Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[a2k]

29 for Joker even without a particularly good Sun,

8.6 + 12.25 + 8.2 (-33%) = 29.05

 

31 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Charlie hours later said that maybe it's 250k higher. So saturday could be even better, closer to 12.5.

If so then 30 is at least feasible,

8.6 + 12.5 (+45%) + 8.9 (-29%) = 30

Edited October 20, 2019 by a2k

[Firepower]

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

29 for Joker even without a particularly good Sun,

8.6 + 12.25 + 8.2 (-33%) = 29.05

Charlie hours later said that maybe it's 250k higher. So saturday could be even better, closer to 12.5.

[Valonqar]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

No major change, except Joker may be 250k more. Parasite, Lighthouse and JoJo may drop as per current reported numbers. 

 

JoJo 118k

Lighthouse 140k

Parasite 425k

Holy shit those limited numbers! 

[cdsacken]

8 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

I think Maleficent can do to 125ish with early indicators of reception and the upcoming schedule. Won't commit to much until we've seen the first 10 days though.

Sure and probably 500 ww for an ideal scenario. Still that as ideal is kinda sad.

[a2k]

14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Sure and probably 500 ww for an ideal scenario. Still that as ideal is kinda sad.

Malef OS was 517 while Malef2 WW will likely fall well below that. This is a case similar to APOC after DOFP (but APOC crossed 155 dom and got good returns there at least, and also crossed 540 globally). Both have similar budgets.

 

DOFP and Malef did similar business in 2014

 

DOFP Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$233,921,534	31.3%
+ Foreign:	$513,941,241	68.7%
= Worldwide:	$747,862,775

 

MALEF Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$241,410,378	31.8%
+ Foreign:	$517,129,407	68.2%
= Worldwide:	$758,539,785

 

APOC Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$155,442,489	28.6%
+ Foreign:	$388,492,298	71.4%
= Worldwide:	$543,934,787

Edited October 20, 2019 by a2k

[Firepower]

4 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

24-25% Sun drops so far. Maybe first one was a more deflated Fri/Sat due to...whatever fears, and last weekend we had a Mon holiday, but even with that in mind, a 30% drop wouldn't be outrageous. That would put it close enough that you have to wonder if WB will go out with an even 30 estimate?

If Saturday is around 12.5, they could, but even if they make conservative estimate, it could go up with actuals.

[baumer]

7 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

No major change, except Joker may be 250k more. Parasite, Lighthouse and JoJo may drop as per current reported numbers. 

 

JoJo 118k

Lighthouse 140k

Parasite 435k

 

Do you have any numbers for Clerks?

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Hustlers will get a 3.2x multi at 106 dom (5.3x it's prod budget).

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

Abominable needs 62 dom for 3x multi and will barely get there or may fall a little short! Surprising for a non-sequel animation with a small non-saturated opening. 

 

Audience RT is 93% (95% verified)! Smallfoot legged it to 3.6x with a similar opening (23 ow, 83.2 dom).

[Valonqar]

can they AWIT Downton to 100M or too big a gap?

[HeadShot]

MAL2 was never going to smash. I excepted it to bomb like Alice 2. 500 million would be ok... Still a bad idea to make a sequel. 

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

This is too harsh to cross 100m, guess will be like another rocketman

[sfran43]

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by sfran43

[a2k]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

This is too harsh to cross 100m, guess will be like another rocketman

ROCKETMAN had a smaller weekend taking it to 89.0 (same as DA current cume - 88.6 after 3.1 weekend) but it had summer weekdays

 

Jul 5–7	10	$2,612,554	-33.6%	1,409	-594	$1,854	$89,014,938	6
Jul 12–14	12	$1,685,106	-35.5%	1,332	-77	$1,265	$91,960,016	7
Jul 19–21	14	$964,239	-42.8%	720	-612	$1,339	$93,981,610	8
Jul 26–28	14	$468,543	-51.4%	518	-202	$905	$94,952,460	9
Aug 2–4	15	$294,009	-37.3%	518	-	$568	$95,555,558	10
Aug 9–11	24	$148,723	-49.4%	181	-337	$822	$95,899,640	11
Aug 16–18	29	$101,715	-31.6%	160	-21	$636	$96,089,685	12
Aug 23–25	33	$71,468	-29.7%	118	-42	$606	$96,227,407	13
Aug 30–Sep 1	45	$57,633	-19.4%	102	-16	$565	$96,332,928	14
Aug 30–Sep 2	45	$74,832	+4.7%	102	-16	$734	$96,350,127	14

[Valonqar]

12 minutes ago, HeadShot said:

MAL2 was never going to smash. I excepted it to bomb like Alice 2. 500 million would be ok... Still a bad idea to make a sequel. 

since Disney remakes are generally terrible one or two exceptions aside, this isn't a bad news. 

[sfran43]

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by sfran43