Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

[Cmasterclay]

Hugh Jackman draw power >>>>>>> Ryan Reynolds draw power, though I will admit that Free Guy has more marketing and an easier hook.

 

If Reynolds is the most overrated draw in Hollywood, I actually think the leading man version of Jackman (not Chappie/Eddie the Eagle Jackman) is the most underrated.

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

If the situation with Delta stays exactly the same - more cases but also better vaccinations - my predictions for August are:

 

Suicide Squad - 32m OW

Respect - 14m OW

Free Guy - 11m OW

Don't Breathe - 13m OW

Reminiscence - 12m OW

Candyman - 19m OW

 

 

I'm not usually big on exact predictions instead of ranges, but I think it is important to calibrate expectations in advance these days and adjust based on the health and market situation.

I'll go with:

 

Suicide Squad: 30M

 

Free Guy: 25M

Respect: 12M

Don't Breathe: 11M

 

Paw Patrol: 10M

The Protege: 8M

Night House: 6M

Reminiscence: 5M

 

Candyman: 10M

 

I don't see Delta impacting the box office more than a weak slate; aside from potential over performances with the August 13 releases, the second half of the month looks dire for hits. The messaging for vaccinated people on Delta has been inconsistent to the point where not many are concerned by updated guidelines, and cases will likely start declining in 3-4 weeks.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Hugh Jackman draw power >>>>>>> Ryan Reynolds draw power, though I will admit that Free Guy has more marketing and an easier hook.

 

If Reynolds is the most overrated draw in Hollywood, I actually think the leading man version of Jackman (not Chappie/Eddie the Eagle Jackman) is the most underrated.

I think Reminiscence is going to be a bomb for the ages between a confusing trailer and HBO Max release. At least Hugh has a potential Oscar with The Son next year.

 

Free Guy has been getting strong early reactions and is tracking well. An over performance like Jungle Cruise isn't impossible.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Hugh Jackman draw power >>>>>>> Ryan Reynolds draw power, though I will admit that Free Guy has more marketing and an easier hook.

 

If Reynolds is the most overrated draw in Hollywood, I actually think the leading man version of Jackman (not Chappie/Eddie the Eagle Jackman) is the most underrated.

Reminiscence feels like a dump tbh. I'm not expecting much.

[Cmasterclay]

I think all of these predictions are fair but I will die on the hill that y'all are wild underestimating Candyman.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Reminiscence feels like a dump tbh. I'm not expecting much.

I got the trailer alot during the Finals but didn't realize it was HBO Max release for some reason. I'd drop it to 8m based on that, but think it can do more than Green Knight/Stillwater.

 

I thought Free Guy was PA.

[elcaballero]

What's the expected domestic/international split for PA again?

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think all of these predictions are fair but I will die on the hill that y'all are wild underestimating Candyman.

I'd like to be wrong on it, but current tracking is 9-14M. It's a niche enough horror franchise to the point where Peele's brand feels diluted.

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think all of these predictions are fair but I will die on the hill that y'all are wild underestimating Candyman.

I hope so 😅

 

I agree with what someone said, pre-pandemic I think Candyman was poised for a $50m+ opening. 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I got the trailer alot during the Finals but didn't realize it was HBO Max release for some reason. I'd drop it to 8m based on that, but think it can do more than Green Knight/Stillwater.

 

I thought Free Guy was PA.

Nope, Free Guy is the first Disney/Fox release that's doing a 45 day window.

 

Speaking of which, I have no idea why Disney stopped marketing Night House in theaters once it was delayed a month. The trailer was at everything in April and May, but I haven't seen it anywhere since AQP.

Edited August 1, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'd like to be wrong on it, but current tracking is 9-14M. It's a niche enough horror franchise to the point where Peele's brand feels diluted.

To be fair, and I'm saying this as a white guy, but because of my hometown and friend group I tend to overestimate films that appeal to a black audience, and Candyman obviously is one. But I don't think I overestimate it THAT much. When the first trailer dropped it was like dropping a bomb on my social feeds. Everyone shared it.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Cmasterclay

[Eric the Ape]

14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The trailer for Free Guy made me want to drive my car off a bridge and Ryan Reynolds is the most overrated box office "star" on the planet, but I very well could have blinders on here so fair enough.

The tea is that Free Guy is surprisingly good and better than the trailers indicate. I know early critic reviews are always glowing, but the review embargo drops a week before release, so this seems like the real dea

[Legion Again]

Come to think of it, TSS true FSS is not even a lock to top JC next weekend. Though probably will.

[ThomasNicole]

If Free Guy is the crowd pleaser reactions implied, i can easily see this one overperforming just like Jungle Cruise. And this one is theatrical exclusive too.

 

Reviews will drop next thursday, very early, let's see how things go.

 

Reminiscence have an interesting trailer (for my taste), and Lisa Joy is very talented so maybe the movie itself is good, but seems a little restricted so i doubt will do much.

 

Candyman should do fine, it's a horror movie and probably a cheap one, with good reviews i can see this one doing around Old numbers or better.

[filmlover]

I thought Candyman had potential when its trailer first landed pre-COVID but it's now coming at the end of a horror-filled summer and there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of interest actually there as we get closer to release. I dunno, perhaps the movies that were touted to be the surprise hits of the summer 2020 movie season that would have been (Candyman, In the Heights, etc.) were destined to disappoint their studios, we'll never know.

[Cmasterclay]

I do think Candyman is going to get a review boost, because I have it on fairly good authority from a couple friends that it is pretty great. But it's def in a dump spot marketing and date wise.

[charlie Jatinder]

Free Guy will open bigger than Hitman's Wife Bodyguard $16.7M.

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Come to think of it, TSS true FSS is not even a lock to top JC next weekend. Though probably will.

JC may be $15-16M. TSS should be $18-19M atleast.

[Maggie]

Free Guy will surprise. Reminiscence is DOA, unfortunately for Rebecca Ferguson. ugh. She has the worst luck

Edited August 1, 2021 by Maggie

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

JC may be $15-16M. TSS should be $18-19M atleast.

JC could go 17-18 imo, and TSSTFSS possibly as low as 16 or so, though that’s definitely not the center of my range.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Lokis Legion