M+, Avatar 2 shall be 100M easily I don't see how there's any correlation between those two movies. 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said: I don't see how there's any correlation between those two movies. XMAS release. Avatar 2 is much more Europe friendly than a CBM. 100M+ is up for grab granted its a solo release. And if it manage to get 3D going, who knows even more. Edited February 23, 2022 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: XMAS release. Avatar 2 is much more Europe friendly than a CBM. 100M+ is up for grab granted its a solo release. And if it manage to get 3D going, who knows even more. So by that logic Avatar 2 will make as much as Aquaman in the UK. Or Mary Poppins Returns 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Avatar 1 only did 94 so I don't really see why 2 would go above 80M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Derby Legion said: Avatar 1 only did 94 so I don't really see why 2 would go above 80M Because James Cameron will give us something we've never seen before! Except for the last one, but he'll bring a new way of watching movies! Except for all the other 3D movies we've seen.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said: So by that logic Avatar 2 will make as much as Aquaman in the UK. Or Mary Poppins Returns yikes Aquaman did really bad in UK. I was sort of expecting 65-70M from NWH pre release thanks to XMAS and now it has already beaten NTTD in admits and getting there in gross. It feels sort of impossible that a Cameron film on XMAS will end up lower than CBM in Europe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: yikes Aquaman did really bad in UK. I was sort of expecting 65-70M from NWH pre release thanks to XMAS and now it has already beaten NTTD in admits and getting there in gross. It feels sort of impossible that a Cameron film on XMAS will end up lower than CBM in Europe. But you're looking at this without acknowledging we're in a new box office era. There hasn't been a January this empty in the UK for a long long time, normally we're inundated with horror movies, trashy action, awards bait etc etc, and most of that just wasn't arriving to take away the screens. Plus, CBMs do much much better in the UK than the rest of Europe, and Spider-Man rode on the most powerful box office drug there is right now: Nostalgia. Avatar likely won't have that working in its favour, anecdotally there's no nostalgia for that film. If there's nostalgia for any film from 2009 it's likely The Hangover Edited February 23, 2022 by SchumacherFTW 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said: But you're looking at this without acknowledging we're in a new box office era. There hasn't been a January this empty in the UK for a long long time, normally we're inundated with horror movies, trashy action, awards bait etc etc, and most of that just wasn't arriving to take away the screens. Plus, CBMs do much much better in the UK than the rest of Europe, and Spider-Man rode on the most powerful box office drug there is right now: Nostalgia. Avatar likely won't have that working in its favour, anecdotally there's no nostalgia for that film. If there's nostalgia for any film from 2009 it's likely The Hangover Yeah that no competition thing is tough to beat. Without that I guess NWH would have concluded around 85-90. But I wonder if Avatar 2 can get lucky with 3D once again. Wasn't there talk of like Cameron saying it will have 3D without glasses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Yeah that no competition thing is tough to beat. Without that I guess NWH would have concluded around 85-90. But I wonder if Avatar 2 can get lucky with 3D once again. Wasn't there talk of like Cameron saying it will have 3D without glasses. Even if Glasses free 3D arrives this year, the number of theaters with it would have a negligible impact on the box office. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) TBH, this all talk about Avatar 2 increasing over Avatar is bulls if we are only talking about Europe. Avatar (2009) had very high ATP over all for movies released in 2009. Not taking UK as example because they really don't count Admissions, but taking Italy, Germany, France & Spain as examples that do. ITALY Avatar had 7.493m Admissions with total cume of 65.6m €, getting ATP of 8.75 No Way Home has 3.244m Admissions with cume of 24.26m, owing to ATP of just 7.47 Spain Avatar's ATP was 8.077 [Grossed 77.032m with 9.536m Attendees] No Way Home's ATP is 6.39 [Grossed 27.5m with Admission of 4.3m] Germany Avatar had earned ~ €114m with 11.31m Attendees owing to ATP of 10.13 No Way Home (2021) has ATP of 10.04 France Avatar had 14.782m Admission for total cume of ~ 130m € having an ATP of 8.80 No Way Home has an ATP of 8.07 Russia (Doesn't even Count as proper European Country) This is the only Country where ATP of No Way Home is higher than Avatar at 323 vs. 256, But that Avatar's 256 is still way higher than ATPs of movies released in 2009. This is when we are not talking about ER at all. These six countries (UK included) contributed to humongous $795m OS. I really wanna know, Was Avatar's ATP really low in UK? People quote the YEARLY ATP, but that's bullshit for cases like Avatar which were already taking 50% more than normal, for example, Average ATP in 2009 for other blockbusters in Germany was way lower from 6.9 for Ice Age 4 to highest 8.7 for Harry Potter. Edited February 23, 2022 by Shanks 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Of course it wasn't low, it had a nearly 90% 3D share and played nearly exclusively in that format and IMAX from week 3 through 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MG10 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) Does anyone know how close is No Time to Die to £96.7M? Because I know it's still in some theaters and having been at 96.6M for a couple of months I was curious Edited February 23, 2022 by MG10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, MG10 said: Does anyone know how close is No Time to Die to £96.7M? Because I know it's still in some theaters and having been at 96.6M for a couple of months I was curious 96,665,491 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarintino Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said: I don't see how there's any correlation between those two movies. Big movies with xmas release dates. Im sure we will start to see more of the gigantic December hits now hollywood have began to realise that december is the best month to release a movie, not summer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, MG10 said: Does anyone know how close is No Time to Die to £96.7M? Because I know it's still in some theaters and having been at 96.6M for a couple of months I was curious No Time To Die was £96,665,491 at end of 20th Week. It had earned 2000 £ that weekend.... so I don't think it can reach 96.7M at all without proper re-expansion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Derby Legion said: Avatar 1 only did 94 so I don't really see why 2 would go above 80M The same reason why unadjusted grosses just keep going up every year, the same reason why No Way Home has surpassed Avatar's unadjusted UK gross: ticket price increases. Not only do we have to account for the increases in the whole decade between 2009 and 2019, but also now those in this post-pandemic period, where cinemas are looking to quickly recoup their pandemic losses and where actual inflation is on the rise. In UK & Ireland Cineworld cinemas, the ATP was $8.53 in Q1-Q2 2019; in Q1-Q2 2021, that average was $11.62 (+36%). 2 hours ago, Shanks said: TBH, this all talk about Avatar 2 increasing over Avatar is bulls if we are only talking about Europe. Avatar (2009) had very high ATP over all for movies released in 2009. Not taking UK as example because they really don't count Admissions, but taking Italy, Germany, France & Spain as examples that do. I don't think anyone's seriously predicting an increase in Europe in dollar gross. Not only are Avatar's admissions in Europe second only to Titanic in at least the past 3 decades — an extremely high bar to equal, let alone surpass — but of course it also benefitted from very favorable EUR-USD, GBP-USD and RUB-USD exchange rates. That being said, there will be some offsetting factors, like higher local currency ticket prices. With some exceptions, ticket prices in local currency for big blockbusters have generally increased since Avatar. In Germany, for example, No Way Home is a bit of an exception, with big blockbusters of the past few years like The Force Awakens (€11.32), Infinity War (€11.10) and Endgame (€11.21) having higher averages than Avatar's €10.14. Spain and Italy are the major exceptions as their local currency ticket prices have decreased significantly since the mid-2010s due to various external factors. Russia, as you mention, is a big one, with No Way Home's average being ₽324, +26% over Avatar's ₽256. And while admissions data for the UK isn't publicly available, I can only imagine, based on the above data and the general trend of average ticket price increases over Avatar for recent big blockbusters in mature markets, that a movie like No Way Home will have a significantly higher ATP in the UK than Avatar did. And then you have to remember that we're making comparisons to regular big event blockbusters, and that Avatar 2 will ostensibly be the beneficiary of a higher share of 3D/premium format tickets, plus a further year or more of ticket price inflation over the comparables. There is also still market expansion to consider, even in Europe. Although most Western European countries have stayed static, many Central and Eastern European countries, like Russia (if you count it), Ukraine, Turkey, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria have seen big increases in yearly ticket sales since 2009. In Russia, for example, yearly admissions increased from 165.5m in 2010 to 216.3m in 2019, +31%. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Avatar 2 beat the original's admissions record there, and its local currency gross by a much wider margin. So while I don't think anyone can reasonably expect a dollar gross increase in Europe for Avatar 2, it certainly doesn't have to drop like a stone from the original. 75-85% of Avatar's dollar gross in Europe, off the top of my head, seems like a good goal for Avatar 2 to aim for. Edited February 23, 2022 by hw64 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 How is £80m dropping like a stone from the first movie? That's still top 10 of all time in the UK 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Today is The Batman premiere in London... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
