Heretic Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said: Am I right in recalling though that in $ Avatar came out at a time of a ridiculous $/£ exchange rate? I mean the difference between the mid 2000s and now is enormous. Surely theres's no way a movie now can make in $ conversion what it would have done in 2004-2010. I may be completely wrong. Only massive films like Top Gun Maverick have a chance at topping $100m in the UK these days due to the weak pound. Back in 2007 Order of the Phoenix broke the $100m mark and it didn’t even top £50m. If exchanges were that strong now, the UK would have multiple $150m+ films and some even over $200m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, JustLurking said: Italian market feels like it has shrunk much more to me though for example. If this film does, say, 40M+ final in Italy, which feels realistic to me, it would be the first hollywood film to do so since...well, Avatar. UK going 60-70M would be nowhere near as impressive. UK had much higher inflation than Italy. Am not really focussing on gross, even local currency but admits. 27 minutes ago, Heretic said: What would be interesting is to see what drops will be in local currency for end gross for all markets, as that removes currency complications also for comparison purposes. UK I think is looking at ~40% drop from Avatar in pounds, but potentially 55%+ in $. But we’ll have to wait and see how strong legs are. Could even be higher. That said, I was expecting 30%+ drop in France, Germany, Italy and Spain for full run as most films have not come closer to Avatar performance. UK on other hand we had TFA beating A1, probably Skyfall and Spectre as well, NWH and EG getting close to it. So was expecting a smaller drop in UK to be around 10M admits vs 11.5M of first one. That's why was thinking of 1.5M+ weekend admits. but guess UK will also be dropping 30%+ Edited December 19, 2022 by charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: UK had much higher inflation than Italy. Am not really focussing on gross, even local currency but admits. That said, I was expecting 30%+ drop in France, Germany, Italy and Spain for full run as most films have not come closer to Avatar performance. UK on other hand we had TFA beating A1, probably Skyfall and Spectre as well, NWH and EG getting close to it. So was expecting a smaller drop in UK to be around 10M admits vs 11.5M of first one. That's why was thinking of 1.5M+ weekend admits. but guess UK will also be dropping 30%+ I just think the market has changed a lot since 2009. TFA was a freak performance which won’t be repeated any time soon if ever, and Bond has been a monster in the UK ever since Skyfall. Endgame’s success obviously speaks for itself as does NWH with the return of Maguire and Garfield. Avatar 2 on the other hand is different. Avatar was groundbreaking at the time and a must see event even for non-cinema goers. This is not the case for Avatar 2, and the interest among more general audiences is no where near the level of its predecessor. Avatar also doesn’t have the lasting legacy or cultural impact in the UK like other films mentioned. When you take all these considerations into account I don’t think the fall is that shocking, albeit maybe disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 It's pretty simple, Avatar 2 is basically going to act like a normal sequel decline. How it legs out over the next few weeks will be interesting to see, but it ain't touching £90m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Avatar's OW is no slouch, lower than big IP like Star Wars but the likes of IMAX and 4DX have sold very well which bodes well for legs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Based on the opening I think the goal for A2 should be £50M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said: Based on the opening I think the goal for A2 should be £50M. 70M+ should be done. Edited December 19, 2022 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said: 70M+ should be done. Most things things that should be done for this have ended up not being done so I will take this as under 70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 More seriously, I will go for 54-62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophia Jane Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I keep my personal point of view that for all market that before 3rd weekend everything is still uncertain 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: 70M+ should be done. USD, maybe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, Korra Legion said: More seriously, I will go for 54-62 19 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said: USD, maybe. Rogue One did 62M from 13M FSS. See no reason to expect Avatar 2 below 70M with 11M FSS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 I don’t see this getting to £70m. £55m is max I see but obviously can’t tell which trajectory this is on until we see weekdays and Christmas legs. Next weekend though will likely drop 60% plus due to Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Rogue One did 62M from 13M FSS. See no reason to expect Avatar 2 below 70M with 11M FSS. This kinda reminds me of, “If NWH hit 800M DOM I see no reason why A2 won’t also.” 😌 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophia Jane Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Don’t do any predict before 3rd weekend end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Rogue One did 62M from 13M FSS. See no reason to expect Avatar 2 below 70M with 11M FSS. Was RO Fri open with no previews? If not, what was preFSS gross? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vale9001 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 hours ago, JustLurking said: Italian market feels like it has shrunk much more to me though for example. If this film does, say, 40M+ final in Italy, which feels realistic to me, it would be the first hollywood film to do so since...well, Avatar. UK going 60-70M would be nowhere near as impressive. In italy The lion king made 43M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bruce said: Don’t do any predict before 3rd weekend end Dude we get it. You can stop saying this. Each additional day we wait we’ll get more accurate predictions, but waiting 15+ days to talk about final totals is boring as shit. Most of the fun of a BO forum like this is trying to predict off present info, not waiting a long time to predict until almost all the uncertainty is gone. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Korra Legion said: Was RO Fri open with no previews? If not, what was preFSS gross? £17,305,011 OW This includes £4,086,256 from 664 previews 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, vale9001 said: In italy The lion king made 43M That's dollars, I'm talking euros. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
