The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[TheFlatLannister]

56 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

This is not coming close to that movies BO performance and that should not be the bar for success. This is what is going to make this thread so insufferable come Nov 10th and after.  Marvel is not in the same place it was 4 years ago. The Marvels is not riding the post infinity pre endgame wave Captain Marvel was. Can we all concede that and not treat it as doom for the MCU. 90 million opening 250 finish  with 650-700 WW is not even close to being a disaster 

There's no way this has a 40/60 or 35/65 split with China's recent performance. If DOM is $250M, WW gross will be around $550M

[emoviefan]

35 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Many people seem to be in denial of that reality though. Back in the day, fanboy wars used to be mainly between Marvel and DC fans. Nowadays it's between CBM fatigue believers and those who are in denial of that reality and pretending like it's still 2019.

 

Personally, though, I don't think this thread is insufferable at all. This is just a normal movie thread, mostly consisting of people posting TV spots/other promotions of the movie, people making predictions on the movie, and people speculating how the strike will affect its promotion.

 

Honestly the constant "this thread is so toxic and insufferable and unreadable" posts many on here is perhaps the most repetitive thing on here.

 

Like, if you think this thread is such a dumpster fire, then just...leave. I don't know what else to say. Presumably, no one is forcing you to log on here every day and complain about this thread.

yeah you  are right. The dumpster fire /insufferable  stuff  is too much. I am just a little tired of this argument that this movie doing say 650-700 WW assuming reviews are at least decent is a sign  the MCU is in serious trouble. This movie should not be a litmus test for the MCU. There are a lot of  things Feige and Co should worry about. This movie doing Okay and not massive is not one of them. This movie does not feel epic and important at all to the MCU and if it is then holy shit have they failed at the marketing of it. Just my two cents. 

[Mr Terrific]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

Many people seem to be in denial of that reality though. Back in the day, fanboy wars used to be mainly between Marvel and DC fans. Nowadays it's between CBM fatigue believers and those who are in denial of that reality and pretending like it's still 2019.

 

Personally, though, I don't think this thread is insufferable at all. This is just a normal movie thread, mostly consisting of people posting TV spots/other promotions of the movie, people making predictions on the movie, and people speculating how the strike will affect its promotion.

 

Honestly the constant "this thread is so toxic and insufferable and unreadable" posts many on here is perhaps the most repetitive thing on here.

 

Like, if you think this thread is such a dumpster fire, then just...leave. I don't know what else to say. Presumably, no one is forcing you to log on here every day and complain about this thread.

Oh good grief, man. 
You post skeptical stuff here over and over and over. Which is fine. People just question some of the skepticism. 
But.. it’s not fanboy-ish to make rational posts about the numbers. 
I challenge you to find a significant number of posters or posts that deny the market is different for cbms now. 
Has anyone posted a prediction for more than $300m domestic? That’s losing about a third of first gross (with inflation).  Everyone is agreeing drop will be significant. 
The stans are being very reasonable. 
The fatiguers are acting like this is their Super Bowl. 

[emoviefan]

14 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

Oh good grief, man. 
You post skeptical stuff here over and over and over. Which is fine. People just question some of the skepticism. 
But.. it’s not fanboy-ish to make rational posts about the numbers. 
I challenge you to find a significant number of posters or posts that deny the market is different for cbms now. 
Has anyone posted a prediction for more than $300m domestic? That’s losing about a third of first gross (with inflation).  Everyone is agreeing drop will be significant. 
The stans are being very reasonable. 
The fatiguers are acting like this is their Super Bowl. 

Could not have said it any better.

[HummingLemon496]

70 or so hours until all hell breaks loose

[Valonqar]

11 hours ago, Squire said:

IMO, 650-700 is not a disaster, but it is a disappointment. The first movie made $1.13 billion WW, which is more than any Thor, Doctor Strange, or Guardians movie ever made. If this movie doesn’t at least come close to Thor 3, it’s a disappointment. Anything less than 650 (maybe more like 600) WW is a disaster. 

 

It isn't a disappointment. People need to accept that studios are not unaware when their movies boxoffice gets inflated by external factors and then reverts back to normal numbers. CM would not have made 1.1B had it not been for the timing - extensive marketing connection to Endgame. Likewise, Skyfall, as great as it was, would not have made 1.1B either had it not been for 50th Anniversary of Bond that played all Bond movies on TV 24-7, had a popular Bond history exhibition touring the world and all living Bond actors and directors giving nostalgia interviews left and right. After that, even Blofeld and Spectre, arguably the Joker of Bond villains, couldn't help these movies reach Skyfall heights. So don't be shocked when Spiderman 4 comes well short of NWH cause it will. We know why NWH was as big as it was. That was not a normal growth but one time event boosted by the casting of old movies actors. There won't be a repeat.

 

Point being, CM franchise is likely 700-800M range realistically without once-in-a-lifetime help of Endgame/MCU Anniversary/old actors returning/other super booster. So making ariound those numbers globaly would not be a disappointment but reverting to its normal boxoffice. 

[toutvabien]

Yea, I think $700Ms would be a big win, $800Ms would be excellent and $600Ms would be decent enough. There just ain't the kind of momentum there for higher numbers than this for MCU flicks currently.

 

If this does below $600M tho... dunno what that would mean for the future of Carol Danvers.

[Youngstar]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

 

It isn't a disappointment. People need to accept that studios are not unaware when their movies boxoffice gets inflated by external factors and then reverts back to normal numbers. CM would not have made 1.1B had it not been for the timing - extensive marketing connection to Endgame. Likewise, Skyfall, as great as it was, would not have made 1.1B either had it not been for 50th Anniversary of Bond that played all Bond movies on TV 24-7, had a popular Bond history exhibition touring the world and all living Bond actors and directors giving nostalgia interviews left and right. After that, even Blofeld and Spectre, arguably the Joker of Bond villains, couldn't help these movies reach Skyfall heights. So don't be shocked when Spiderman 4 comes well short of NWH cause it will. We know why NWH was as big as it was. That was not a normal growth but one time event boosted by the casting of old movies actors. There won't be a repeat.

 

Point being, CM franchise is likely 700-800M range realistically without once-in-a-lifetime help of Endgame/MCU Anniversary/old actors returning/other super booster. So making ariound those numbers globaly would not be a disappointment but reverting to its normal boxoffice. 

I agree. That's like expecting cap 4 to reach Civil war money wise. (different cap of course, but still). I'm very excited for this movie, but anyone who thinks this will get even close to the first one is delusional.

[Mr Terrific]

Could someone identify the huge predictions for this movie? 
Has anyone guessed it will be within $75m of original domestic?

Kinda making a straw man here when the stans aren’t saying this movie will crush it. We’re saying it won’t lose 60% with inflation. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Mr Terrific
X

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, Youngstar said:

I agree. That's like expecting cap 4 to reach Civil war money wise. (different cap of course, but still). I'm very excited for this movie, but anyone who thinks this will get even close to the first one is delusional.

 

Exactly.  CW was Avengers 2.5, basically. 

[emoviefan]

4 hours ago, toutvabien said:

Yea, I think $700Ms would be a big win, $800Ms would be excellent and $600Ms would be decent enough. There just ain't the kind of momentum there for higher numbers than this for MCU flicks currently.

 

If this does below $600M tho... dunno what that would mean for the future of Carol Danvers.

Exactly a below 600 million total would be more damaging to the future of Carol Danvers than the MCU. As I have said Marvel does not seem to be treating this as some super important  movie for their long term plan. If it does the marketing has seriously dropped the ball. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I think the 60% drop predictions are silly, I want to be clear but this is the first time that I've seen a big Marvel fan acknowledge that Captain Marvel's gross was most likely inflated by Endgame hype. I remember when if you said that you were lumped in with incels who were angry at Brie Larson for saying very reasonable things about how overly white and male the film criticism space is. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

6 hours ago, toutvabien said:

Yea, I think $700Ms would be a big win, $800Ms would be excellent and $600Ms would be decent enough. There just ain't the kind of momentum there for higher numbers than this for MCU flicks currently.

 

If this does below $600M tho... dunno what that would mean for the future of Carol Danvers.

Then she'll get killed by Kang during the Kang Dynasty cold open. Simple as that really.

[Squire]

7 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

It isn't a disappointment. People need to accept that studios are not unaware when their movies boxoffice gets inflated by external factors and then reverts back to normal numbers. CM would not have made 1.1B had it not been for the timing - extensive marketing connection to Endgame. Likewise, Skyfall, as great as it was, would not have made 1.1B either had it not been for 50th Anniversary of Bond that played all Bond movies on TV 24-7, had a popular Bond history exhibition touring the world and all living Bond actors and directors giving nostalgia interviews left and right. After that, even Blofeld and Spectre, arguably the Joker of Bond villains, couldn't help these movies reach Skyfall heights. So don't be shocked when Spiderman 4 comes well short of NWH cause it will. We know why NWH was as big as it was. That was not a normal growth but one time event boosted by the casting of old movies actors. There won't be a repeat.

 

Point being, CM franchise is likely 700-800M range realistically without once-in-a-lifetime help of Endgame/MCU Anniversary/old actors returning/other super booster. So making ariound those numbers globaly would not be a disappointment but reverting to its normal boxoffice. 

If Marvels makes 700, it would match BP: WF’s high drop of 38%, and that without its star. So if Marvels drops that much or more, it very much should be viewed as a disappointment.

 

Apart from Ant Man 3, everyone is ignoring that since 2022 (i.e, post pandemic), every other MCU movie has made at least 750 WW (and most of them didn’t get a China release, like Marvels will). 
 

IMO, just because Ant Man 3 failed doesn’t meant we should expect the rest of the MCU to struggle. The performance of MCU movies before or after don’t support that. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Squire

[Flip]

i'm personally really interested to see how this film does in the MCU's stronghold countries: Mexico, South Korea, UK, and Brazil. To me it feels like Quantumania and GOTG3 were outliers in predicting what the future MCU will look like (most of the movies will be better than Quantumania but also worse than GOTG3), so I think The Marvels will set a benchmark for future performance of MCU solo movies (without spiderman since he's a different beast). In the top 4 OS markets (non-china) Captain Marvel did 152m. If the Marvels can pass 100m in those 4 markets (Mexico, SK, Brazil, and Britain) I think that's a success.

[Flip]

10 minutes ago, Squire said:

If Marvels makes 700, it would match BP: WF’s high drop of 38%, and that without its star. So if Marvels drops that much or more, it very much should be viewed as a disappointment.

 

Apart from Ant Man 3, everyone is ignoring that since 2022 (i.e, post pandemic), every other MCU movie has made at least 750 WW (and most of them didn’t get a China release, like Marvels will). 
 

IMO, just because Ant Man 3 failed doesn’t meant we should expect the rest of the MCU to struggle. The performance of MCU movies before or after don’t support that. 

the failure of Ant Man 3 has caused it to struggle though, as is evident in the weak presales of GOTG3 in its two biggest markets, which were only saved due to the movie being a critic and audience darling, something you can't count on from MCU movies, especially in this day and age where they have to be more special than they used to be.

[ZeroHour]

14 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Then she'll get killed by Kang during the Kang Dynasty cold open. Simple as that really.

The MCU has never really engaged in that sort of thing. The Hulk has a big role in The Avengers even though The Incredible Hulk didn’t exactly put up huge numbers. Ant Man has a big role in Endgame despite hailing from the MCU’s smallest box office franchise. The big death at the start of Infinity War is Loki, one of the MCU’s biggest break out characters even then. If this movie fails, her role in the team ups will likely stay similar to what they’ve planned but her odds of getting another solo outing probably go way down. 

[HummingLemon496]

@Relevation, alright, pre-tracking, are you still high on The Marvels $120m OW? Roughly the same as GOTG 3 and ATSV?

[Arlborn]

6 hours ago, Flip said:

i'm personally really interested to see how this film does in the MCU's stronghold countries: Mexico, South Korea, UK, and Brazil. To me it feels like Quantumania and GOTG3 were outliers in predicting what the future MCU will look like (most of the movies will be better than Quantumania but also worse than GOTG3), so I think The Marvels will set a benchmark for future performance of MCU solo movies (without spiderman since he's a different beast). In the top 4 OS markets (non-china) Captain Marvel did 152m. If the Marvels can pass 100m in those 4 markets (Mexico, SK, Brazil, and Britain) I think that's a success.

That's a good benchmark I think.

 

One of the reasons this movie will struggle to make similar WW numbers is because the first one had 20M from Russia and 154M from China, and that is obviously going to be severely impacted by outside factors now. So using its other top OS markets for comparisons seems like an interesting idea.

 

It still seems crazy that Captain Marvel did 38M in Brazil though! Besides Endgame, only No Way Home did more since. Heck, Quantumania did 10M and GOG3 did 18M (GOG2 had done 20M) ! So I actually think it's coming for a big drop in Brazil, but I'd be happy with close to 20M. (Thor Love and Thunder got 22M for example)

 

[HummingLemon496]

T-40 ish hours until hell breaks loose!