Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[EmpireCity]

50 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Indie movies are harder to get financed than ever. 

 

I keep hearing this over and over for years, but every time I look at the reality there are a kajillion indie and non-studio movies being produced and released.  

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I think it's just rumors at the moment. The only movie confirmed to premiere at the Academy Museum right now is Last Night in Soho (which will be the first movie premiere there on the 25th).

 

The Academy Museum’s First Film Premiere Is ‘Last Night in Soho’ – Deadline

The museum is quickly becoming the hottest event space in the city. WIF will hold its annual awards gala there next week followed by the premieres of “House of Gucci,” Ridley Scott’s drama starring Lady Gaga, and Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley.”

 

https://variety.com/gallery/the-academy-museum-of-motion-pictures-robert-pattinson-h-e-r/

 

[Plain Old Tele]

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Besides while I think the shifting in viewing habits like @Porthos isn’t just due to box office trends that has been set up for decades arguably but a combination of a pandemic taking away the older demographics, the noticeable shift to PLFs screenings, a cascade of multiple streaming options with some more successful than others and bad experience with theaters/pricing making home more luxurious has made the shift more apparent. Not to mention with physical media dying kind of hurt longevity.

 

However, I don’t think it’s the end. While if it wasn’t obvious in 2017, that Disney basically used Fox for just more IP and to absorb a competitor, not to survive in a streaming world, there’s still a lot of studios commited to both the theatrical experience and mid budgeted films like Universal as evidenced with not F9 being the sole savior but mid sized hits like Old, Candyman, and Halloween Kills for instance still generating strong revenue, as well as investing big in names like M. Night Shamalyan, Jordan Peele and now Christoper Nolan and it’s clear they’re continuing investing in mid budget films as they know it helps separate them.
 

Same for Sony, while 2021 hasn’t had a major hit for them outside of Venom 2, is still clearly investing in the mid budget film, as evidenced by paying big for the J-Law’s comedy. I don’t think it’s necessarily the end for mid budget fare despite a gloomy outlook as there’s a lot of mid budget films in 2022 that are likely to be big hits.

What’s “a lot”, though… three? Four? I figure before the decade is out at least one of those will be bought/absorbed by either a big streamer or another studio. 
 

What’s worse is that all the mini-majors that used to exist were a major source for non-tentpoles (since those were too expensive to make).

 

[Cmasterclay]

Right now, we should be concerned. But there's a few opportunities in the next few months to reverse that concern. If Gucci, West Side Story, Richard, Nightmare Alley, Soho, Licorice Pizza, Belfast, and whatever else ALL flop....yeah. That's bad news bears.

[Valonqar]

14 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

It's weird that this sentiment is so common when it seems like Dune will at least do "fine."

 

It straight-up bombing at this point seems unlikely (except in China, which isn't all that surprising).

 

Ignore hot takes. In the wake of The Last Duel, a true undisputed bomb unlike anything we've seen in a long time, calling a movie that has already made 130M from half of its OS markets is borderline trolling. Dune is doing fine. It will make more than BR2049 so naturally those who claimed it would make less now have to shift their goalpost. 

[EmpireCity]

32 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Time for Dune to join the pile of would-be fantasy film series that never got a proper chance. A shame, really.

 

We're probably going to lose Daddy Denis to the Netflix machine too at this rate.

 

This post is complete horseshit.  

[Nerfy]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

With this Supreme Court, I don't expect the Paramount decree to last much longer. Monopolies for everyone.

It's already gone. No one has bought a chain yet because it is viewed as a money sink, and the memers inflated AMC value to the sky. If I had to predict someone buying a chain it would probably be Amazon, as they don't seem to mind losing money in one arm of their business as long as they can grow their overall footprint.

[EmpireCity]

Man, so many of you are way way to antsy to make declarative statements way way too early.  

 

There are still billions wearing masks and haven't been vaccinated yet.  Wait until this time next year or even 2023 to see how things look going forward.  I guarantee you it is going to be a lot more positive than you think.  

 

Also, everyone keeps talking about money and flops, but don't forget that studios have a ton more leverage in the back end with streaming to take chances, not the opposite.  Content is King and everyone needs content to feed the beast.  Even a box office flop like The Last Duel has a decent chance to make money over the long run due to streaming rights and the need for content.  

[Valonqar]

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

As shocked as i'm about The last Duel numbers, Bond's numbers are still more depressing. It's an adult familiar IP. To see it do this badly is crazy. Maybe the fact that it got delayed so much reduced the hype and they could never get it back

 

How so? 56% drop is decent for a frontloaded franchise, and Bond has always been an OS thing. Outside of Skyfall (over 300M), dom numbers were never spectacular. 

Edited October 17, 2021 by Valonqar

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

What’s “a lot”, though… three? Four? I figure before the decade is out at least one of those will be bought/absorbed by either a big streamer or another studio. 
 

What’s worse is that all the mini-majors that used to exist were a major source for non-tentpoles (since those were too expensive to make).

 

I was thinking Universal, Sony, and Lionsgate/Summit as the main examples, I’d include Paramount and WB but it does seem clear those two are pivoting towards tentpoles but this is a very great point, especially consider most of the mini majors have been either absorbed like Dreamworks and now MGM by something bigger and receiving a slate cut or gone. Perhaps a lot isn’t the best phrase of words in hindsight but I still think there’s hope for mid budget films still being prevalent in the future.

 

However, one factor I’m curious about is theatrical release and streaming, as I can see it become closer to reality that some streaming releases will get a wide theatrical release before being sent to streaming due to the big names going to streaming (which I do see and understand as a casualty related to the last few years).

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, Pinacolada said:

Bruh, the movie is gonna make like $700M+. It's pretty much agreed that Domestically, it's a bit of an underperformance. But internationally, it is killing it

 

What is this act?

 

Let's also not forget that we're still in a pandemic. That's effecting its numbers by at least 10% I'd say

Domestic box office still matters 

[John Marston]

11 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

How so? 56% drop is decent for a frontloaded franchise, and Bond has always been an OS thing. Outside of Skyfall (over 300M), dom numbers were never spectacular. 

 

YeH  but I like I said this Bond will be the lowest attended Bond film since Licence to Kill in the domestic market 

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, grim22 said:

With this Supreme Court, I don't expect the Paramount decree to last much longer. Monopolies for everyone.

 

I was more referring to Tele implying the death of theaters than the probable nixing of the Paramount Decree.  Theaters were around during the bad old days of the studio system and they'd still be around if/when the Paramount Decrees are rolled back.  Won't be nearly as healthy though, no. 

 

Also, frankly, I  wanted to head off a discussion about a post-Paramount Decree landscape so I did partially decide to just deflect/defer on topic.

 

Also also, I figure @Plain Old Tele is a little moody today [for very understandable reasons, IMO] and so I was cutting him some slack.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Porthos

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

YeH  but I like I said this Bond will be the lowest attended Bond film since Licence to Kill in the domestic market 

 

While some think that End of Craig Era should have given it a boost, I don't think that carries the same value as End of the Franchise. Everyone knows that Bond will go on and MGM said they'll look for a new one next year. So not a real ending.

 

Being a direct sequel to the unpopular Spectre didn't help. I guess OS was more forgiving than dom cause the franchise is more popular there. 

[Pinacolada]

12 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

YeH  but I like I said this Bond will be the lowest attended Bond film since Licence to Kill in the domestic market 

Yeah, there's a pandemic still going. Explains it don't ya think

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

55 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Right now, we should be concerned. But there's a few opportunities in the next few months to reverse that concern. If Gucci, West Side Story, Richard, Nightmare Alley, Soho, Licorice Pizza, Belfast, and whatever else ALL flop....yeah. That's bad news bears.

In normal year, King Richard would be huge. 120m domestic. HBOMAX cuts into that. To what degree, we'll find out. 

 

Gucci and West Side I still think will be ok. Spielberg is dependable and it's a Christmas time release. Can open somewhat low like 12m but still leg out respectably. Gucci has enough young appeal and an enticing premise to have a decent 5day opening. 

 

Soho I wish was A24. It's a hip, young genre Edgar Wright film but A24 is stronger brand than Focus. But maybe 7-8m can happen. It's dolby release. 

 

Nightmare Alley is a big wildcard. Normally, I'd be comfortable in calling this a hit since it has dark, horror elements that sell well to different demographics and an Oscar campaign. 

 

Licorice Pizza and Belfast are probably toast. PTA never has had a big hit. Blood is his biggest film with 40m. And Belfast is aiming for an old white audience that isn't rushing out to theaters. The 500 theater opening is a gamble. Focus did 580 with Card Counter (1m opening), 534 with Sparks Brothers (273.5k), 477 with Blue Bayou (329.8k) and 2500 with Stillwater (5.1m). With the Oscar buzz, Belfast should at least come close to 1m. Tammy Faye opened in 450 theaters and did 652k. 

[Val357]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Adult movies will still be released...but there will be half as many with half the budget, at least probably for a little while.

 

In the next year or two, you may see these adult releases like we see supers ones - spaced and set for "good" adult-film going weekends.  That's how you rebuild the market.  Spotlight them one at a time, and get older folk "regulars" back in the habit (and keep the "aging up" ones through the years with the product)...

 

Family animated has pursued this strategy all this year b/c there hasn't been the real return of the family market, either.  Since March 2020, there has been very little overlap of the animated/family movies and they have been spaced to try to get those who are going to see all of them, and not to pick and choose (and when there wasn't spacing, animated have sold off to streaming to keep the spacing)...  

I like this. This is the way.

[Cmasterclay]

 

[Last Man Standing]

Fox must be sweating about Kitbag.

[Val357]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

In normal year, King Richard would be huge. 120m domestic. HBOMAX cuts into that. To what degree, we'll find out. 

 

Gucci and West Side I still think will be ok. Spielberg is dependable and it's a Christmas time release. Can open somewhat low like 12m but still leg out respectably. Gucci has enough young appeal and an enticing premise to have a decent 5day opening. 

 

Soho I wish was A24. It's a hip, young genre Edgar Wright film but A24 is stronger brand than Focus. But maybe 7-8m can happen. It's dolby release. 

 

Nightmare Alley is a big wildcard. Normally, I'd be comfortable in calling this a hit since it has dark, horror elements that sell well to different demographics and an Oscar campaign. 

 

Licorice Pizza and Belfast are probably toast. PTA never has had a big hit. Blood is his biggest film with 40m. And Belfast is aiming for an old white audience that isn't rushing out to theaters. The 500 theater opening is a gamble. Focus did 580 with Card Counter (1m opening), 534 with Sparks Brothers (273.5k), 477 with Blue Bayou (329.8k) and 2500 with Stillwater (5.1m). With the Oscar buzz, Belfast should at least come close to 1m. Tammy Faye opened in 450 theaters and did 652k. 

What does this even mean lol?