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sfran43

Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

By sfran43, in Numbers and Data

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Xftg123 Indie Sensation

Xftg123

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Not much is coming out.

There's mainly Current War and Countdown, but with the three juggernauts currently in the runnings (Zom2, Mal2, Joker), they'll definitely hold well box office wise. I think Zom2 will end up dropping though in its second weekend.

 

The  big movie though is going to be Terminator Dark Fate, so there's that.

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Alli said:

Agreed about Gemini Man.

 

Similarly, critics can help a movie OW. They hyped up Ad Astra so much that it got a decent OW, but legs are bad. Scf-fi with A list Brad Pitt should do better than 50M, but the public is rightfully rejecting it

Yet it’s doing nearly 10x the amount of Goldfinch.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)

Biggest WB films WW outside of Potter/FB, DC/DCEU and Hobbit/LOTR:

  1. Inception - 828
  2. Matrix Reloaded - 742
  3. Gravity - 723
  4. IT - 700
  5. Hangover II - 587
  6. I Am Legend - 585
  7. RPO - 583
  8. KSI - 567
  9. American Sniper - 547
  10. Sherlock Holmes GoS - 545

R-rated

 

I hope GVK makes it too. Will be a big ask and will need a lot of help from China and Dom. KOTM's OS-China was ~140 believe it or not.

 

We never got Sherlock3. Sherlock2 showed a dip dom but had good legs and also did well OS.

 

Tenet will try to make the list.

Edited by a2k
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Webslinger Box Office Gold

Webslinger

Posted
Posted (edited)

Not a great opening for Maleficent, but that was to be expected. The first one over-performed and just seemed fairly well-liked rather than beloved, so a big drop for the belated sequel was inevitable. It should still have little trouble passing $100 million domestically, however.

 

Joker dropped harder than I was expecting after last weekend’s hold, but it’s obviously still a rousing success. With how slim next week’s schedule looks, I’ll be interested to see how close it comes to Maleficent for the #1 spot next weekend.

 

Zombieland: Double Tap had a solid if unspectacular opening. I feel like it would have been a pretty big hit earlier in the decade, but just opening above the first film’s unadjusted start from 10 years ago is a win and an indication that that film still has quite a bit of goodwill surrounding it.

 

The Addams Family took a hit against Maleficent, but it should recover nicely with Halloween just around the corner and no new competition for families next weekend.

 

Gemini Man got hit hard, no doubt thanks to a fairly tepid reception.

 

It’s nice to continue to see Parasite kicking ass in limited release. The limited starts for The Lighthouse and Jojo Rabbit are also fairly strong.

Edited by Webslinger
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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, a2k said:

Biggest WB films WW outside of Potter/FB, DC/DCEU and Hobbit/LOTR:

  1. Inception - 828
  2. Matrix Reloaded - 742
  3. Gravity - 723
  4. IT - 700
  5. Hangover II - 587
  6. I Am Legend - 585
  7. RPO - 583
  8. KSI - 567
  9. American Sniper - 547
  10. Sherlock Holmes GoS - 545

R-rated

 

I hope GVK makes it too. Will be a big ask and will need a lot of help from China and Dom. KOTM's OS-China was ~140 believe it or not.

 

We never got Sherlock3. Sherlock2 showed a dip dom but had good legs and also did well OS.

 

Tenet will try to make the list.

Sherlock Holmes 3 is coming in 2021, they've been patiently waiting for RDJ to become available. 

 

The Matrix 4 has a shot of doing near Matrix Reloaded numbers if it's good.  

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Xftg123 Indie Sensation

Xftg123

Posted
Posted

Does anyone feel like Mal2 came at the wrong time? It did very well when it first came out, May 2014, since there wasn't a lot of competition at the time. And then the sequel got pushed forward from May 2020 to October 2019, where Joker has been doing surprisingly well during this month. Then again, Disney's streaming service is coming out next month in November, so it feels like they kind of just dumped this film into October as they get ready for Disney+ next month.

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MrGlass2 Summer Tentpole

MrGlass2

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, a2k said:

 

We never got Sherlock3. Sherlock2 showed a dip dom but had good legs and also did well OS.

A Sherlock3 might not suffer from the typical decline for a long-delayed sequel, because the character has been around for 100+ years and the general audience won't (necessarily) lose interest.

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Probably not $600m, but $500m is quite possible, even $550m.

 

Even with a $100m+ US. drop if it does 75% of O/S of the first it makes $387.825 which would mean near $500m. But as of this w/e it's slightly ahead in $s in like for like markets

Ahead of Mal1's OS debut in like for like markets and at today's rates. But Mal1 only did some 380M OS at today's rates, so even the same legs would give it ~410M. So 550 is highly unlikely.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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