Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[reddevil19]

8 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Won't happen (unless China does 300 mln), maybe slight increase from WW1 international numbers at best. Domestically it'll probably have a slight drop (better OW, but worse legs)

Why? Sure, it can happen, but right now all indications would be to the opposite. 

[TMP]

25 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

It probably will get SOME form of award recognition, though HBO is skewing heavy towards genre productions in this post-GOT world, so that, His Dark Materials and WW might be drawing support from one another. Still, that's TV.

 

I'll be very surprised if those two shows/seasons get the same level of critical acclaim as Watchmen. We'll see!

[cdsacken]

17 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I loved Gemini Man but can we please stop with the "critics were wrong!" bullshit that happens anytime someone likes a movie that got mostly negative reviews?

I haven't seen it but I'm guessing they got it right and Mal 2. They nailed Joker. The ones who loved it thought it was a 10. Other ones who didn't like thought it was average. Net result super high rating.

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think Batman gonna make 250 mil in China. The Chinese have been craving for another film set in Gotham since the last two didn't release there (both of which seem to have pretty good WoM there from people who probably torrented them). I think if Joker released in China, it would have opened to around Aquaman numbers there and finished with around 200 mil looking at the high openings everywhere in the world. 

Trying to stay conservative, should the movie not appeal to the visual spectacle crowd. But 100-150 there seems like a safe bet. At the very least, they must be looking at Aquaman worldwide as a target, unless they announce it's a 30 million production, small location murder mystery, set in one building, with low-rent costumes. Which, given the production team it's amassing, is very unlikely, lol. People might think the cast is lacking star power (which IMO is a good thing, as there's less baggage coming with them - though Pattinson clearly has his previous franchise) but they're going for major talent behind the scenes. Loving Giacchino joining, for example...

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

I'll be very surprised if those two shows/seasons get the same level of critical acclaim as Watchmen. We'll see!

Think His Dark Materials has some good pedigree, being a BBC co-production and assuming the fantasy book adaptation role. I'm wondering if audiences have moved past the blood and sex GOT brought to mainstream fantasy visual media. If so, and it's embraced by the public, I think it will get awards love as well.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

One thing I've learned from DC is that never use a previous DC film to predict an upcoming one. 

 

But since Wonder Woman the quality has been great besides Justice League. 

Edited October 20, 2019 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Firepower]

2 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Why? Sure, it can happen, but right now all indications would be to the opposite. 

Wonder Woman doesn't have big international appeal, first movie's reception there was just okay, it wasn't "cultural event" there like in US, just your average superhero movie with normal, but nothing speical foreign numbers. I don't think there's any reason it would have a big increase internationally, really depends on quality/marketing.

[reddevil19]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Wonder Woman doesn't have big international appeal, first movie's reception there was just okay, it wasn't "cultural event" there like in US, just your average superhero movie with normal, but nothing speical foreign numbers. I don't think there's any reason it would have a big increase internationally, really depends on quality/marketing.

Does Captain Marvel really have international appeal? Or Black Panther? None of them became cultural phenoms like in the US. But they did those numbers thanks in large part to being key players in the biggest franchise there is. I'm not expecting WW84 to do the same kind of numbers necessarily, but I don't think 550 is impossible. Domestically, I'm thinking 150 million opening is possible if marketing connects, worse legs, maybe similar numbers as first one, give or take 10 million, thus leading to 900+, potentially challenging the billion (that was my stated goal - getting closer to that figure than the first movie, in which case 150 extra internationally is not really outrageous, especially if DC builds goodwill).

Edited October 20, 2019 by reddevil19

[Firepower]

6 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Does Captain Marvel really have international appeal? Or Black Panther?

Not comparable, both had MCU brand (which is very strong internationally) and Avengers connection, they could sell even the most unappealing movie with stats like that, Wonder Woman doesn't have all that, not even close.

Edited October 20, 2019 by Firepower

[reddevil19]

Just now, Firepower said:

Not comparable, they had MCU brand (which is very strong internationally) and Avengers connection, they could sell any movies with stats like that, Wonder Woman doesn't have all that, not even close.

Except it is comparable, if DC has 2 billion dollar movies within the span of a year, and the movie in question features a character that is already better known than the two from the MCU, thus compensating. Again, BP did 650M and CM did 700, thanks, as I said - and you acknowledged, but then failed to expand on with any other argument - to that MCU/Avengers connection. Making 100-150 million LESS than those two movies seems impossible to you?

[TMP]

14 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Think His Dark Materials has some good pedigree, being a BBC co-production and assuming the fantasy book adaptation role. I'm wondering if audiences have moved past the blood and sex GOT brought to mainstream fantasy visual media. If so, and it's embraced by the public, I think it will get awards love as well.

It also has the director of CATS doing some of the episodes. I know that funnybook shows don't get love, but none of them have gotten the kind of acclaim this is getting, and The Leftovers got snubbed but it also wasn't as high profile as a splashy, big budget Watchmen follow-up given the GoT time slot

[reddevil19]

Just now, TMP said:

It also has the director of CATS doing some of the episodes. I know that funnybook shows don't get love, but none of them have gotten the kind of acclaim this is getting, and The Leftovers got snubbed but it also wasn't as high profile as a splashy, big budget Watchmen follow-up given the GoT time slot

Haha. That's a bit unkind. It's just as easy to say "Academy Award Winning Director", as well as "Emmy Award Winning Director". As I said, the pedigree is there. I agree that Watchmen probably has the upper hand. It's probably more to do with me hoping HDM is actually proper good, as I want big budget fantasy shows done right almost as much as I want big budget space operas. There's so much superhero stuff out there now, and I just want more fantasy and space operas to compensate.  

[Firepower]

13 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Except it is comparable, if DC has 2 billion dollar movies within the span of a year, and the movie in question features a character that is already better known than the two from the MCU, thus compensating.

Aquaman had Christmas release date and it's much more appealing movie internationally than Wonder Woman. Joker is a brilliant film with one of the best marketing campaigns in years and real cultural event around the world, not just in one country. WW1984 doesn't have any real advantages to have big increase unless China goes crazy.

13 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Again, BP did 650M and CM did 700, thanks, as I said - and you acknowledged, but then failed to expand on with any other argument - to that MCU/Avengers connection.

I can assure you that MCU/Avengers connection is the only reason Captain Marvel made much more than 800 mln worldwide as well as why Black Panther did 650 internationally. I even know some people who didn't care about Captain Marvel, but went to see it anyway to find out "connection"(!) to Endgame. The same people who went to see Black Panther to find out "connection" to Infinity War.

13 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Making 100-150 million LESS than those two movies seems impossible to you?

You mean Black Panther or Captatin Marvel? If BP, it's impossible of course. if you mean Caption Marvel, then it's closer to possibility, but I think 900 mln worldwide for WW1984 is best case scenario if it's actually good and all stars allign.

Edited October 20, 2019 by Firepower

[cdsacken]

25 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

One thing I've learned from DC is that never use a previous DC film to predict an upcoming one. 

 

But since Wonder Woman the quality has been great besides Justice League. 

Flash is guaranteed to bomb though. Very sad about that. 

[Xftg123]

What do you guys think Mal2's end total will be Worldwide? I think that the movie might end up being in the Cinderella numbers once it ends, or it could possibly be at 600M.

[charlie Jatinder]

Watched Jurassic Park today. This is how you make great creature film. With good human story, creature are just assecories. Something I missed in Jaws and all Jurassic films afterwards.

 

Then just finished Midsommar. God it was awful, easily the worst film I watched since I don't know Zero.

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Watched Jurassic Park today. This is how you make great creature film. With good human story, creature are just assecories. Something I missed in Jaws and all Jurassic films afterwards.

 

Then just finished Midsommar. God it was awful, easily the worst film I watched since I don't know Zero.

[Jake Gittes]

All due respect I'll take these six minutes over most "human stories" in most entire blockbusters including Jurassic Park

 

 

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Xftg123 said:

What do you guys think Mal2's end total will be Worldwide? I think that the movie might end up being in the Cinderella numbers once it ends, or it could possibly be at 600M.

450 or less

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

450 or less

Hmmm...

 

Heading into the launch session, the industry was seeing a $115M-$125M overseas start for the Angelina Jolie sequel. The result is above the original’s 2014 opening of $109M in like-for-like markets and at today’s rates — just a roughly 7% bump... - Deadline