Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[Felandria]

A very solid number for 2Zombie 2Land

[Xftg123]

From what I've seen in the Overseas BO thread, Mal2 and Joker are pretty much neck-in-neck. There are some places where Joker is doing more than Mal2 and vice versa where Mal2 is doing more than Joker. Curious to see how it all goes when Sunday hits. Seeing how the first Maleficent made 517M overseas, so I think it's probably going to drop somewhere in the 300M or so range.

Edited October 20, 2019 by Xftg123

[RJ 95]

48 minutes ago, Xftg123 said:

From what I've seen in the Overseas BO thread, Mal2 and Joker are pretty much neck-in-neck. There are some places where Joker is doing more than Mal2 and vice versa where Mal2 is doing more than Joker. Curious to see how it all goes when Sunday hits. Seeing how the first Maleficent made 517M overseas, so I think it's probably going to drop somewhere in the 300M or so range.

Mal2 will win in SK, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, and Southeast Asia. Joker will win in Japan, Germany and France. UK, Spain and Italy will be close. Rest of Europe ( probably Mal2) , and South America ( probably Joker) will decide who will win that. Will be close but Mal2 I guess.

Edited October 20, 2019 by RJ 95

[Xftg123]

1 minute ago, RJ 95 said:

Will be close but Mal2 I guess.

Do we know how much it is numbers wise or not yet?

[RJ 95]

Just now, Xftg123 said:

Do we know how much it is numbers wise or not yet?

Of course not yet, just wait in 10-12 hours.

[Xftg123]

Overseas Predictions:

-Seeing how this is Mal2's first week, I overall think that it'll end up being somewhere in the 200-300M range overseas. 

-Seeing how Joker had a HUGE 2nd weekend overseas, I think it'll be in the 100-200M range, or maybe less than that.

Edited October 20, 2019 by Xftg123

[charlie Jatinder]

No major change, except Joker may be 250k more. Parasite, Lighthouse and JoJo may drop as per current reported numbers. 

 

JoJo 118k

Lighthouse 140k

Parasite 435k

Edited October 20, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Xftg123]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Parasite, Lighthouse and JoJo may drop as per current reported numbers. 

Man, these are all three movies that I wish could go wide  

[troyand]

33 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

JoJo 118k

Lighthouse 140k

Parasite 405k

Are these Fri or Sat numbers....?

[reddevil19]

40 minutes ago, Xftg123 said:

Overseas Predictions:

-Seeing how this is Mal2's first week, I overall think that it'll end up being somewhere in the 200-300M range overseas. 

-Seeing how Joker had a HUGE 2nd weekend overseas, I think it'll be in the 100-200M range, or maybe less than that.

What?! You're saying Mal 2 will open with 200 OS or is that your total? 

As for Joker, you're 100+ weekend? Definitely not. 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Just to expwnd on this a tad, I was thinking of how Alice2 and Slop2 didn't have much worse legs than their predecessors, despite/because of the big OW drop.    

 

Lego Movie 1 to 2 is even more similar though (69M 2014 OW legs to 250M +-10, sequel 5 years later) and the legs dropped more than I remembered. Though it got HtTYD in 3rd weekend, whereas Malificent doesn't have much competition until Frozem double feature weekend, and could feasibly get some small measure of Halloween help. 

The other thing about Maleficent 2 is that our resident daily trackers thought there might be a mid 9 for True Friday at first before it continued strong through the day and did end up over 10m for True Fri after all.  And the Sat bump was very respectable.

 

On the other hand, AWiT (to pick a film Disney literally had to drag over the 100m line) was already showing weakness by this point.

 

I know it's folly to over-interpret two days of data.  There very well could be a finite pool for Maleficent 2 that it has already almost burnt up.  On the other hand, maybe it will have decent legs.  It still is a family film.  It is calendar theme appropriate.  It seems to be getting positive WoM from those who've seen it (again unlike AWiT).

 

Not a hit by any means.  But probably too soon to write it off.  

 

[Xftg123]

28 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

What?! You're saying Mal 2 will open with 200 OS or is that your total? 

 

200-300 OS, not Domestic.

 

Domestically though the movie will probably end up doing lower than the first.

 

29 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

As for Joker, you're 100+ weekend? Definitely not. 

Yeah, overseas wise I think anywhere from 80-100M (depending on the legs) is a better chance then 100 to 200M.

[CloneWars]

Joker is killing it. 

[CloneWars]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

One key flaw of measuring a film critical reception through RT score is that never tell us how generous or how strict the critics community to a film. The score never tell us what ruler a film is assessed based on. 

 

Like in this case, Endgame had 94%, higher than Saving private ryan's 93% but there is no way both film are seen as equivalent in cinematic history. And how many critics will put Endgame in their yearly top list remain to be seen. Endgame did its 94% RT score based on its own different measurement system while different other films are assessed on different scale.  

One film is considered a classic. The other is the highest grossing film of all time. They both have strong merits in cinematic history.

[RJ 95]

19 minutes ago, Xftg123 said:

200-300 OS, not Domestic.

 

Domestically though the movie will probably end up doing lower than the first.

 

Yeah, overseas wise I think anywhere from 80-100M (depending on the legs) is a better chance then 100 to 200M.

I would be very very happy, if Joker can get 80m let alone 90 or more OS this weekend 

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by RJ 95

[Xftg123]

@RJ 95

 

I'm still surprised with how much Joker made overseas during its second weekend.

[Firepower]

Excellent Joker increase, should be close to 30 after all.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Excellent Joker increase, should be close to 30 after all.

24-25% Sun drops so far. Maybe first one was a more deflated Fri/Sat due to...whatever fears, and last weekend we had a Mon holiday, but even with that in mind, a 30% drop wouldn't be outrageous. That would put it close enough that you have to wonder if WB will go out with an even 30 estimate?

[a2k]

5 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

@a2k what are probable legs for Maleficent. can it pull 3x to 110 approx.

1st one did 3.48x so 3x+ is feasible for MAL1 imo.

 

At times sequels have fallen in legs a lot despite good reception - GOTG2 2.66x, GOTG1 3.5x+, but the growth in numbers was big. JW2's 2.8x+ wasn't a huge drop from JW1's 3.1x+ but with smaller numbers.

 

37 ow and 3.0-3.2x gives 111-118 dom.

[Bart Allen]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

M2 14.25

Joker 12.25

Zombies 9.75

 

Those are the numbers for Saturday? That's just a -44.4% decrease for Joker from last Saturday which is pretty amazing! Save for the Friday after the opening Friday it's not gone below -50%.