NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

[lorddemaxus]

35 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It's good.  Not great and not terrible.  For a comparison - Joker is 88.

 

Around 80 would be mediocre and sub 70 would be terrible with the new verified system.

Ok, terrible might have been hyperbolic but I still think its below average.

 

Both Joker and TROS also got a B+ on cinemascore but clearly a B+ isn't a good score for TROS. Joker is a darker film so a B+ and an 88% makes sense. But I think anything less than a 90% isn't good for a Star Wars film (which are also more fanboy driven than Joker). If it had at least decent WoM, it would be in the 90s. I'm surprised by Jumanji 2's 87%. The movie's performance is showing way better WoM than that.

[Brainbug]

56 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

All Time Domestic Inflation Adjusted Box Office

Rank	Released	Movie	Total Box Office
1	1977	Star Wars Ep. IV: A New Hope	$1,497,057,186
2	1997	Titanic	$1,240,601,558
3	1982	ET: The Extra-Terrestrial	$1,224,582,698
4	2015	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	$1,006,872,847

 

It's safe to say that TROS wouldn't reach half of TFA.

 

I guess Jaws is gone with the Wind of inflation-adjusting formats that dont account for the exorcism of The Ten Commandmants or the Sound of Music from Doctor Zhivago.

[Valonqar]

was the forum down?

[misafeco]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

was the forum down?

For me as well.

[1Robert1]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I guess Jaws is gone with the Wind of inflation-adjusting formats that dont account for the exorcism of The Ten Commandmants or the Sound of Music from Doctor Zhivago.

All of this movies had multiple releases.

[Valonqar]

yeah, multiple releases, different times (less competition to fend off including no TV, streaming, video, etc so cinema was the only place to see a movie). Inflation adjustment isn't completely fair especially for very old movies. Within a decade or even 2 is fine but beyond that it isn't the real picture.

[TalismanRing]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Chart Index

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%YD	%LW	Thr	Per Thr	Total Gross	D
1	(1)	Star Wars: The Rise of Sk…	Walt Disney	$13,114,000	-14%	-35%	4,406	$2,976	$390,602,536	12
2	(2)	Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony Pictures	$8,285,000	n/c	+22%	4,227	$1,960	$192,076,805	19
3	(4)	Little Women	Sony Pictures	$4,100,000	-4%		3,308	$1,239	$37,605,000	7
4	(3)	Frozen II	Walt Disney	$3,994,000	-10%	+16%	3,265	$1,223	$430,098,939	40
-	(5)	Spies in Disguise	20th Century…	$3,643,000	+7%		3,502	$1,040	$29,286,960	7
-	(6)	Knives Out	Lionsgate	$2,930,000	+18%	+61%	2,022	$1,449	$115,726,694	35
-	(-)	Bombshell	Lionsgate	$1,290,000	+21%	+48%	1,480	$872	$18,109,144	19
-	(-)	Richard Jewell	Warner Bros.	$1,040,000	+54%	+89%	2,502	$416	$17,854,186	19
-	(-)	Ford v. Ferrari	20th Century…	$565,000	+17%	+11%	793	$712	$107,186,378	47
-	(-)	A Beautiful Day in the Ne…	Sony Pictures	$485,000	+32%	+14%	1,014	$478	$56,721,042	40
-	(-)	Jojo Rabbit	Fox Searchlight	$66,000	-9%	+38%	208	$317	$21,058,553	75
-	(-)	A Hidden Life	Fox Searchlight	$61,000	+17%	+50%	118	$517	$877,311	19
-	(-)	Midway	Lionsgate	$45,900	+18%	+28%	142	$323	$56,278,720	54
-	(-)	Playing with Fire	Paramount Pi…	$42,000	+5%	+32%	188	$223	$44,150,929	54
-	(-)	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	Walt Disney	$29,000	-21%	+52%	155	$187	$113,294,043	75
-	(-)	Just Mercy	Warner Bros.	$23,000	+21%		4	$5,750	$269,072	7
-	(-)	No Safe Spaces	Atlas Distri…	$2,898	-20%	+6%	14	$207	$1,159,359	68
-	(-)	En Brazos de un Asesino	Lionsgate	$340	-57%	-20%	18	$19	$422,335	26

 

Knives Out PTA is only lower than SW9 and J3 (wide release) .  It just keeps chugging along

 

[1Robert1]

I just compared 2 movies released in 4 years...

[a2k]

pro.BO weekend forecast

optimistic for SW, pessimistic on JUM one can say with some confidence.

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 5	% Change from Last Wknd
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	Disney / Lucasfilm	$36,600,000	$454,600,000	-49%
Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony / Columbia	$20,000,000	$226,500,000	-43%
Little Women (2019)	Sony / Columbia	$12,900,000	$57,800,000	-23%
Frozen II	Disney	$11,500,000	$450,200,000	-32%
Spies In Disguise	Fox	$9,000,000	$45,100,000	-33%
The Grudge	Sony / Columbia	$8,500,000	$8,500,000	NEW
Knives Out	Lionsgate	$7,100,000	$126,800,000	-28%
Uncut Gems	A24	$6,700,000	$35,600,000	-30%
Bombshell	Lionsgate	$3,300,000	$23,400,000	-31%
Cats	Universal	$2,600,000	$24,100,000	-46%

[Brainbug]

19 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

All of this movies had multiple releases.

 

Thats correct but you didnt say that in your post. And if its not clear that you want to show a list of only first-release-adjusted runs, that can lead to confusion.

[Jiffy]

1 hour ago, Marek the Jedi said:

totaly agree with you! his trolling couple of weeks already about TROS numbers....

I'd guess there may be more thread-bans coming that way.

[Warlock]

3 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

From next week onwards, Deadline will not be able to spin the box office TRoS. 

 

Many people on Internet are thinking that Tros is doing better than TLJ just because of media narrative. 

I wonder how will Internet react when they come to know it's not passing 500m Domestic. 

 

I really hate the spin that's going around for few days. Even Grace Randolph thinks that Tros is doing very good and she overreact on everything. 

 

I think it will cross 500m, even if the Mouse House have to push it past forcefully. But left to it's own devices, it would end up in the high 400s.

[Legion Again]

For those who were annoyed by Bart Allen’s repetitive behavior but for some reason didn’t have them on ignore, it appears that they hit 10 warning points and are gone for a month. 

[misafeco]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

For those who were annoyed by Bart Allen’s repetitive behavior but for some reason didn’t have them on ignore, it appears that they hit 10 warning points and are gone for a month. 

So he will be back on 1st of Feb to celebrate TROS passing 500M DOM. 

[REC]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Ok, terrible might have been hyperbolic but I still think its below average.

 

Both Joker and TROS also got a B+ on cinemascore but clearly a B+ isn't a good score for TROS. Joker is a darker film so a B+ and an 88% makes sense. But I think anything less than a 90% isn't good for a Star Wars film (which are also more fanboy driven than Joker). If it had at least decent WoM, it would be in the 90s. I'm surprised by Jumanji 2's 87%. The movie's performance is showing way better WoM than that.

Is it possible that the RT audience score just isn’t all that trustworthy, or a very good representative sample of what people actually think?

 

The all audiences score is more like 78, and the top critics is more like 49.  Personally I think the true value is closer to the average of these numbers.  I’m more in line with top critics, but I would concede some people will think “that movie was a pretty-OK movie” meaning the truth is probably closer to mid-60s.

[ZackM]

10 minutes ago, REC said:

Is it possible that the RT audience score just isn’t all that trustworthy, or a very good representative sample of what people actually think?

 

The all audiences score is more like 78, and the top critics is more like 49.  Personally I think the true value is closer to the average of these numbers.  I’m more in line with top critics, but I would concede some people will think “that movie was a pretty-OK movie” meaning the truth is probably closer to mid-60s.

None of those scores tell you how good those people think the movie is.  It just tells you what % of them think it's above some arbitrary threshold.  IMDB's score graph is much better for understanding how an audience rates a movie.

[Avatree]

2 hours ago, a2k said:

RT Aud scores overall seem inflated, even unverified ones. 

 

movie verified unverified

TROS 86% 78%

JUM2 87% 85%

LW 93% 91%

F2 92% 90%

SiD 91% 90%

KO 92% 90%

BS 83% 79%

UG 54% 55%

CATS 54% 47%

RJ 96% 94%

 

UG and CATS are low but CATS at least seems inflated even at it's score

Cats does not seem inflated at 47%....?

The film seems to please enough of its core audience who are fans of the musical. Tbh if you like a particular musical, you will probably(?) enjoy a film adaptation regardless because you enjoy seeing your favourite songs in cinema.

 

Cats and Uncut Gems got identical C+ cinemascores btw.

 

you say you think the score are inflated since those movies are all in 80s/90s... maybe just that many people enjoyed them?

Maybe people are more likely to review on RT if they really loved it, and if indifferent to it they don't bother..? Especially when to have a "legit" review on RT you have to submit your tickets as proof I believe.

[REC]

9 minutes ago, ZackM said:

None of those scores tell you how good those people think the movie is.  It just tells you what % of them think it's above some arbitrary threshold.  IMDB's score graph is much better for understanding how an audience rates a movie.

And IMDb gives it a 6.9/10, which matches my expectation that a fair score is mid 60s.  

[a2k]

 

27 minutes ago, REC said:

Is it possible that the RT audience score just isn’t all that trustworthy, or a very good representative sample of what people actually think?

 

The all audiences score is more like 78, and the top critics is more like 49.  Personally I think the true value is closer to the average of these numbers.  I’m more in line with top critics, but I would concede some people will think “that movie was a pretty-OK movie” meaning the truth is probably closer to mid-60s.

fwiw,

 

metacritic score out of 10 - # ratings | imdb score out of 10 - #ratings

JUM1 6.7 - 593 | 6.9 - 274.6k

JUM2 6.4 - 91 | 7.0 - 42.7k

 

SW7 6.8 - 7319 | 7.9 - 815.6k

SW8 4.4 - 8562 | 7.0 - 507.9k

SW9 5.0 - 3787 | 6.9 - 182.7k

Edited January 1, 2020 by a2k

[Avatree]

I was going to politely ask how it's a statistical impossibility, and why you think it's unlikely / impossible for 86% of the reviews be positive. Then I saw your final beyond-retarded statement and clearly arguing with you will not get either of us anywhere, since I'm sure you are aware that Rotten Tomatoes is owned by Comcast / Universal.  BYE.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2020 by Avatree