NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

Simple math. The more votes there are the harder it becomes for additional votes to change the score. So it's not improbable at all. In fact many movies stay at the same score for a long time after opening.

that's once when number of additional votes start to reduce in comparison to existing votes. tros, probably due to the holiday schedule and a huge number of folks seeing it consistently (did 30m+ wed and thu each) was adding enough additional votes to expect fluctuation to the existing number. probable but does catch one's eye.

[lorddemaxus]

19 minutes ago, Warlock said:

That exactly 86% of people rate it above 3.5+/5, for the last 12 days straight, doesn't seem at all odd to you? Not say, 83-89 depending on the day? Maybe I'm the crazy one here.

No, because when numbers get so large, it's harder for one person to make a difference. You guys should have made a count of the avg score if you want your argument to have credibility.

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, a2k said:

that's once when number of additional votes start to reduce in comparison to existing votes. tros, probably due to the holiday schedule and a huge number of folks seeing it consistently (did 30m+ wed and thu each) was adding enough additional votes to expect fluctuation to the existing number. probable but does catch one's eye.

By Christmas Eve it was at 42k, now at 76k. And since you'd expect newer votes to have a ratio that correlates with existing votes, it becomes even less suspicious. Plus the RT score correlates pretty well with the PostTrak and Cinemascore.

[ZackM]

By the time you get to 15000 votes you already have a highly reliable sample size.  Imagine you have a weighted coin and you flip it 15000 times.  86% of the time it lands on heads.  You would expect the next 60000 flips to give a result that is nearly identical.

Edited January 1, 2020 by ZackM

[ZackM]

Anyways, I think 15.5M for Star Wars today.

Edited January 2, 2020 by ZackM

[Warlock]

21 minutes ago, ZackM said:

By the time you get to 15000 votes you already have a highly reliable sample size.

If it was truly random sampling. But it isn't. The first people to see and review it will also be the keenest fans and therefore the most biased. The more people see it over time, the more that demographic skews to the general audience/populace and less biased the reviews will be. You would expect to see a shift.

 

Here is The Last Jedi and IMDB (with about 7,000 reviews, granted) but over time. 

https://ibb.co/9wYSQZH

Edited January 2, 2020 by Warlock
Added URL Image of TLJ_IMDB_History

[ZackM]

Just now, Warlock said:

If it was truly random sampling. But it isn't. The first people to see and review it will also be the keenest fans and therefore the most biased. The more people see it over time, the more that demographic skews to the general audience/populace and less biased the reviews will be.

Star Wars fans have never had trouble shitting on Star Wars movies.

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, ZackM said:

By the time you get to 15000 votes you already have a highly reliable sample size.  Imagine you have a weighted coin and you flip it 15000 times.  86% of the time it lands on heads.  You would expect the next 60000 flips to give a result that is nearly identical.

unlike a coin-flip here there's a subjective component : the opinion of less involved folks tends to come in later. for an aud score to reduce a bit as time goes by is accepted as those tend to see and vote for it sooner are the ones who have been loyal and inclined to like it. TLJ started low off the bat going by how the fan-base reacted but most movies start high due to loyal base and reduce eventually.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

unlike a coin-flip here there's a subjective component : the opinion of less involved folks tends to come in later. for an aud score to reduce a bit as time goes by is accepted as those tend to see and vote for it sooner are the ones who have been loyal and inclined to like it. TLJ started low off the bat going by how the fan-base reacted but most movies start high due to loyal base and reduce eventually.

TROS imdb score has also been flat for a while, are we saying that the imdb score is manipulated by Disney as well? Like its predecessor, it was a highly divisive movie with the fanbase and thus didn't receive the honeymoon that well-received franchise films get.

[Agafin]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

unlike a coin-flip here there's a subjective component : the opinion of less involved folks tends to come in later. for an aud score to reduce a bit as time goes by is accepted as those tend to see and vote for it sooner are the ones who have been loyal and inclined to like it. TLJ started low off the bat going by how the fan-base reacted but most movies start high due to loyal base and reduce eventually.

That might be true for DC or Marvel but not for Star Wars. As someone who often browses reddit, I can tell you that no one hates Star Wars movies more than its own fans.

[ZackM]

11 minutes ago, Warlock said:

If it was truly random sampling. But it isn't. The first people to see and review it will also be the keenest fans and therefore the most biased. The more people see it over time, the more that demographic skews to the general audience/populace and less biased the reviews will be.

 

Here is The Last Jedi and IMDB (with about 7,000 reviews, granted) but over time. 

https://ibb.co/9wYSQZH

TLJ's RT score is a perfect case study for how to spot unreliable sampling.  Using archived images of TLJ's score over time relative to the number of votes you'll find wildly diverging results from different samples along the way.

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Anyways, I think 15.5M for Star Wars today.

close to 17.5% bump.

 

Hobbit x-mas wed +77% (after -33% tue); ny wed +41% (after -15% tue)

TROS x-mas wed +59% (after -31% tue); ny wed +17.5% (after -14% tue)

 

Hobbit was a week deeper into the run, while TROS 1st week was like an extended ow so front-loading has been visible.

[MagnarTheGreat]

Stamina update on the top 10 domestic movies >$200M (2015-2019):

 

Spoiler

Top 10 Highest Domestic Grossing Movie >$200M (2015 – 2019)	90% of Gross on Day	Multiplier (DG ÷ FW)	Domestic Gross	First Weekend	Release Month	Rank
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker*	10	2.20	$390.6M	$177.4M	Dec.	#6 (2019)
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	18	1.99	$330.4M	$166.0M	Mar.	#8 (2016)
It: Chapter Two	23	2.32	$211.6M	$91.1M	Sep.	#10 (2019)
Justice League	23	2.44	$229.0M	$93.8M	Nov.	#10 (2017)
Captain America: Civil War	23	2.28	$408.1M	$179.1M	May	#3 (2016)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	23	2.82	$620.2M	$220.0M	Dec.	#1 (2017)
Furious 7	24	2.40	$353.0M	$147.2M	Apr.	#5 (2015)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	25	3.43	$532.2M	$155.1M	Dec.	#1 (2016)
Avengers: Endgame	25	2.40	$858.4M	$357.1M	Apr.	#1 (2019)
Avengers: Age of Ultron	26	2.40	$459.0M	$191.3M	May	#3 (2015)
It	28	2.65	$327.5M	$123.4M	Sep.	#7 (2017)
Spectre	29	2.84	$200.1M	$70.4M	Nov.	#10 (2015)
Thor: Ragnarok	29	2.57	$315.1M	$122.7M	Nov.	#8 (2017)
Deadpool 2	29	2.54	$318.5M	$125.5M	May	#6 (2018)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	29	2.82	$417.7M	$148.0M	Jun.	#4 (2018)
Finding Dory	29	3.60	$486.3M	$135.1M	Jun.	#2 (2016)
Suicide Squad	30	2.43	$325.1M	$133.7M	Aug.	#9 (2016)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	30	2.66	$389.8M	$146.5M	May	#5 (2017)
The Lion King	30	2.83	$543.6M	$191.8M	Jul.	#2 (2019)
Avengers: Infinity War	30	2.63	$678.8M	$257.7M	Apr.	#2 (2018)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	30	3.78	$936.7M	$248.0M	Dec.	#1 (2015)
Ant-Man and the Wasp	31	2.86	$216.6M	$75.8M	Jul.	#9 (2018)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – P2	31	2.74	$281.7M	$102.7M	Nov.	#7 (2015)
Aquaman	31	4.94	$335.1M	$67.9M	Dec.	#5 (2018)
Minions	31	2.90	$336.0M	$115.7M	Jul.	#6 (2015)
Deadpool	31	2.74	$363.1M	$132.4M	Feb.	#6 (2016)
Spider-Man: Far From Home	31	4.22	$390.5M	$92.6M	Jul.	#7 (2019)
Frozen II*	31	3.30	$430.1M	$130.3M	Nov.	#4 (2019)
Beauty and the Beast	31	2.88	$504.0M	$174.8M	Mar.	#2 (2017)
Jurassic World	31	3.12	$652.3M	$208.8M	Jun.	#2 (2015)
Cinderella	32	2.96	$201.2M	$67.9M	Mar.	#9 (2015)
Sing	32	7.67	$270.4M	$35.3M	Dec.	#10 (2016)
Joker*	32	3.47	$333.5M	$96.2M	Oct.	#9 (2019)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout	36	3.60	$220.2M	$61.2M	Jul.	#8 (2018)
Spider-Man: Homecoming	36	2.86	$334.2M	$117.0M	Jul.	#6 (2017)
Incredibles 2	36	3.33	$608.6M	$182.7M	Jun.	#3 (2018)
Despicable Me 3	37	3.65	$264.6M	$72.4M	Jun.	#9 (2017)
The Secret Life of Pets	37	3.53	$368.4M	$104.4M	Jul.	#4 (2016)
Toy Story 4	37	3.59	$434.0M	$120.9M	Jun.	#3 (2019)
Captain Marvel	38	2.78	$426.8M	$153.4M	Mar.	#5 (2019)
Black Panther	38	3.47	$700.1M	$202.0M	Feb.	#1 (2018)
Inside Out	39	3.94	$356.5M	$90.4M	Jun.	#4 (2015)
The Jungle Book	39	3.53	$364.0M	$103.3M	Apr.	#5 (2016)
Wonder Woman	41	4.00	$412.6M	$103.3M	Jun.	#3 (2017)
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch	42	4.00	$270.6M	$67.6M	Nov.	#7 (2018)
The Martian	44	4.21	$228.4M	$54.3M	Oct.	#8 (2015)
Zootopia	45	4.55	$341.3M	$75.1M	Mar.	#7 (2016)
Aladdin	45	3.89	$355.6M	$91.5M	May	#8 (2019)
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle	54	11.18	$404.5M	$36.2M	Dec.	#4 (2017)
Bohemian Rhapsody	69	4.24	$216.4M	$51.1M	Nov.	#10 (2018)
average of table	33	3.40
median of table	31	2.93
* highlighted in yellow: numbers are not final / still in theaters
display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand
new movie estimates current as of December 31, 2019

 

I dunno if Joker is actually still playing anywhere, last numbers available are from December 23.

 

Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier	Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier
January	2.88	2.66	July	3.30	3.22
February	2.81	2.73	August	3.22	3.00
March	3.02	2.89	September	2.87	2.75
April	2.76	2.65	October	3.02	2.75
May	2.95	2.82	November	3.43	3.23
June	3.13	3.01	December	5.45	4.76
all (1025 movies)				3.21	2.93
excludes 2018 releases
highest month in blue; lowest month in red
numbers from top openings (2008-2017) as of August 16, 2018

 

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by MagnarTheGreat

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

TROS imdb score has also been flat for a while, are we saying that the imdb score is manipulated by Disney as well? Like its predecessor, it was a highly divisive movie with the fanbase and thus didn't receive the honeymoon that well-received franchise films get.

IMDB score is consistent with SW8 and the reception has been similar.

 

Looking at unverified Aud RT, IMDB, Metacritic

SW7    86%    7.9/10    6.8/10

SW8    44%    7.0/10    4.4/10

SW9    78%    6.9/10    5.0/10

 

SW9 RT Aud looks a bit off imo. 

(86% would make it look even more off but other's didn't have verified score so used unverified)

 

 

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, Warlock said:

II stated that the President of Fandago, Media, used to work for Disney. That is correct. What about that is incorrect?

 

1 hour ago, Warlock said:

I didn't say that, I just said it was an interesting fact. 

 

You didn't have to say it.  I

1 hour ago, Warlock said:

No, but 86% is a remotely believable score, for the general population that aren't paying attention to the box office.

 

That exactly 86% of people rate it above 3.5+/5, for the last 12 days straight, doesn't seem at all odd to you? Not say, 83-89 depending on the day? Maybe I'm the crazy one here.

 

According to the wayback machine, Jumanji was at 87% after 6k reveiws on Dec 17th. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20191217154808/https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/jumanji_the_next_level

 

Now, 14 days later, it is at...87% after 20k reviews!  Weird huh?  Where are all the conspiracy videos for that one?  

Edited January 2, 2020 by Deep Wang

[Warlock]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

IMDB score is consistent with SW8 and the reception has been similar.

 

Looking at unverified Aud RT, IMDB, Metacritic

SW7    86%    7.9/10    6.8/10

SW8    44%    7.0/10    4.4/10

SW9    78%    6.9/10    5.0/10

 

SW9 RT Aud looks a bit off imo. 

(86% would make it look even more off but other's didn't have verified score so used unverified)

 

 

Nice summary. 

[Warlock]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

You didn't have to say it.  I

 

According to the wayback machine, Jumanji was at 87% after 6k reveiws on Dec 17th. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20191221002959/https://rottentomatoes.com/m/jumanji_the_next_level

 

Now, 14 days later, it is at...87% after 20k reviews!  Weird huh?  Where are all the conspiracy videos for that one?  

That does seem suspicious. I liked J3, it seemed like a good family movie. I'd say that 87% actually seems a bit low for its target demographic to rate as positive. Great name btw.

Edited January 2, 2020 by Warlock

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

You didn't have to say it.  I

 

According to the wayback machine, Jumanji was at 87% after 6k reveiws on Dec 17th. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20191221002959/https://rottentomatoes.com/m/jumanji_the_next_level

 

Now, 14 days later, it is at...87% after 20k reviews!  Weird huh?  Where are all the conspiracy videos for that one?  

probably cause it's legs will match the RT aud reception 😃

Edited January 2, 2020 by a2k

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, a2k said:

IMDB score is consistent with SW8 and the reception has been similar.

 

Looking at unverified Aud RT, IMDB, Metacritic

SW7    86%    7.9/10    6.8/10

SW8    44%    7.0/10    4.4/10

SW9    78%    6.9/10    5.0/10

 

SW9 RT Aud looks a bit off imo. 

(86% would make it look even more off but other's didn't have verified score so used unverified)

 

 

Does not make sense to compare unverified scores between eras, since verified is now the default score many trolls wouldn't bother to target the unverified. I bet the unverified score for TLJ would be a lot higher if it was released in the verified era.

1 minute ago, a2k said:

probably cause it's legs will match the RT aud reception 😃

And so will TROS. Once you take into account fan frontloading and the score being worse for a fan-driven film than a GA affair like J3.

Edited January 2, 2020 by Menor

[Avatree]

Who wants to take bets that this new guy has come from Reddit. Such stupid toxicity.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Avatree