The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[ZeroHour]

Guess the big question now is whether it moves up a week. 

[upriser7]

Feel like it makes lot of sense to move up a week

[WittyUsername]

I guess this can have IMAX screens now. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I’m expecting this to be pushed too (same for most of the November-December schedule). The hook of the movie’s marketing has been the dynamic between the three leads, the studio is absolutely gonna want to take advantage of that with a press tour.

[CoolioD1]

Brie Larson probably happy about maybe this movie coming out with no promo tour the way folks were on her during the last one.

[SpiderByte]

22 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I’m expecting this to be pushed too (same for most of the November-December schedule). The hook of the movie’s marketing has been the dynamic between the three leads, the studio is absolutely gonna want to take advantage of that with a press tour.

I think TV spots playing means they plan on keeping it where it is. Especially now with a clearer field.

[Arlborn]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

upping my prediction to $85M OW, $220M DOM + $280M OS = $500M WW. With IMAX now locked and Dune moving, I don't see The Marvels missing the $400M mark 

I never understood how anyone even thought this could miss the 400M mark to begin with.

 

Now I'm thinking it does in the 800M range, especially if it moves up a little bit. Any chance of that?

[SpiderByte]

It's a narrow window (even narrower if it moves up) but if the strike ends in October there's a chance they could just blitz it

[YM!]

Thinking 275/600 for Marvels which is a 45/55 split, it’s a similar fall from WF to BP from CM without China or Russia. Don’t want to be too bullish unless reviews are at least good. 

[toutvabien]

They are so moving this to Nov 3rd now

[emoviefan]

I know it with the current MCU expecting Guardians 3 quality is too much to ask but please be a hell of a lot better than Thor L& T Quantamania and Eterrnals .

[TheFlatLannister]

41 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I never understood how anyone even thought this could miss the 400M mark to begin with.

 

Now I'm thinking it does in the 800M range, especially if it moves up a little bit. Any chance of that?

I would be very shocked if this does over $700M, even with great WOM. But i could wrong and this does something crazy like $1B. IMO if everything goes perfectly, I could see just above Antman 2 numbers. 

[Willowra]

1 hour ago, ZeroHour said:

Guess the big question now is whether it moves up a week. 

Unless Loki Finale moves up a week, this would stick to its date

[Willowra]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I would be very shocked if this does over $700M, even with great WOM. But i could wrong and this does something crazy like $1B. IMO if everything goes perfectly, I could see just above Antman 2 numbers. 

This must cross 500m, Iron Man 2 numbers would be better otherwise Disney's Avengers franchise would get in big trouble narrative & perception wise.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Willowra

[filmlover]

Quote

What happens now that Dune: Part Two is out of 2023? Many were expecting a seismic shift in tentpoles out of 2023, but we hear that’s not the case. It’s possible that Disney/Marvel Studios’ sequel The Marvels, currently dated for Nov. 10 could move up to Nov. 3 and take advantage of the availability of Imax screens that are being left behind by Dune: Part Two. Moving up Marvels would also give it a longer play time on large format screens before Lionsgate’s prequel The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes arrives on Nov. 17. Sony’s Marvel franchise starter, Kraven the Hunter, moved off its first weekend in October due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and hiked to Labor Day weekend 2024. Filling that vacancy is a wide break of Sony’s Gamestop meme comedy, Dumb Money, on Oct. 6.

Dune 2 Delayed Until March 2024, Other Warner Bros. Movies On Schedule – Deadline

[Squire]

3 hours ago, toutvabien said:

They are so moving this to Nov 3rd now

I suspect Disney was always hoping for Dune to move, strike or no strike. 

[ChipDerby]

This should give Disney extra incentive to get this strike over with so they can move this up and promote the hell out of it.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Marvel has to be popping some champagnes over the Dune 2 delay, because at least now it'll have IMAX for its opening weekend. Assuming of course that they don't follow suit and kick the movie into Deadpool 3's current slot as I kind of expect them to.

[TalismanRing]

4 hours ago, YM! said:

Thinking 275/600 for Marvels which is a 45/55 split, it’s a similar fall from WF to BP from CM without China or Russia. Don’t want to be too bullish unless reviews are at least good. 

 

WF lost it's lynch pin lead actor and was more of a phenomenon type run domestically than CM.   CM had a quite normal range of 2.7x multi for a first film.  Let's say it opens to $120m (22% less) and does a 2.5x over the holidays - that's $300m.  CM had a better Dom/OS split than WF so why would it be similar even losing China & Russia.

[YM!]

4 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

WF lost it's lynch pin lead actor and was more of a phenomenon type run domestically than CM.   CM had a quite normal range of 2.7x multi for a first film.  Let's say it opens to $120m (22% less) and does a 2.5x over the holidays - that's $300m.  CM had a better Dom/OS split than WF so why would it be similar even losing China & Russia.

Both hit a zeitgeist that I’m not sure it can replicate the same hype from the first, trailers views while solid aren't spectacular, Phase 4/5 wom amongst the GA being arguably the weakest for the MCU and the aforementioned 45/55 split is more or less the exact same Captain Marvel without China and Russia and most MCU movies this phase (Similar split gets it to 300/666 with that ratio or 705 with Guardians ratio of 43/57 (actually think I'll adjust upward to that 275/647)). I’m thinking a 110m OW with the aforementioned 2.5x = 275m domestic total.

 

I think if WOM is strong, marketing is ramped up and reviews are pretty good, think a 130m OW could happen, give it the same 2.5x maybe 2.6x multiple and it gets 325-340m domestic and a similar split gets it to 720m-755m.

Edited August 25, 2023 by YM!