NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

[JohnnyGossamer]

RoS is looking locked for 500 to 520... So about 100+ short of TLJ DOM.

[1Robert1]

1 hour ago, misafeco said:

Tue: 13.1M (TLJ: 27.7M)
Wed: 16.8M (TLJ: 21.8M)
Thu: 8.8M (-48%) (TLJ: 19.5M)

At this point TLJ is 48.5M ahead of TROS

 

TLJ 3rd weekend was 52.5M. Let's say TROS has a 32.3M weekend (which is optimistic, need very good Fri/Sat jumps). Monday will be 3M at best, while TLJ had NYD 14.3M.

 

TLJ at this point was at close to 540M and added 80M more.

TROS is 80M behind (460M) with considerably lower dailies. In this case 500 would probably not be a problem, but not much higher. If the weekend is worse than expected (28M or so) I think we can start worrying about 500M.

Last Jedi made 47.5 m after Jan 5-7 weekend. In Sunday it made 6.8m, and during monday 1.8m.

 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

19 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Is Jumanji still on track for 300M DOM? I really want a 3rd one after that ending.

On $202m after a £10m NYD.

 

Also about Half Billion international, has released almost everywhere now. Reported budget is £125m though so looking at a pretty decent profit at this stage regardless of what will still likely be some decent legs domestic and a few dozen million still left to come internationally.

 

I'd say they could happily green light another sequel if they wanted regardless of what happens from here. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

I can't imagine Jumanji won't get another. Even if it doesn't hit 300 DOM, it's gonna get damn close. WW is looking like something around 750+, no?

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I can't imagine Jumanji won't get another. Even if it doesn't hit 300 DOM, it's gonna get damn close. WW is looking like something around 750+, no?

it's current markets should take it past 700 with ease imo.

had a 62 os weekend taking it to 296 so 400-425 os current markets is looking good. on top of that it has 3 markets where jum1 had done 30, yet to come. so 20+ for those will give os of 425-450. plus say, 290-310 dom

[redfirebird2008]

38 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

RoS is looking locked for 500 to 520... So about 100+ short of TLJ DOM.

 

Nope, it's going to 620 because we said so. -- Deadline

[Madhuvan]

Tros box office is very uneventful. It is neither flopping nor breaking out. 

 

Same with other movies none of them is breaking out this Christmas. 

J3 and F2 are having very predictable performance. 

Cats was flop from start. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

TROS could definitely miss 500. I think people are being a bit too optimistic about the post holiday holds. I think it will go to 490 or so without a push.

[Madhuvan]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

TROS could definitely miss 500. I think people are being a bit too optimistic about the post holiday holds. I think it will go to 490 or so without a push.

Just want it to be lower than F2 to heal my Frozen Heart. 

[pepsa]

9 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Tros box office is very uneventful. It is neither flopping nor breaking out. 

 

Same with other movies none of them is breaking out this Christmas. 

J3 and F2 are having very predictable performance. 

Cats was flop from start. 

Tbh when J2 came out I never thought the next one would go over $300m DOM the legs the first movie had were insane so I thought it was a Alice in wonderland / pets kind of fluke.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Just want it to be lower than F2 to heal my Frozen Heart. 

I'm sure it could be. I had it at 511 on Sunday but it has kept missing my daily targets.

[stripe]

1 hour ago, 1Robert1 said:

In 2013 with same calendar Hobbit din't make 2x of 3-5 weekend. So far TROS had worse legs than Hobbit.

 

1. Different era.

2. SW9 is bigger so more dificult to have the same increases and drops.

3. Hobbit 2 opened a week earlier.

4. Hobbit 2 had less direct competition.

5. Except for the first week (obviously due to upfront demand)  SW9 is more or less following Smaug's run.

[Valonqar]

KO is a mini story of the end of the year. 

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

KO is a mini story of the end of the year. 

it's a lock for the Boffy nomination for sure.

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Avatree

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

1. Different era.

2. SW9 is bigger so more dificult to have the same increases and drops.

3. Hobbit 2 opened a week earlier.

4. Hobbit 2 had less direct competition.

5. Except for the first week (obviously due to upfront demand)  SW9 is more or less following Smaug's run.

5 is wrong. Monday drop and Wednesday bump from this week were far worse than Smaug. 

[wildphantom]

29 minutes ago, Menor said:

TROS could definitely miss 500. I think people are being a bit too optimistic about the post holiday holds. I think it will go to 490 or so without a push.

if it posts over 30 this weekend and is at around 450, it can’t miss 500 imo. 

[Valonqar]

yeah, it's not missing 500M but it won't go much over either. About 100M drop from TLJ give or take.

[1Robert1]

21 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

1. Different era.

2. SW9 is bigger so more dificult to have the same increases and drops.

3. Hobbit 2 opened a week earlier.

4. Hobbit 2 had less direct competition.

5. Except for the first week (obviously due to upfront demand)  SW9 is more or less following Smaug's run.

Just like Menor said 5 is untrue. 1-4 doesn't prove that TROS should have better multi than Smaug. Besides in my previous post i wrote that Last jedi made 47.5 after jan 5-7. LJ and TROS aren't from different era and both of this movies are big, and compete with jumanji. 

[Justin4125]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

5 is wrong. Monday drop and Wednesday bump from this week were far worse than Smaug. 

TROS is actually following LOTR Two Towers (2002 was the same calender-wise as 2013 and 2019) this week very closely as opposed to Smaug

 

TROS                              LOTR TT                               Smaug

Mon (-28%)                    Mon (-31.7%)                      Mon (-22.8%)

Tues (-14.3%)                 Tues (-16.2%)                       Tues (-15.1%)

Wed (+27% est)              Wed (+30.8%)                     Wed (+41%)

 

In fact, if Jat's estimates hold, TROS's Wed/Mon ratio is identical to that of LOTR TT  

 

I find it unlikely that TROS will follow TT's multiple from this Sunday onwards (in which case it would comfortably pass 500m), but still, its weaker drops/jumps midweek are right in line with TT 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Justin4125

[sfran43]