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Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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On 7/3/2020 at 5:35 PM, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

How wild would it be if Disney finally gets their Best Picture Oscar because of Hamilton, a decidedly political work that had to be (slightly) censored just to avoid an R rating? If the first streaming service to win Best Picture isn't Netflix?

 

A Best Actor nomination from a filmed play has happened before, so there's precedent. Hamilton was scheduled to be released in movie theaters but not until 2021. So far, AMPAS has only granted an exception to movies that were scheduled for theaters this year but got their releases canceled. It might end up not even being eligible for Oscars, but if it is...

 

In a year with a full slate, I doubt Hamilton would have a chance...but it's not a normal year. And celebrities already absolutely loved Hamilton, even before...

 

On 7/3/2020 at 5:53 PM, filmlover said:

If it qualifies, it wouldn't surprise me if Hamilton ends up a major player in this diluted year. Maybe the actual movie adaptation won't be so inevitable anymore since it would have a lot to live up to, though the box office potential would be too tempting since this isn't gonna have the chance to play in theaters aside from a Fathom Events thing.

 

On 7/3/2020 at 7:09 PM, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Since seeing the musical live, I have had doubts about it working as a movie in real world settings. It thrives in the stage environment but it's always a question with musical adaptation, if non-fans can roll with the unreality in same way. 

 

Who knows how hard Disney would campaign Hamilton this season? But it may not need much of that, and as unorthodox as a filmed stage show would be as an contender here, I can picture Oscar voters still being more comfortable with that winning vs. an animated movie. We'll know it's a threat when the hitpieces about its accuracy start getting recycled on the awards sites.



Though eligibility rules were amended in April to allow films with planned theatrical releases to compete, according to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, “Recorded stage productions are not eligible for consideration.”

While “Give ‘em Hell, Harry,” a recording of the one-man stage play of the same name, earned an Oscar nomination for best actor for James Whitmore in 1976, the rules changed in 1997 when language was added to the documentary category that disqualified recorded stage performances.

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22 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

I read this article twice, I thought I had missed something but I see I'm not the only who didn't find it thorough. No, Hamilton can't compete as a doc, but was that really what people were asking? 

 

 

They changed the rules overall after "Give 'Em Hell Harry". 

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Read the whole thread/replies:

 

 

Basically the rule against filmed stage shows being Oscsr eligible is only specific to documentaries. AMPAS has never restricted such works from consideration in other categories, as evidenced by the Academy's own collections of eligible movies/performers for past years (even if they didn't get nominated, ultimately).

 

 

I am always here for Oscar drama and a Hamilton eligibility debate would really liven up a pretty thin awards season...

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I have no opinion on Hamilton's quality but I don't get why anyone would want to give it the biggest movie prize around. I get that it is appealing as an entity to oscar voters because rich white people love their hip musicals, but it's still just a filmed play. 

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52 minutes ago, Joel M said:

I have no opinion on Hamilton's quality but I don't get why anyone would want to give it the biggest movie prize around. I get that it is appealing as an entity to oscar voters because rich white people love their hip musicals, but it's still just a filmed play. 

Such is the power of Hamilton. After finally watching it via this filmed recording, it's understandable.

 

LMM has apparently also said that he's not keen on an actual movie adaptation, so this might very well be it as far as this property ever having a shot at Oscar love is concerned. After watching it it's easy to see where those concerns come from, not sure how they would be able to pull this off (not to mention there's probably trepidation going around about which plays can translate to the screen and which ones can't in a post-Cats world).

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4 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Read the whole thread/replies:

 

 

 

it's happening. looks like Disney wants it.

 

https://www.vulture.com/2020/07/the-hamilton-movie-wont-be-eligible-at-next-years-oscars.html

Quote

 

Update 7/7: Disney is not throwing away its shot to get Hamilton some film trophies. According to Vanity Fair, the studio plans to submit the project for various guild awards and let them decide on its eligibility. Disney also reportedly plans to submit the streaming movie to the Academy anyway, possibly with the argument that numerous stand-up comedy films have previously been eligible. The matter may rest on whether the process behind the creation of the Disney+ Hamilton — which was cobbled together from multiple Broadway shows and a performance done for close-ups without an audience — counts as “unfiltered” or not. For those who want a concrete answer, you’ll just have to wait for it.

 

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i personally would have no problem with the Hamilton film being eligible. i dislike limiting the idea of what makes a film a film when it meets all the screening eligibility requirements. though i did my film studies dissertation on concert films, of which I suppose Hamilton is one, and i wish there was more love for them in general. A lot more craft in the good ones than just pointing a camera at a stage.

 

it's probably not even a threat for best picture or anything since i'm sure a lot of people in the academy would look down on it too. maybe a couple acting nods if there's not a lot of competition if it does end up being eligible.

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This can be exploited later if everyone just starts making recordings of good plays from years ago in the hopes of having those recordings compete for Oscars. And it’s not like this was a play that failed with the tonys and that it needs more exposure from Oscars or anything 

 

 

outside of the actual play, I could only see this getting editing/cinematography nom if it was eligible? 
 

comparing live broadway acting to movie acting is not fair imo because it seems to me that giving a great performance live is a lot harder than giving one in previously shot movies but what do I know.

Edited by RealLyre
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5 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

This can be exploited later if everyone just starts making recordings of good plays from years ago in the hopes of having those recordings compete for Oscars.

Don't know if they'll try to compete for Oscars but this is sure to happen. Already mentioned in the other thread that it was confirmed there's an original cast recording of The Book of Mormon (which, like Hamilton, is another super popular musical that jumpstarted a bunch of movie/TV careers) shot back in 2011 that will surely spark a bidding war to release it. If there is a recording of the original Broadway run from 2003 maybe there's a shot of Wicked being released, especially now that the movie adaptation seems to have been put on the backburner again.

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10 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

book of mormon or wicked just wouldn't compete at the oscars. as filmed plays or as standard movies. Hamilton is a whole different cultural thing. it wouldn't lead to a trend.

Wicked seems just as much of a cultural phenomenon as Hamilton. Probably even moreso worldwide.

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Wicked seems just as much of a cultural phenomenon as Hamilton. Probably even moreso worldwide.

i didn't say hamilton was more popular. i just said it was different. the way it was received culturally and it got talked about is very different. wicked got mediocre reviews. it lost to Avenue Q at the Tonys. it wouldn't get awards traction.

Edited by CoolioD1
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On 7/14/2020 at 12:59 PM, grim22 said:

There's not going to be an Oscars for this year.

I agree 100%. Next Oscars will count for two years worth of films.

 

I also take back my prediction of Tenet winning best picture. I fully expect WB to push it to 2021 now. No more two-week delays. 

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