The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[Firepower]

5 hours ago, andersonhoran said:

They did that with Captain America in the Avengers after the performance of his first movie? 

But this is not first movie, it's a sequel to a billion dollar movie. Plus expectations and budgets are much higher than when first Captain America was made.

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

WOM could defintely play a role, but pessimistically i'm thinking $330M ($55m/$150m/$330m)

 

Starting off slow is always a red flag for MCU films...Also Guardians had very strong late growth which I doubt The Marvels will replicate 

Completely agreed. This movie is fucked big time with sales this awful.

[Zakiyyah6]

The name isn't great but it is not the main problem. The Marvels is fighting for its life because Marvel were so focused on making Captain Marvel inspirational and aspirational to certain people who have shallow reads on female characters that they forgot to give her a real personality, likability and rooting factor. She's just a bland action figure. You see in the footage that we've seen of the sequel that they are desperately trying to fix that in the sequel and I hope that they do, box office be damned. 

[ThomasNicole]

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

We can't possibly have this "MCU is dead" conversation for every other project.

Sure about that?

[Firepower]

3 hours ago, Maggie said:

[TheFlatLannister]

9 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

50m would be an unmitigated catastrophe. With the same legs as Wakanda Forever, it would pass 125m perhaps.

 

Unlike Wakanda Forever, this has 1 week of PLF vs 5 for that movie.

 

And is being released in a month which has 3 other blockbuster movies that are targeting female demo.

 

For Wakanda Forever, the next movie that opened $30m+ and was from a rival studio was M3GAN, released 8 weeks later.

 

Yikes. That would be a Flash-tier bomb.

Thanksgiving + Christmas szn + smaller OW...I think this will have decent legs (2.5x+) unless its catastrophically bad. 

 

As I've been hammering at for the past few months, the legs were never my concern, it was always OW which would set the tone for its entire run

Edited October 11, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[ThomasNicole]

 

 

Honestly, unless something insane happens this is clearly opening with 70-ish at most. The first movie have an adjusted opening at +160M, so it’s kinda safe to say it’ll be a huge disappointment. Despite that, a movie this big hardly fail due to one reason alone. 
 

IMO, it’s probably a bunch of factors together:

 

- making people pay to watch something is harder than ever since pandemic; 

- MCU is very obviously in a troubled moment with a lot of uncertainty and too many lesser received projects in a row, which makes people more cynical and demanding towards them; 

- weirdos is sadly making their hate agenda against it for years now because they’re just a bunch of racists who hates women:

- the allegedly related projects for streaming like Ms Marvel kinda flopped; 

- women seems more interested in other types of representation about them with stories like Barbie;

- the genre itself is saturated and in the classic point where many genres ended up before: people still liked it but they’re not obsessed anymore to watch everything, so a few projects will succeed while a lot more will disappoint simply because general audiences doesn’t care that much anymore. 
 

The name can be a factor as well, but i would bet the reason for the awful presales is probably all above together + the bad timing of dropping sales in the Swift week.

Edited October 11, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

We can't possibly have this "MCU is dead" conversation for every other project.

When was the last time the MCU had the sequel to a movie that opened to $155m DOM tracking to open to $70m optimistically?
 

Every MCU sequel from 2010-2021 except for AoU, which was the sequel to literally the highest opener of all time, out-opened their predecessor.

 

The whole operation is spiraling down fast. A course correction is desperately needed, or else the superhero will go the way of the western. DC is already beyond saving so only hope is from Marvel.

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

When was the last time the MCU had the sequel to a movie that opened to $155m DOM tracking to open to $70m optimistically?
 

Every MCU sequel from 2010-2021 except for AoU, which was the sequel to literally the highest opener of all time, out-opened their predecessor.

 

The whole operation is spiraling down fast. A course correction is desperately needed, or else the superhero will go the way of the western. DC is already beyond saving so only hope is from Marvel.

I think when people say something is dead the fanboys usually take it literally, like they’re not being produced anymore or not being watched at all. 
 

But realistically, it’s all about what it’s used to be. Marvel usually was the big thing every year, their movie always dominated the culture conversation. In that sense yes Marvel is dead, they expanded too much and now we have projects both in theaters and on streaming and they’re failing to be the centerpiece of cultural dominance like they used to do consistently. 
 

For 2 years in a row they’re far from the biggest things out there, next year doesn’t really looks much different (even if i think the slate for next year seems better than this year), the productions are kinda chaotic and a lot of the discourse around them these days is exactly about how messy they are. 
 

When people say Marvel is dead they’re just reducing this whole discussion to a simple phrase, not actively saying they’re over. Kinda like Star Wars is also dead compared to what it was just 7 years ago.

Edited October 11, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Firepower]

I have a single answer why MCU is dying: streaming shows. The same with Star Wars actually. In both cases streaming shows ruined their respective franchises, diminishing them from events to just content, often low quality one.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Firepower

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Wonder which will drop harder from their predecessors this or Aquaman

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Wonder which will drop harder from their predecessors this or Aquaman

The Marvels will definitely drop harder. Even if Aquaman is tracking poorly the excuse is going to be "well the first one also had a low opening"

[Arlborn]

3 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

We can't possibly have this "MCU is dead" conversation for every other project.

It''s like you haven't been a member for over a decade...

 

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

 

The whole operation is spiraling down fast. A course correction is desperately needed, or else the superhero will go the way of the western

You think Disney's going to shut down Marvel Studios? Soon?

[toutvabien]

They better female gaze the shit out of the Park Seo-joon character, push the Disney Princess-y vibe of his thing with Carol, get this to blow up on fem TikTok and get a thirst watch "WoM" boost.

[Bob Train]

5 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

You think Disney's going to shut down Marvel Studios? Soon?

Nah, but production of content will slow down, a lot.

 

And if the quality is not upped by doing that then they will have to fast-track a reboot.

 

But they will still keep making Marvel stuff as it's easily their strongest IP.

[The GOAT]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

$50m-$60m unless this has excellent late growth. Jat, Porthos, and inceptionzq numbers are dismal 

[Valencia]

1 hour ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Wonder which will drop harder from their predecessors this or Aquaman

 

Marvels.

 

Aquaman will be saved from that embarrassment by Christmas legs.

[MovieMan89]

A 70m OW is it gets great reviews scenario rn. It’s not touching that without raves. 

[Zakiyyah6]

The reviews are going to be very interesting for this film. I hope for the best but I expect the worse. For some reason I just have 64% on Rotten Tomatoes running through my head.